Wow - shocking that CRT is old news! It's almost as if that was a weaponized disinformation campaign designed specifically to tilt elections https://t.co/Hdp504y5gU— Brooke Binkowski (@brooklynmarie) November 16, 2021
I didn't know where to put this. Popularity of Governors. New @MorningConsult state-level polling shows 9 of the 10 most popular governors in the country are Republicans, and that 6 of the 10 least popular are Democrats.https://t.co/AG1QoTs03X pic.twitter.com/vQyMOdNncg— Cameron Easley (@cameron_easley) November 18, 2021
Imagine that: states with less diversity and lower population tend to have more favorable views of their governor.
It's bad news for Democrats that the eleven least popular include four Democrats from swing states, Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Steve Sisolak (NV), Tom Wolf (PA and term-limited), and Tony Evers (WI). The four most popular governors are Republicans from states Biden won, and three of them are from MA, NH, and VT, which don't have term-limits. I wonder if Phil Scott will leave to run for Senate. Since Patrick Leahy is retiring, Scott will be more known than the Democrat with the possible exception of if the House Democrats runs for Senate since that person also won statewide. I read that Trump wants David Perdue to be a primary challenger to Brian Kemp. Some people go from governor to senator, or House to governor, but it's rare to go from senator to governor with or without time in between. Mike DeWine of OH is the only current governor who was a senator, and DeWine had 12 years in between. I went to watch Hofstra vs. South Carolina in the NCAA Women's Soccer Tournament played at Southern California (so two USC teams are there), with ads done by the Pac-12, and it opened with an ad for Glenn Youngkin, who won 17 days ago.
Republicans run on a platform of being total assholes, and they follow through. Democrats run promising to make things better, and they don't always succeed.
Every elected official in Nevada, except for Secretary of State, is a Democrat. In Nevada, the last four presidential elections have gone Democratic (and 6 of the past 8). Both Senators and three of four House reps are Democrats, State assembly is strongly Democratic (26 D, 16 R). State Senate pretty strongly Democratic (12 D, 9 R) Virginia? Governor, AG and state assembly are Republicans. Every presidential election from Nixon to GWB has gone Republican (this has changed with Obama, Clinton and Biden). House delegation is 7 D, 4 R Of course, both Senators are Democrats. Nationally, the two state are pretty close. Statewide, it seems that Virginia is more Republican than Nevada, with the Republicans controlling the Governorship, AG, assembly and 1 vote away from being tied in the Senate.
Nevada Democrats have I belive swept all statewide elective offices and they dominate the congressional delegation more than they do in VA. Some of the newly elected Democratic congresspeople from VA seemingly have a less secure grip on their seats though I don't know Nevada politics.
I'd say a couple of our House Democrats are vulnerable next year; can't think of the same for any House Republicans.
Those additional Biden votes in VA didn't get any extra electoral college votes, and apparently lots of those Biden voters didn't show up a few weeks ago. Nevada's one Republican House district (NV-2) is getting bluer every year, as Tesla hires more people at the gigafactory. It probably won't flip in 2022 and 2024 will depend on if Trump is on the ballot - the rural parts of NV-2 are very Trumpy, if he's not on the ballot, it's more likely to flip. With that said, NV-3 may flip back to Republican in 2022 - the Republicans nominated this weirdo in 2020 and the incumbent Democrat barely beat him - if a more normal candidate can win the Republican primary in 2022, they'll probably win NV-3.
Virginia is still a purple state; it's just that for the past decade-plus, the state GOP kept doubling down on exactly the sort of policies and rhetoric most likely to turn off suburban moderates in northern VA. A bit of a swing back towards the right was probably inevitable, and Youngkin had the savvy and the money to figure out how to do it without setting of the sort of alarm bells among swing voters here.
No rep No republican is vulnerable, no matter what they do. Gomert, Gosar, Bobert, Greene, Gaetz, etc etc.
Yup. Also, Don Bacon, the Republican incumbent in Nebraska's 2nd District (basically the Omaha metro area) has to walk a fine line with moderates and swing voters to keep his seat. The NE GOP so far has been smart enough to spare him a primary challenge from a Trump-friendly candidate, but if that ever changes he's in trouble.
That's usually the case; in Bacon's situation, his district is actually purple-ish and a more extreme Republican would likely lose (assuming the Nebraska Democrats don't find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again).
This is probably what Dem Pacs should actually spend money on - dirty tricks campaigns attacking GOP "moderates" from the right with astroturfed trumpers In Virginia they managed to stop that IIRC by basically refusing to have a proper primary - otherwise a Trumper likely would have won