Mmm, what level of doublethink is this? You made a prediction that was so deliberately wrong that it could have later confirmed that you were right at not making prediction based on your evaluations that you deliberately made wrong (actually to make other people feel better ) .
Preseason predicted RPI is 3rd? Nothing better represents “unencumbered by the thought process” than that.
I don't know where the Preseason Predicted RPI will end up, but its success so far may indicate something significant (notice my use of the waffle word "may"). Although teams' ranks vary from year to year, the data show they typically vary around a mean. When looking at the means of teams over different periods of time, the period whose mean best predicts where teams will end up next year is the last 7 years. That is the period the Preseason Predicted RPI uses. So if a team in a particular year is significantly better or poorer than its 7 year mean, you can reasonably expect it will revert to its mean over time. Now and then, a team may have its mean change -- although one has to wait a good period of time to see if that happens. But when you look at teams' ratings over long periods of time, that seldom happens and what looks like a permanent change often ends up not being permanent. North Carolina this year may be a good illustration of teams tending to perform around their mean. With all the changes in their roster from last year, one might have thought that their performance would plummet -- indeed, if you frequent the UNC thread, you would have seen some UNC fans expecting them to be down quite a bit this year. Their 7 year average, however, said they would be at #2. The gist of this is that players come and go, but teams tend to stay in the same area year after year. The way I think about this is, its the overall "program" that makes the team, with some variation from year to year due to a number of factors including who the players are, but the variations ordinarily stay in the vicinity of the mean. This is pretty consistent with how the Tournament has played out this year. Of the eight teams still in the Tournament, 5 of them -- North Carolina, Penn State, Stanford, Southern California, and Duke -- were in the Top 8 based on the Preseason Predicted RPI. Notre Dame was at 12, Virginia Tech at 27, and Wake Forest at 33.
Here are the standings through today's quarterfinal games, so only the Duke v Virginia Tech game left tomorrow. TimB4Last is crushing the opposition.
On looking at the predictions for the remaining games by those near the top of the standings, there still is a lot up in the air. It definitely is not certain who will win the contest.
I'll be going down next weekend. I thought that UNC would get dumped by FSU this last weekend, but Vanderbilt changed all that and so only have a chance to get Wake Forest to the final game, but I put FSU to take it all and there's no way for me to move up to the top score. Others will fight it out! Cheers!
Soccerhunter - travel safe and enjoy the games live !! I will be watching the games at home - hoping for a Wake Forest - Duke final -- I chose Wake Forest as the champion (I have ties to the Demon Deacons program) yet it would be a positive feel good story to have Robbie Church/Duke win in his final season coaching them - he is an excellent coach and top-class person
Sorry for the lateness of the current standings, but here they are, with only the Championship game to go:
@Soccerhunter is not leading, this year, but he's always up there with the good ones, as he deserves. Way to go, @Soccerhunter!
Only Stargell 27 had North Carolina winning the Tournament, congratulations for that! In the points competition, Tim B4Last is the winner. jusdoit and Soccerhunter are runners up. After them come, in order, the Balanced RPI Rank/Top 50 Results Rank combined (each weighted at 50%), which is the best single predictor I have of which teams will get at large selections; and the PreSeason Predicted RPI. Thanks everyone for participating. Relative to the Committee and the full season rating systems, the humans did very well this year.
Congrats to TimB4Last for brilliant foresight to take the first place! FUN! and.... THANK YOU CP!!! I (and I am sure others) are grateful for all you do for women's D1 college soccer. ...and then you graciously took over the NCAA D1 Prediction Contest which many of us enjoy. Cheers!
Thank you, CP, for putting this together. I haven't paid as close attention this year to the game as I usually do and it showed in my placing in the contest. I believe it was my worst showing since I have been participating. I am doing equally as bad in the men's contest though my overall pick to win it all, Ohio State, is still alive and in the final 4.
I'd like to thank CP and all of my fellow contestants - including the computer-generated ones. Thanks, CP for including those, as they provide an interesting point of reference. Happy to win, of course, though not sure I can explain how. I would say my picks were lucky but solid (so not flukey). Four out of four quarterfinal picks: Duke narrowly defeated Virginia Tech, 1-0 UNC over Penn State in extra time Wake Forest over USC on PKs, after defeating Ohio State 1-0 Stanford 2-0 over ND, Stanford having survived near-defeat v UConn and PKs v Arkansas So 4 of 4 could easily have been 2 of 4 (or worse), and (my Champion pick) Wake really came through for me (until the bitter end). [Last year I picked Clemson, who couldn't get past FSU]. Some keys (from my perspective): Recognizing the overall strength of the (expanded) ACC. As an outsider, I view (at least the stronger) ACC teams as akin to pre-professional programs - talented and deep. Recognizing that this might not be Florida State's year. Understanding this year the (wacky) 2nd/3rd round 'pod' system, which makes (especially traveling) teams play two difficult games on short rest - a big advantage to the deeper teams (generally playing at home, presumably an earned advantage). Avoiding personal favorites, except one (which cost me, naturally). Sticking mostly with the script, the stronger/favored teams, playing at home. Biggest Surprise: Only one of us (Stargell27) chose North Carolina to win it all, when I view, based on history/pedigree, UNC as a team that is always a threat to win it all.