I have created a spreadsheet of every possible qualification scenario--there are 729 different permutations on the spreadsheet. And you can check out each and every permutation. Once and for all, you can check every permutation and see what is needed for Israel to qualify. Link to Qualification Website
This is one of the best things I have ever seen on big soccer. This is the reason I come to these boards. Good work.
Y'all are making me blush. Also, Sagy helped me make sure my formulas were right, so thanks goes out to him too.
Ireland will play swiss and france in the national stadium. It is used mostly for rugby and Irish football. Landsdown road will be closed to build. They are used to the 36,000 fans,,,,, now they are going to be given 80,000 screeming die hard fans. It should give the Irish a better chance of defeating france and the swiss. On the other hand it's a new stadium for them, they might not be comfortable as they usually are.
Wednesday night (in addition to the friendly b/w Israel and Poland) is the qualification match between Cyprus and Faroe Islands. The results of this match don't matter at all--both teams are essentially eliminated already. However, one team could get lucky and steal a couple points from one of the big guys. More likely than not, that team would be Cyprus. Therefore we do have a vested interest in the outcome--we need to hope that Cyprus gets no injuries and no cards--we want them to continue at full strength!
Yea, there is a good chance that Cyprus might tie one of the better teams. Mind you that Cyprus beat Iraq in a friendly. I think they might have a chance to squeeze out. Our only mission right now is to beat Switzerland. If we do, than were hooked. If we lose or pull off too much air vs. Faore Islands,than were dukled too, but i dont think we will. We need to get as many goals as possible vs. Faroe!
Neh, this spreadsheet was easy... if I had too much time on my hands, I'd also do every permutation for each of the other uefa qualifying groups to see who our playoff opponent would likely be if we come in second...
If France, the Swiss, and Ireland make a few mistakes along the way and Israel basically wins all or most of the rest of the games....
"Most" is not likely to do it. With a total of 18 points: A victory (by anyone) in any of the other 3 big games will eliminate Israel from the top spot -> 1/27 (all games are ties) chance of a 4 way tie for first. If one team wins two big games and the third big game is a tie -> Israel is 2nd (3/27). If a team wins one big game and the other two are ties -> Israel is tied for 2nd (6/27) and GD will determine the which one goes to the playoff. All other cases (17/27) Israel is out.
they have to win on the backs of the other top 3 teams. And thats the probolem. We have a little edge since we played all the top teams, completed cyprus. Its easy to see that other than the knot we made with the top 4 teams want 1st/2nd..... cyprus is the wildcard since they may surprise... The Cyprus card is never used here and i think it should be taken very seriously... since ofcourse, it can mean, having Ireland win, and whoever is playing Cyprus lose, and have Israel get into 2nd... thats a scenario!
As for the Cyprus card, its pretty clear that if we have to root for Cyprus to draw against anyone, it would be Ireland. A draw against Switzerland or France doesn't help us all that much, but it does give us a slightly better chance if we draw against Switzerland. Cyprus is a good team--they could easily get lucky and manage a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. Of course, if we lose to Switzerland, the rest is academic--we'd literally need a miracle. With a win, its tough for us not to at least come in second. And with a draw, its in G-d's hands.
Cyprus is the wild card in the whole group. There a team that really can make it in 2nd or 3rd but really did so poorly. But they can manage to win as they did vs. Faroe ISlands, which they are trialing for there upcoming Euro 2008 tournament as well.. Lets look for a second the games that Cyprus have in the next few month(s): 07/09/2005 20:00 Cyprus - Switzerland 08/10/2005 20:00 Cyprus - Rep. Ireland 12/10/2005 20:45 France - Cyprus So pretty much is this: If Israel proves itself, goes with a tie or EVEN a win.. than all Cyprus needs to do is do what they do best. Play in there home against Switzerland and Ireland and ties them. If they tie, automatically Swiss/Ireland got 4 points off Cyprus while Israel got 6! This would secure Israel's 2nd place IF they tie. A win in Basel would be something very historic indeed. Switzerland knows that there playing against Israel and need to capitalize. Mr. Grant probably knows that he is in need of having the team become more defenceful!