This week I will set up the program to run the annual prediction contest for the NCAA Tournament following the same rules we have used for the past few years, which have seemed to work well. Last year, we had 18 human participants, the Committee, and a number of computerized rating systems. Hopefully, we will have lots of participants again this year. So have fun following games this week and then get ready to prove your prediction prowess! PREDICTION CONTEST RULES To participate, once the NCAA publishes the bracket, you will predict (before the first tournament game begins) who will advance from each game in the tournament from the first round through the championship. The scoring will be as follows, for each correct prediction of who advances: First Round Correct: 1 point Second Round Correct: 3 points Third Round Correct: 6 points Quarterfinals Correct: 8 points Semifinals Correct: 8 points Championship Correct: 8 points As soon as the NCAA has published the bracket, I will post a list of the first round matchups in the order they appear from top to bottom in the bracket. You will be able to use this as the starting point for your predictions. (This also will jump this topic to the top of the list as a reminder to post your predictions.) If you want to enter, you will post your predictions for the entire tournament on this thread not later than the beginning of the first Tournament game. You will post your predictions in the following format, leaving a space after each round: In order starting from the top of the first round list I have posted, post the winner of each first round game (so, you will have posted a list of 32 teams) In order, starting from the top of your list of first round winners, post the winner of each second round game (so you will have posted a list of 16 teams) In order, starting from the top of your list of second round winners, post the winner of each third round game (so you will have posted a list of 8 teams) In order, starting from the top of your list of third round winners, post the winner of each quarterfinal game (so you will have posted a list of 4 teams) In order, starting from the top of your list of quarterfinal winners, post the winner of each semifinal game (so you will have posted a list of 2 teams) Post the winner of the Championship game (so you will have posted the name of 1 team) After each round, I will post a report showing the points scored by round, the total scored by each competitor, and the competitor standings.
Here are the first round pairings in the NCAA Tournament bracket, starting at the top left of the bracket and proceeding down the left side and then down the right side. NOTE: IT WILL HELP IF YOU USE THE TEAM NAMES EXACTLY AS I HAVE LISTED THEM BELOW. SEE THE NEXT POST FOR AN ILLUSTRATION OF WHAT YOUR ENTRY SHOULD LOOK LIKE. NotreDame IllinoisChicago OhioState GeorgiaU Baylor TexasState WesternMichigan WisconsinU FloridaState Samford Lipscomb MississippiState WestVirginiaU Wagner SacredHeart Georgetown TCU Grambling IllinoisU Memphis TexasTech UTSA NorthCarolinaU TennesseeU LSU HoustonChristian SouthDakotaState IowaU Clemson Liberty TennesseeTech Vanderbilt Stanford CalPoly NorthwesternU AlabamaU BYU UtahState Pepperdine UCLA ColoradoU UtahValley Dayton Xavier WakeForest SouthCarolinaU Milwaukee MichiganState Duke Elon MaineU UCF Louisville KentuckyU CaliforniaBaptist KansasU WashingtonU MontanaU Dartmouth ArkansasU PennState Army HighPoint VirginiaU
Illustration: First Round Winners Enter 32 team names Second Round Winners Enter 16 team names Third Round Winners Enter 8 team names Quarterfinals Winners Enter 4 team names Semifinals Winners Enter 2 team names Championship Winner Enter 1 team name
First Round: NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Liberty Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier SouthCarolinaU MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU Washington ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round: NotreDame Baylor FloridaState WestVirginiaU TCU NorthCarolinaU IowaU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU ArkansasU VirginiaU Third Round: NotreDame FloridaState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Fourth Round: NotreDame TCU Stanford VirginiaU Fifth Round: Notre Dame Virginia Champion: Virginia
And just for fun, here are the average standings for those who have participated in the contest over the years:
First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford NorthwesternU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState WestVirginiaU TCU NorthCarolinaU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford BYU ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford ColoradoU Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame TCU Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner Stanford
Entry for the Committee, based on its placement of teams in the bracket. The assumption for the #1 seeds is that 1.1 is upper left, 1.4 is lower left, 1.2 is upper right, and 1.3 is lower right. It is possible the 1.2 and 1.3 are lower and upper right, but I don't think so. First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU TennesseeU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame Georgetown TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame Vanderbilt Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner NotreDame
Entry for the NCAA RPI. This includes taking the average value of home field advantage into consideration. First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState Georgetown TCU TennesseeU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford BYU ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU ArkansasU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame Georgetown TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame Vanderbilt Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame VirginiaU Championship Winner NotreDame
Entry for the KPI (aka Kevin Pauga Index). This includes taking the average value of home field advantage into consideration. The Committee uses the KPI as a supplement to the NCAA RPI if it feels it needs more input before making a decision. First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford NorthwesternU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState WestVirginiaU TCU TennesseeU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame Vanderbilt Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner NotreDame
Entry for Massey Ratings. This includes taking the average value of home field advantage into consideration. First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU TennesseeU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke Louisville WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame Georgetown TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame Vanderbilt Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner Stanford
Entry for the Balanced RPI. This includes taking the average value of home field advantage into consideration. First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford NorthwesternU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState Georgetown TCU TexasTech LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame TCU Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner Stanford
Entry using the Balanced RPI Rank and Top 50 (in the Balanced RPI) Results Rank, each weighted at 50%. First Round Winners NotreDame OhioState Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford NorthwesternU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState Georgetown TCU TexasTech IowaU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU ArkansasU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState TexasTech IowaU Stanford ColoradoU KansasU VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame TexasTech Stanford KansasU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner Stanford
Entry for PreSeason Predicted RPI Ratings. This includes taking the average value of home field advantage into consideration. The Predicted Ratings are based on teams first being ranked in order of their median Blanaced RPI ratings over the last 7 years and (2) then being assigned NCAA RPI ratings historically appropriate for those ranks. First Round Winners NotreDame OhioState Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier SouthCarolinaU MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU NorthCarolinaU IowaU Clemson Stanford UCLA ColoradoU SouthCarolinaU Duke Louisville ArkansasU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState NorthCarolinaU Clemson Stanford SouthCarolinaU Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners FloridaState NorthCarolinaU Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners FloridaState Stanford Championship Winner FloridaState
@cpthomas - Thank you for all of your time and effort in providing us with this information as well as the opportunity to participate in the tournament prediction contest. I have followed along with the seasons of a number of teams yet will take some time to look at the info. you provided before posting my predictions.
First round NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Liberty Vanderbilt Stanford NorthwesternU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second round NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState WestVirginiaU TCU NorthCarolinaU IowaU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA Xavier WakeForest Duke Louisville ArkansasU VirginiaU Third round NotreDame FloridaState TCU IowaU Stanford WakeForest Duke VirginiaU Fourth round NotreDame IowaU Stanford VirginiaU Fifth round NotreDame Stanford Champion Stanford
First Round: NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Liberty Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier SouthCarolinaU MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU Washington ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round: NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState WestVirginiaU TCU NorthCarolinaU IowaU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke Louisville Washington VirginiaU Third Round: NotreDame FloridaState NorthCarolinaU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Fourth Round: NotreDame NorthCarolinaU Stanford VirginiaU Fifth Round: Notre Dame Stanford Champion: Stanford
1st round winners Notre Dame Ohio State Baylor Wisconsin FSU MSU WVU Georgetown TCU Memphis Texas Tech UNC LSU Iowa Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford Alabama BYU UCLA Colorado Xavier Wake Forest Michigan St Duke UCF Louisville Kansas Washington Arkansas Penn State Virginia 2nd round winners Notre Dame Wisconsin FSU Georgetown TCU UNC LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA Colorado Michigan St Duke Louisville Arkansas Virginia 3rd round winners Notre Dame FSU UNC Vanderbilt Stanford Michigan St Duke Virginia Quarterfinal winners Notre Dame Vanderbilt Stanford Virginia Semifinal Winners Notre Dame Stanford Champion Stanford
My annual login: 1st round winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WesternMichigan FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis UTSA NorthCarolinaU LSU SouthDakotaState Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU 2nd round winners NotreDame Baylor FloridaState Georgetown Memphis NorthCarolinaU LSU Clemson Stanford UCLA Xavier WakeForest UCF Louisville WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState Memphis Clemson Stanford WakeForest Louisville WashingtonU Quarterfinal winners FloridaState Clemson Stanford Louisville Semifinal Winners FloridaState Stanford Champion FloridaState
First Round Winners NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU NorthCarolinaU LSU Clemson Stanford UCLA ColoradoU WakeForest Duke Louisville WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState NorthCarolinaU Clemson Stanford WakeForest Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners NotreDame Clemson Stanford VirginiaU Semifinals Winners NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner Stanford
First Round Winners: NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Liberty Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier SouthCarolinaU MichiganState Duke UCF KentuckyU KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners: NotreDame WisconsinU MississippiState WestVirginiaU TCU TexasTech LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU Third Round Winners: NotreDame MississippiState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners: NotreDame TCU Stanford Duke Semifinals Winners: NotreDame Stanford Championship Winner: Stanford
It looks like the first match of the tournament is scheduled for tomorrow (Friday) 3:00 pm EST, 2:00 pm CST, 1:00 pm MST, and Noon PST. So that is the deadline for posting entries. If you miss by a bit but have not checked scores yet, go ahead and enter anyway. We want as many entries as we can get!
NotreDame OhioState Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier SouthCarolinaU MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU -------------------------- NotreDame Baylor FloridaState Georgetown TCU TexasTech LSU Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU SouthCarolinaU Duke Louisville ArkansasU VirginiaU -------------------------- NotreDame Florida State TCU Vanderbilt Stanford ColoradoU Duke VirginiaU --------------------- NotreDame TCU Stanford Duke ------------------- NotreDame Stanford ------------------- NotreDame
First Round Winners: NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech UNC LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU UCLA ColoradoU Xavier Wake Forest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners: NotreDame WisconsinU Florida State Georgetown TCU North Carolina Iowa Vanderbilt Stanford UCLA ColoradoU MichiganState Duke Louisville Arkansas VirginiaU Third Round Winners: NotreDame Florida State TCU Iowa Stanford MichiganState Duke VirginiaU Quarterfinals Winners: Florida State TCU Stanford Virginia Semifinals Winners: Florida State Stanford Championship Winner: Stanford
1st Round - WINNERS NotreDame GeorgiaU Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech TennesseeU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU Pepperdine ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU 2nd Round NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU TennesseeU IowaU Vanderbilt Stanford Pepperdine ColoradoU WakeForest Duke KansasU WashingtonU VirginiaU 3rd round (Quarter-Finals) NotreDame FloridaState TCU Vanderbilt Stanford WakeForest Duke VirginiaU 4th Round (Semi-Finals) NotreDame TCU Stanford VirginiaU 5th Round (Final) NotreDame Stanford Champion Stanford
First Round Winners NotreDame OhioState Baylor WisconsinU FloridaState MississippiState WestVirginiaU Georgetown TCU Memphis TexasTech NorthCarolinaU LSU IowaU Clemson Vanderbilt Stanford AlabamaU BYU Pepperdine ColoradoU Xavier WakeForest MichiganState Duke UCF Louisville KansasU WashingtonU ArkansasU PennState VirginiaU Second Round Winners NotreDame WisconsinU FloridaState Georgetown TCU NorthCarolinaU LSU Vanderbilt Stanford BYU Xavier MichiganState Duke Louisville ArkansasU VirginiaU Third Round Winners NotreDame FloridaState TCU LSU Stanford MichiganState Duke ArkansasU Quarterfinals Winners FloridaState TCU Stanford Duke Semifinals Winners FloridaState Stanford Championship Winner Stanford