With a little bit of projection, we now have a pretty good idea of which players from the first three Bradenton cycles (covering the birth years 1982-87) are likely to have significant careers with the senior team. I've broken down the data by quadrants (first half birthdays in even years, second half in even years, etc) to try to quantify the effects of some of the biases we have discussed here. In the lists below, I have also italicized the names of those players who did not attend Bradenton. Even Yr, 1st Half Odd Year, 1st Half Donovan----------Convey Beasley----------- Dempsey Onyewu---------- Rolfe Johnson---------- Clark Wynne-----------Boswell Davies------------Feilhaber Spector-----------Smith ------------------ Rogers ------------------Szetela Even Yr, 2nd Half Odd Year, 2nd Half Quaranta ---------Sturgis Mapp-------------Bradley Pierce Marshall Cooper Bornstein Gaven Not surprisingly, the thing that really stands out is the lack of players in the lower right quadrant--second half birthdays in odd years. Even the two guys in that quadrant are slight reaches and also have birthdates in July. It would seem it is the combination of being a second half birthdate (which cuts into early recognition and opportunities from ODP) and odd year (which cuts into opportunities to be chosen for Bradenton and the U17 team) that is very difficult to overcome. The table suggests players can overcome one of those biases not both. There are a couple very talented younger players (Altidore and Renken) who fall in this lower right quadrant. They may be able to overcome these obstacles, but I strongly suspect that this quadrant will continue to be very sparsely populated going forward. The final thing that stands out is the number of non-Bradenton players in the top right quadrant. Odd year players are much less likely to be selected for Bradenton, but it would appear that at least among first half birthdays that such players are able to emerge by the U20s or later. (Apologies for the improvised formatting).
All the guys on your list who attended Bradenton and were born in the second half of the year were at least medium-big, and most are 6'+. Also, Altidore of course was built like a young truck, and Renken is quite tall for his age. If you're a smaller kid born in the second half of year, you face a heck of a battle even making a Regional ODP team, never mind cracking Bradenton. But the big, fast guys seem to have a chance.
I wonder if things are changing slightly. There are a couple second half 1991s--Greg Garza and Jose Altamirano--who seem to have edged into the starting lineup for the U17s. Both are pretty small guys.
Might be. It's always going to be tough, however, because ultimately the U17 National team is built to win now, which will favor the older kids. Bradenton Residency overall might not be built to win now, Regional ODP most certainly shouldn't be built to win now (although to a large extent it is), but there's no question that the 11 players starting for the U17 National team at the Worlds will be the 11 guys who can best help the team at that moment. Thus, Altidore was very likely the best prospect in the last U17 tournament, but as the youngest player on the team he barely saw the field.
You're right, which makes me think that Altimarino, Garza and a third kid (Nick Millington who isn't starting yet but has drawn good reviews) must be pretty special to compete as munchkins against guys as much as 18 months older.
So my the best bet for my September 99 boy if he wants to play ODP is for him to play up in age to get used to playing against bigger, faster players and hope he turns out to be a superior athlete. Another reason the lower right quad is so low is the strong current in clubs to not have players play up in age even though the player is more than capable. The DOC and coaches will have a "come to Jesus" meeting with the player and his parents to break their will to do the best thing for their kid.
MO's Bradenton alumni 53% early (8/15) MO's non-Bradenton alumni 80% early (8/10) Current Bradentonites 60% early(24/40) Previous Bradenton Players ~75% early Current U-15s 80% early (40/50) Bradenton seems to be helping -- being with the kids day-to-day, they can probably see the gap between older and younger narrowing. And obviously, it's good to see the current crop looking relatively balanced. The non-Bradentonites may have more of a legacy effect from younger selection periods.
I would say, have him perceived as being highly athletic, that would your better bet. Tactically savvy will not get you as far. It is true, I do know of one very tactically savvy (and technically adept) kid who beat the odds and made Regional ODP while in the second half of the year as a U13, which is very difficult indeed -- but he played his whole life at age group at the club level. Interesting stuff, numerista. The age effect definitely lessens with age. I think you'd probably find an even higher ratio than 80% for the U14 National Pool, if they released those birthdates.
This cycle has seen improvement in the early-late birthdate ratio. However, the imbalance in odd-even year has not changed much. In this cycle 29% of the kids are odd birthyears versus 32% in the previous cycle. I think we'll have to see another cycle or two to see if the improvement in the early-late birthdate ratio is anything more than white noise.
Is this a perfectly apples-to-apples comparison? And which apples? If you factor in the total numbers of 88s and 89s invited (I think this is the most informative), I thought at this point last cycle, we were heavier on 88s than that? I agree, although even if the improvement is just a random fluctuation, it still improves this cycle's players' chance of success.
My numbers are the final totals for the 88-89 cycle. There were 43 88s who attended at least one semester and 20 89s. So 32% from that cycle were odd years (31% if one excludes Adu who was there in a prior cycle).
Thanks ... if I understand correctly, that includes latecomers like Kyle Davies and Daniel Kelly (added Fall 05), so we're probably still ahead of last cycle's pace.
Yes it includes the latecomers like Davies and Kelly. I understand 4-5 more players are being added this semester and they are not included in my numbers for this cycle. These late additions are unlikely to change our two basic conclusions, which are: 1) the later-early birthdate imbalance has been reduced this cycle and 2) the odd-even year imbalance has not been reduced.
My expectation is that by Fall 07, we will have seen a moderate improvement in both categories, possibly due to random chance.
can someone explain me how analysis of birth dates etc does help american soccer clubs to improve their performance? I don´t understand the point here. Why does it play so much role if someone was born in first half of year or in second half? I have never heard about such analysis in other countries. Or maybe I ´m not good informed.
As a LEO I'm surprised you don't understand the importance of when one is born. I bet there were more LEOs playing in the world cup than any other astrological sign.
i think I understand now what you mean. Many people born as leos are or were successful in soccer or in other area. I´m also leo well people born as Leo´s are the best, especially leons born in July. Jürgen Klinsi is also Löwe, Leo born on July 30. Look how many soccer players are leos. You are right. Now I understand the point. not only because I´m leo
You beat me to the punch: Klinsi is the most perfect German LEO. Quadrant analysis is very closely related to astrology. Both are highly advanced forms of mental masturbation. By the way, did you know that LEOs are born CEOs?
Klinsi is best German Leo, I absolutely agree. He wanted all the power and since he did not get it, he did not want the job. It is typical LEO behaviour. leos are very bossy and very successful in job...they are enthusiastic and have many good ideas....look at history how many famous people in business or in science were leos especially born in July?... leos are born to be winner...! look at Klinsi leos have really also highly mental masturbation and are curious and have positive charisma. Now I understand your analysis. Thanks for explanation. It was more than clear!. we need more players who are LEOs....
what would happen if in USMNT were only players who are in astrology Leos (lions) and they would play against Germany (in this team would be also only Leos) - Leos USA against Leos Germany?....it would be interesting match.. of course they would have leos as coaches....