Prediction Contest: 2024 NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Nov 6, 2024.

  1. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Does anyone know when the first games start tomorrow? I haven’t had a chance to look at the games much and want to make sure I get my picks done in time.
     
  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The deadline is 4:00 pm East Coast time.
     
  3. From the Spot

    From the Spot New Member

    QPR
    England
    Oct 26, 2022
    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SantaClara
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    StLouis
    WisconsinU
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Pepperdine
    Rutgers
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    KentuckyU
    WashingtonU
    MississippiState

    Second Round
    Duke
    TexasU
    Georgetown
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississippiState

    Third Round
    Duke
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    MississippiState

    Quarterfinals
    Duke
    NorthCarolinaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU

    Semifinals
    Duke
    ArkansasU

    Championship
    Duke
     
  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just to show why I don't gamble:

    First Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SantaClara
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    KansasU
    WisconsinU
    Princeton
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    CaliforniaU
    ConnecticutU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    KentuckyU
    UtahState
    MississippiState

    Second Round Winners

    Duke
    MichiganState
    Georgetown
    UCLA
    SantaClara
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    KansasU
    Princeton
    OhioState
    WakeForest
    CaliforniaU
    Stanford
    KentuckyU
    MississippiState

    Third Round Winners

    Duke
    UCLA
    SantaClara
    TCU
    KansasU
    OhioState
    CaliforniaU
    MississippiState

    Quarterfinals Winners

    UCLA
    SantaClara
    OhioState
    CaliforniaU

    Semifinals Winners

    SantaClara
    OhioState

    Championship Winner

    OhioState
     
  5. Tom81

    Tom81 Member+

    Jan 25, 2008
    1st round
    Duke
    LSU
    Mich St
    Texas
    Iowa
    Georgetown
    Virginia Tech
    UCLA

    UNC
    BYU
    MInnesota
    South Carolina
    Penn State
    TCU
    Vandy
    FSU

    USC
    Kansas
    Wisconsin
    Virginia
    Ohio St
    Auburn
    Colorado
    Wake Forest

    Arkansas
    California
    Rutgers
    Stanford
    ND
    Kentucky
    Utah State
    Miss St

    2nd Round
    Duke
    Texas
    Iowa
    UCLA

    UNC
    South Carolina
    TCU
    FSU

    USC
    Virginia
    Ohio St
    Wake Forest

    Arkansas
    Stanford
    ND
    Miss St

    3rd round
    Duke
    UCLA

    UNC
    FSU

    USC
    Wake Forest

    Arkansas
    Miss St

    4th round
    Duke
    FSU
    Wake Forest
    Miss St

    Semis
    FSU
    Wake Forest

    Finals
    FSU
     
  6. justdoit

    justdoit Member

    Aug 11, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Duke
    TexasTech

    MichiganState
    TexasU

    IowaU
    Georgetown

    VirginiaTech
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    BYU

    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU

    PennState
    TCU

    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    KansasU

    WisconsinU
    Princeton


    OhioState
    Auburn

    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest

    ArkansasU
    Pepperdine

    ConnecticutU
    Stanford

    NotreDame
    KentuckyU

    WashingtonU
    MississippiState
    ————————————————
    Duke
    TexasU

    Georgetown
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU

    TCU
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    Princeton

    OhioState
    WakeForest

    ArkansasU
    Stanford

    NotreDame
    MississippiState
    ———————————————————
    Duke
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest

    Stanford
    NotreDame
    ————————————————-/
    Duke
    FloridaState

    WakeForest
    Stanford
    ————————————————-
    FloridaState
    WakeForest
    —————————————————
    FloridaState
     
  7. TWSWBC

    TWSWBC New Member

    Jan 12, 2015
    1st Round

    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SantaClara
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    Kansas
    WisconsinU
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Pepperdine
    Rutgers
    Stanford

    NotreDame
    KentuckyU
    Utah State
    MississippiState


    Second Round
    Duke
    Michigan State
    Iowa
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    VirginiaU
    Auburn
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississippiState


    Third Round
    Duke
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    MississippiState


    Quarterfinals

    Duke
    Florida state
    Southern California
    Mississippi State


    Semifinals

    Duke
    Southern California


    Championship

    Southern California
     
  8. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    1st Round
    Duke
    TexasTech
    Michigan State
    Texas
    Iowa
    Georgetown
    Virginia Tech
    UCLA
    UNC
    BYU
    Minnesota
    South Carolina
    Penn State
    TCU
    Vandy
    FSU
    USC
    Kansas
    Wisconsin
    Virginia
    Ohio State
    Auburn
    Georgia
    Wake Forest
    Arkansas
    California
    Rutgers
    Stanford
    Notre Dame
    Kentucky
    Washington
    Mississippi State

    2nd Round
    Duke
    Michigan State
    Iowa
    UCLA
    UNC
    SouthCarolina
    Penn State
    FSU
    USC
    Virginia
    Ohio State
    Wake Forest
    Arkansas
    Stanford
    Notre Dame
    Mississippi State

    3rd Round
    Duke
    UCLA
    UNC
    FSU
    USC
    Wake Forest
    Arkansas
    Mississippi State

    Quarterfinals
    Duke
    FSU
    USC
    Arkansas

    Semifinals
    FSU
    Arkansas

    Championship
    FSU
     
  9. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Massey Ratings (No adjustment for home field advantage)

    First Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    TennesseeU
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    BYU
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    KansasU
    WisconsinU
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    CaliforniaU
    Rutgers
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    WestVirginiaU
    UtahState
    MississippiState

    Second Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasU
    IowaU
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississippiState

    Third Round Winners

    Duke
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    MississippiState

    Quarterfinals Winners

    Duke
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    ArkansasU

    Semifinals Winners

    Duke
    ArkansasU

    Championship Winner

    Duke
     
  10. dyzio03

    dyzio03 New Member

    Liverpool FC
    United States
    Nov 17, 2018
    #35 dyzio03, Nov 15, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2024
    1st Round:

    Duke
    Texas Tech
    Michigan State
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SantaClara
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SoutherCalifornia
    KansasU
    WisconsinU
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    FIU
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForst
    ArkansasU
    CaliforniaU
    Rutgers
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    WestVirginiaU
    WashingtonU
    MississipiState

    2nd Round:

    Duke
    TexasU
    Georgetown
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    WakeForest
    California
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississipiState

    3rd Round:

    Duke
    UCLA
    NorthCarolina
    FloridaState
    SoutherCalifornia
    WakeForest
    California
    NotreDame

    Quarters:
    Duke
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    NotreDame

    Semis:
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia

    Final:
    FloridaState
     
  11. TimB4Last

    TimB4Last Member+

    May 5, 2006
    Dystopia
    First Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    BYU
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    KansasU
    WisconsinU
    Princeton
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest

    ArkansasU
    CaliforniaU
    ConnecticutU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    KentuckyU
    Washington
    MississippiState

    Second Round Winners

    Duke
    MichiganState
    Georgetown
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    WisconsinU
    OhioState
    WakeForest

    ArkansasU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississippiState

    Third Round Winners = Quarterfinalists

    Duke
    UCLA

    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState

    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest

    Stanford
    NotreDame

    Quarterfinal Winners

    Duke
    NorthCarolinaU

    WakeForest
    Stanford

    Semifinal Winners

    Duke
    WakeForest

    Champion
    WakeForest
     
  12. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    KP Index Predictions
    (No adjustments for home field advantage)

    First Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasTech
    MichiganState
    TexasU
    IowaU
    Georgetown
    VirginiaTech
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    BYU
    MinnesotaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    PennState
    TCU
    Vanderbilt
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    StLouis
    WisconsinU
    VirginiaU
    OhioState
    Auburn
    GeorgiaU
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Pepperdine
    ConnecticutU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    KentuckyU
    UtahState
    MississippiState

    Second Round Winners

    Duke
    TexasU
    IowaU
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    SouthCarolinaU
    TCU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    VirginiaU
    Auburn
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    Stanford
    NotreDame
    MississippiState

    Third Round Winners

    Duke
    UCLA
    NorthCarolinaU
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    WakeForest
    ArkansasU
    MississippiState

    Quafterfinals Winners

    Duke
    FloridaState
    SouthernCalifornia
    MississippiState

    Semifinals Winners

    Duke
    MississippiState

    Championship Winner

    Duke
     
  13. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For a very brief moment, most likely, my Pre-Season Predicted RPI ratings are in sole possession of first place, with a 100% correct rate for all 11 games completed.:eek:
     
  14. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tonight, we had 25 games. No one got all of them right, but From the Spot and Pin Action got all but one. In the table, the green highlighting is for the individual humans. The others are the Committee or the rating systems. The table is sorted by rank and then alphabetically.

    upload_2024-11-15_21-52-46.png
     
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Standings after First Round day 2 matches. One more game tomorrow, for which all competitors are almost certain to get a point.

    upload_2024-11-16_18-26-36.png
     
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And, here are the contest standings after completion of the First Round. Pin Action leads the pack and continues in an historic star competitor role. As a point of reference, last year four competitors shared the First Round lead with 30 correct predictions: nwnittany49 was the only individual human leader, accompanied by the Committee, the KP Index, and the NCAA RPI. This year, most interestingly to me, the Committee missed on 5 games.

    upload_2024-11-17_16-35-4.png
     
    blissett repped this.
  17. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the standings after completion of Round 2. The "Score" columns relate to contestant scores based on the contest scoring system. The "Correct" columns relate to the number of individual game predictions correct without consideration of the scoring system. The table is ordered by Score and then by Contestant in alphabetical order.

    upload_2024-11-22_21-59-2.png
     
    TimB4Last and blissett repped this.
  18. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the standings after completion of Round 3. It's interesting to see the differences between the Standing column, using the scoring system, and the Total Correct Rank column, looking simply at the number of correct predictions.

    upload_2024-11-24_21-8-8.png
     
    TimB4Last and blissett repped this.
  19. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    @cpthomas, is the fact that you're last-placed part of some convoluted plot? :cautious:
     
  20. Sledhead

    Sledhead Member

    Atalanta
    United States
    Jul 14, 2019
    Didn't get my predictions in on time, but man does Duke look good.
     
  21. nwnittany49

    nwnittany49 Member

    Portland Timbers
    United States
    May 9, 2021
    Clark County, Washington, United States of America
    I am about to take a big dive! My last few round picks are mostly out of the running. Should have trusted Duke…
     
  22. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    I like that cp is adding the simple number of wins. That certainly is a good way of looking at the contest.

    However, the weighted method serves a good purpose. That being that being able to see into the future for each round. It's one thing to glance at the whole 64 and see who is at the top and bottom. It's another to guess who will be playing whom once each weekend. Consequently, increasing the points for each of the 4 first rounds serves to reward the correct calculation of who will be playing whom. To put it differently, this means that even if most every one thinks that they know which top teams will end up in the final 4 they also have to have the majority of correct wins in the second, third and fourth rounds. This is why the points reward is aimed to accumulate points for those who see the best performers for the first four rounds. The points go flat for the last two rounds because at that point the the last 4 teams standing would be nothing more than a contest that rewards only picking out the eventual likely winners and ignoring the complex middle choices winners who had a good run.
     
  23. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think when I posted my personal predictions that I said I would make a lot of participants feel better -- meaning, by ending up far in last place. It looks like I was right. And, I have confirmed my not trusting my own personal evaluations and trusting the statistics instead.:)
     
    blissett repped this.
  24. NilamCA

    NilamCA Member

    Jul 4, 2007
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Was not able to make predictions this year and probably would have been in close company with cpthomas but I say Wake Forest all the way:D:D:D
     

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