It’s true it’s all projection but... Johnny is playing first team soccer for one of the best club in the Western Hemisphere (at a position of need) Balogun is training with Arsenal’s first team and is a highly touted youngster. Reynolds has been in the rotation for Roma first team minutes. Konrad is about to transfer somewhere (Marseille?) to get first team minutes. We forgot about Ledezma. But players bounce back from ACL tears all the time (sometimes they don’t though). And Gomez is hyped with the same sort of attention that Reyna had when he was playing with NYCFC before he transferred to Dortmund. Could all fall on their face? Of course. But signs look promising. Let’s pray they do their part.
For some of these, when you say "breakout" I think you need something more like Football Manager's In-Game Editor. "Let's see, Johnny's first touch is an 8 out of 20, let''s just make that an 18..." I've written elsewhere that someone new might emerge with the full team by Qatar, but we're a lot closer to our final team than what you have here - and some of these guys just haven't shown anything compelling. edit: (just read your follow up post): let's see what happens. I always appreciate the depth of your lists.
As far as “locks” I’ll use a 0/10 scale to determine how much they are a lock: Reference 9-10 / Lock 7-8 / Near Lock 5-6 / Safe Bet 3-4 / Work to do 1-2 / Last ticket GK 1. Steffen 10/10 2. Horvath 7/10 3. Turner 6/10 RB 1. Yedlin 3/10 2. Cannon 3/10 LB 1. Dest 10/10 2. A. Robinson 6/10 CB 1. Brooks 9/10 2. Richards 6/10 3. McKenzie 1/10 4. Miazga 1/10 MF 1. McKennie 10/10 2. Adams 10/10 3. Musah 7/10 4. Acosta 1/10 AM 1. Reyna 10/10 2. Lletget 1/10 RW 1. Weah 9/10 2. Aaronson 8/10 LW 1. Pulisic 10/10 FW 1. Pefok 3/10 2. Dike 3/10 3. Sargent 3/10 ...note these rating are not based on quality but separation between the “next guy” on the list.
He’s 21 and has played at a higher level for longer than any other forward. Again, does he have to continue to get better?? Yes!! but please list the strikers in a top 5 league as young or younger than him who have as many goals/appearances. Once he goes to Frankfurt or gladbach, he will continue to prove he’s a solid Bundesliga level forward. . a solid bundesliga level forward is pretty damn close to a lock. Pefok most certainly isn’t as good as him.
What did he do at that level? What has he done at the National Team level? He's 21. Great. This isn't a youth forum, though.
11 goals in 4100 minutes of league play. We'll have to agree to disagree. This reminds me of the Altidore nonsense. Fortunately, this time, he we have a big enough pool of strikers to expect a truly good performer to emerge.
Sargent is not a lock - right now it’s a 3-4 man race for 2 spots between Sargent, Pefok, Dike, and Hoppe. Others could emerge too. Sargent is at the point in his career that he’s got to start producing and not just riding on his reputation as a man with a lot of potential. Weah is more of a lock because when you get past Pulisic, Reyna, and Aaronson there is a significant drop in talent. Guys like Konrad, Clark, and Cowell could emerge, but they’ve got to prove it. Morris and Ledezma need to successfully return from injury. And Arriola is still a factor, but he’s not a guy who’s going to will us into the knockout rounds in the WC.
Weah has the additional advantage of versatility. He can play striker, 2nd forward, wing, and wingback. He also has a good per 90 g+a at league level. He's a lock.
For your selection to have a chance, GB would have to change his formation. I haven't seen him play with an ACM. He prefers the dedicated 6 instead.
I generally agree with you on Sargent but disagree on Weah. I understand that your ratings are based on distance between the next guy rather than overall quality, but I think it’s important to consider both. Sargent’s situation is not as stable as it seems because Dike and Hoppe could both break out during the upcoming season and pass him on the depth chart. It’s not what I expect, so I would give Sargent better odds than the others, but I do think it’s pretty close. with Weah, I think you’re kind of ignoring how berhalter is playing things right now. All indications are that Reyna is his first choice right winger, but you have him at AM. Weah seems to be the backup there, and he doesn’t have a lot of competition there, but I imagine that GB views his spot as one that could stand to be upgraded. All it takes is for one guy to break out there, and he could be in big trouble. And guys like Clark, De La Fuente, and Mighten are not really right wingers, but they could produce there. Even Sargent could get pushed over there. the guys who I view as locks are guys who are playing so well at club level and for the national team that they’re comfortably in the first 11, and it’s very difficult to imagine two guys passing them and bumping them off the roster. That’s really just CP, WM, Adams, Reyna, Dest, and maybe Brooks as far as field players go. Then you have guys like Aaronson, Richards, and Robinson who are playing pretty well and don’t face a ton of competition. Then you have guys like Lletget and Cannon who berhalter seems comfortable with, but who are also facing some stiff competition from emerging players.
i kinda disagree here- ive never thought of sarge as a guy with a ton of potential. to the contrary he was sort of a prodigy- scored at will in youth teams, moved up to a full level beyond his age...scored at will. he was ready-made, so to speak. obviously all players can grow and improve and yes he is still young, but hes never been a guy (imo) who had this huge jump in him. and i dont think its especially arguable he doesnt have any outstanding physical attributes other than an engine. it i were to have laid out a projection for him 4 years ago it would have been the talent of a 28 year old mcbride (on the cusp of going full mcbride) in an 18 year old body. so he gets those 8-10 goals for a couple of years, and when his mind catches up to his talent he kicks on to be a 14 goal scorer. people lose their damn mind over jozy so ill skip very relevant comparisons there and say joe max moore is looking like the best case scenario.
this is what i dont get about those who still feel sarge is the clear first/best option- you say dike and hoppe need to break out (more than they did this season, im assuming) to pass sargent- ok, thats fine in theory. but what does sargent have to do? or to put it another way what has he done to be anointed in the first place? hoppe just had a more productive season in less minutes than sarge (in his third season). theres this incumbency that is based on nothing. was his first season as a part time starter with bremen enough to displace the entrenched starter zardes? apparently so (and there just arent many people who want to bother making an argument for a very low level constant like gyasi). but sucking less than someone else isnt actually being good yourself. unproductive bund minutes cant really be a position-locking accomplishment can it? are we THAT in awe of euro-magic? sargent never WON the starting spot, he just sort of got it. and again, at the time a couple of years ago...not a crime against humanity. but we have other options now who are producing. who are making legitimate cases to be played based on more than simply being on the pitch. i just cant my head around the reasoning of anyone having to catch up to/overtake sargent. and even if that did hold water, well, hoppe just did it. oh, but 5 goals in three weeks (like you cant just as easily say it took less than a month to surpass sarges season), blah blah blah...
Calm down, man. No need for a long rant. I want to see Hoppe, Dike, and perhaps Pefok get some starts with the A team in qualifying. Hoppe and Dike have only broken out at club level in the past 4-5 months or so, and Pefok only committed recently as well. before that, we had guys like Zardes and Altidore. Sargent has performed decently given the circumstances at his club. And while he hasn’t been great for the national team, he hasn’t been awful, and the team has been successful. Up until the past few months, it made complete sense that Sargent was first choice. other guys deserve a shot to show what they can do with our best players, but Sargent doesn’t deserve to be completely dropped, either.
Hoppe having 3-4 good games with Schalke means he’s clearly better than Sargent and Berhalter and everyone else who doesn’t realize this is a moron.
It should be an open competition. Hoppe and Dike deserve the chance to show what they can do, but anyone acting like they’ve proven more than Sargent at club level, or will definitely be better for the national team is full of shit.
Zardes right now is on the 23. He has similar non-scoring attributes ( work-rate, speed, quickness, defensive press, counter-press) for a CF in a high tempo 4-3-3 as Sargent and Jesse scores a lot of goals in MLS!