Not sure for March but thinking we’ll see Paxton Aaronson this summer with Gio, McKennie, and Weah unavailable cause of the Club World Cup.
thats great. pax wasnt really relevant to my question- i just think its unlikely brendan goes from a guy poch has gushed about and started every match he was fit. that was further complicated by listing pax as "vibes"- which doesnt really make sense, while thats exactly the reasoning for brendo. pax making it is completely feasible, it just seemed a little clunky involving the two of them. and of course im the asshole for asking for clarification.
Poch has managed a grand total of 4 A-team matches. Players rise and fall with the arrival of new coaches. It's nothing new. And the tournament is 2026, not tomorrow.
I haven't taken a shot yet, so here's mine. Turner, Schulte, Steffen Dest, Scally, Jedi, Richards, McKenzie, Downs, Miles Adams, McKennie, Musah, Reyna, Cardoso, Tessman, Tillman Pulisic, Pepi, Weah, Balogun, Wright, Brendan Alternates: Sargent, Zendejas, Luna
I like that speculation. If Miles is chosen that means he's back to top form, which I like. I'd only substitute Sarge for Downs.
Updating my projection since my last one in November. Changes in italics. GK: - Matt Turner: a bland pick as a starter right now because no one else is laying claim to take his spot away, but his lack of club playing time is very concerning. - Zack Steffen: still the highest ceiling GK in our pool in my opinion other than Kochen and Slonina, and he looked good in January Camp. He was frozen out by Berhalter but looks to have a fresh chance with Poch. - Diego Kochen: Schulte and Horvath don't inspire me, so we might as well use our 3rd spot on a bright young prospect. Poch seems like he might be more amenable to doing that than past USMNT coaches, who tend to go for the salty vet and locker room vibes guy as our 3rd GK pick (Meola, Hahnemann, Rimando, Sean Johnson) DEF: - Sergiño Dest: a lock starter if healthy - Chris Richards: our best CB IMO. - Cameron Carter-Vickers: I'm not thrilled with him as a starter, but don't feel confident picking anyone else. - Antonee Robinson: 2nd best player in our entire player pool right now after Pulisic. - Joe Scally: almost a lock as a backup RB who can also play LB in a pinch. - Mark McKenzie: picking him narrowly over Auston Trusty. Miles Robinson could also wedge his way back in if he returns to top club form. - Noahkai Banks: projecting him in based on his rapid club trajectory. Really promising looking prospect. MID: - Tyler Adams: I still think he's the single most important player in our entire pool (yes, you read that right). - Weston McKennie: has made himself a lock starter if on-form and healthy. - Gio Reyna: hopefully projecting health and good form, in which case he should start in a 4-2-3-1. - Yunus Musah: gets pushed out of the starting line-up in a projected 4-2-3-1, but he's massive depth and ought to start at least 1 group stage game. - Malik Tillman: a logical backup attacking midfielder for Gio Reyna in a 4-2-3-1 and someone you could easily throw into the starting line-up for a group stage match for squad rotation. - Johnny Cardoso: I almost want to cut him based on his miserable 2024 USMNT appearances, but he's clearly the best backup to Tyler Adams based on club pedigree and therefore edges out James Sands, Tanner Tessman and Lennard Maloney. WING: - Christian Pulisic: wonderful to see his run of excellent club form. - Tim Weah: no one has knocked on the door to push him out of the starting line-up, and I really like his game and the verticality, ball skills and finishing ability he adds to our team. - Brenden Aaronson: likely the best backup option on the wing if he maintains his club form and his playing style suits Poch's. I also don't really see any other wingers knocking on the door and Kevin Paredes has been out injured. - Paxten Aaronson: a bit of a tweener and not a true winger, but his club form has been impressive so I'm adding him in here as a projected pick. He provides tactical flexibility and could easily slide in to a midfield spot in a 4-3-3. ST: - Ricardo Pepi: a toss-up between him and Balogun for the starting nod, but he sure has looked on fire with PSV this season and is a bit younger. - Folarin Balogun: if he can recapture his health and club form, I would not be at all surprised to see him leading the line as our starter. - Josh Sargent: if healthy, I really want him on the plane as a 3rd striker. I think it's essential to carry a 3rd striker for tournament play (you need it when chasing goals + for injury cover), and his positioning, finishing and hold-up play for his club have been outstanding. Note that I'm only carrying 7 true defenders in this squad to make room for Josh Sargent as a 3rd striker. I think we can get away with 7, since several of our defenders can play multiple positions, and McKennie and Weah can slide back to fullback in an emergency if needed. Bob Bradley only brought 7 true defenders on our 2010 World Cup squad and Jonathan Spector and Clarence Goodson still didn't get a minute of playing time. ALTERNATES: - Haji Wright: a tough drop especially given his versatility to play striker and on the wing. - Auston Trusty: tempting to ride the club pairing familiarity with Carter-Vickers. - Kevin Paredes: if he gets healthy and progresses, I'd likely put him back in my 23-man roster on the wing. - Caleb Wiley: I still have him as our highest ceiling LB behind Antonee Robinson, and he provides versatility to play on the wing. - Miles Robinson: If he were to recapture top form, I'd put him in my top-4 CBs. - James Sands: nice to see him make the move to the Bundesliga. I think he's been quite steady in most of his USMNT appearances dating back to 2021.
OK, folks. Here's my post-Gold Cup 23 Tickets for USA World Cup roster prediction. Also cross-linking to my post in the Player Pool thread outlining my current take on the USMNT Player Pool by position. Changes in italics from my last prediction in February. GK: - Zack Steffen: moves up to #1 on my depth chart as of now. - Matt Turner: hopefully he'll get playing time at Lyon. He desperately needs it. - Matt Freese: he moves up to #3 on my list as a penalty shootout specialist, similar to what The Netherlands did in the 2014 World Cup with their #3 keeper. DEF: - Sergiño Dest: one of the most important players on the team. - Chris Richards: our best CB, he had a solid Gold Cup. - Cameron Carter-Vickers: He's been average to poor in a USMNT shirt, but I don't see anyone better based on club performance. - Antonee Robinson: still our 2nd best player in our entire player pool right now after Pulisic. - Joe Scally: still our best #2 RB. - Auston Trusty: truly a "pick-em" between him, Mark McKenzie and Miles Robinson. I'm still anticipating Tim Ream will drop off in the next year and that age will finally catch up with him. I'm narrowly picking Trusty here due to club chemistry with Carter-Vickers. - Noahkai Banks: still projecting him to emerge more this year and crack the top-4 at CB. MID: - Tyler Adams: Had a quiet Gold Cup, but still the most important player in our pool if healthy and in form. - Weston McKennie: Starting #8. - Malik Tillman: Has finally emerged as my starting #10 in a 4-2-3-1. - Yunus Musah: First off the bench in the midfield. - Johnny Cardoso: He's been atrocious with the USMNT so I really want to pick Tanner Tessman or James Sands ahead of him, but his club form and trajectory has been excellent, so hoping he finally turns around his international form and shows us what he can do. - Gio Reyna: he's barely hanging on at this point. - Paxten Aaronson: he was awesome for his club in 2024-25. Projecting him to continue improving and earn a spot. WING: - Christian Pulisic: wonderful to see his run of excellent club form. - Tim Weah: no one has knocked on the door to push him out of the starting line-up, and I really like his game and the verticality, ball skills and finishing ability he adds to our team. - Diego Luna: his emergence this year pushes him onto the squad as a backup winger or backup #10. ST: - Ricardo Pepi: my pick to start if he's healthy and recaptures club form. - Folarin Balogun: excellent change of pace option at striker who will likely earn at least 1 group stage start if healthy and in form. - Josh Sargent: I know he's been in the doghouse with fans and maybe the coaches, but I still believe in him and want to see him get more chances. His club form has been so good and I want a pure finisher on this squad who can also hold the ball up. I'm still hoping Poch takes 7 true defenders to make room for more talent in the midfield and up top assuming a 23-man roster. ALTERNATES: - Haji Wright: may make the roster ahead of Sargent due to his versatility. But I like Sargent's hold-up play + finishing ability as a #3 striker. - Brenden Aaronson: dropped from my February roster in favor of Diego Luna. - Mark McKenzie: A pick-em between him, Trusty and Miles Robinson. - Caleb Wiley: If Poch chooses to carry 8 defenders including 4 true fullbacks, here's your guy. - Kevin Paredes: if he gets healthy and progresses, he could push for a backup winger spot. Also provides LB depth in a pinch. - Miles Robinson: a pick-em between him, Trusty and McKenzie. - Tanner Tessman: he's knocking on the door at DM if Cardoso fails to impress internationally, or if Adams gets hurt. James Sands is my next man up after.
The Team Sheet: 1 Malik Tillman 2 Chris Richards 3 Tyler Adams 4 Sergino Dest 5 Christian Pulisic 6 Antonee Robinson 7 Tim Weah 8 Diego Luna 9 Tim Ream 10 Folarin Balogun 11 Ricardo Pepi 12 Weston McKennie 13 Mark McKenzie 14 Max Arfsten 15 Matt Freese 16 Matt Turner 17 Sebastian Berhalter 18 Alex Freeman 19 Joe Scally 20 Pat Agyemang 21 Luca de la Torre 22 Johnny Cardoso 23 Yunus Musah 24 Zack Steffen 25 Milan Iloski 26 Kevin Paredes
Tell me about your Milan Iloski pick. I don't think he's been on many of our radars for the USMNT. And no Gio Reyna is a bold pick, though I totally get it given his club situation the past 3 years. Your projection feels more like a "what would Poch do" vs. what you'd like to see, but it feels heavily indexed on the Gold Cup starters from this summer. I don't know that I see guys like Freeman getting in and I really can't say I want de la Torre or Agyemang on the squad. It will be really interesting to see how Agyemang does in the same league as his USMNT competition like Josh Sargent (assuming he doesn't transfer out) and Haji Wright, both of whom have been prolific scorers in the Championship.
Milan Iloski was scoring so much for expansion club San Diego FC, that the club who owned his contract in Denmark (FC Nordsjaellend) terminated his loan early to bring him back in. The guy didn’t start in SD, but still scored 10 goals (1 assist) in 471 minutes. A goal every 47 minutes is a flat ridiculous pace. The USMNT needs goals. This guy scores goals with his eyes closed. He’s small, but is a fierce competitor who visibly becomes animated by opportunities, which he takes advantage of. Guys like that get noticed and they get chances to do it at higher levels. Yes, my list is based on what is likely rather than what I would choose myself. Who on earth cares about what I would pick? We aren’t playing Football Manager here. This isn’t that old vibrating table soccer game and I’m not 8 years old (though I would much rather be…those were great times). As for Gio, his success in Europe was 4 years ago and he really hasn’t played much since. As teams tried to move him into more influential roles his production became worse and worse. This tracks for both the national team and his club team. I saw someone that was excited about his possible 6 million euro transfer post a video of him dribbling Mexican players as if it was his career accomplishment, a moment that proves his greatness. He conveniently edited out the end of the clip. Why? Because dribbling those guys resulted in nothing. It’s like Dennis Schroeder breaking some ankles and putting up an airball. What Gio really is is an intuitive offensive player around the box who has the kind of striker arrogance to try to score. He has not proven to have the mind or industry to be the hub of an offense. He has not shown commitment to defense. Players with those limitations struggle to get minutes in Europe now. Two major things have to happen for him to get called in: 1) he has to get regular minutes (he has to play every week), 2) he has to show growth. These are the two things he has not been able to do for four years. Is it possible? Yes. Maybe it was a contractual issue that kept him on the bench (minutes incentives, etc). Who knows. But what is likely is that all of those coaches viewed him as incapable of carrying out the needs of the team. Pochettino seemed to have a similar sentiment as the Dortmund and Forest coaches about him. There is an untold story here, and it likely doesn’t have much to do with a serious injury. There is a maxim in pro sports that the guys who do not keep up with proper training accumulate more serious injuries. It’s not that they don’t maintain fitness because of injury, it’s that injuries come with lack of training. From Qatar to today, all indicators show that Gio is lazy (and probably immature). His famous falling out with the USMNT players came because he wasn’t training to the expected level. Pochettino raised the same concerns when Gio was called in last. Subsequently, he wasn’t called in during the Club World Cup, when he obviously was not in Dortmunds plans. Pochettino is known as a coach who values aggression and effort. There is no way that he brings in a guy who has had effort issues in the past and who has not grown out of it. There is no way that Gio goes to a club like Parma and earns a trusted role when he doesn’t train like his teammates, if he even ends up there. So, until I see that something has changed in Gio, I don’t see him making the squad. It’s unfortunate, because I know that he at least puts in more effort with the USMNT than he does with his club, but it’s not good enough. His recent appearances were not even close to as influential as Diego Luna’s were in the Gold Cup, and certainly not Malik Tillman who has left him far in the rear view. McKennie is versatile, Musah’s skills and abilities are valued by Pochettino, and there are other trustworthy players for advanced roles (Weah, etc). Gio threw a temper tantrum that almost wrecked the team in the last World Cup when he didn’t get minutes because he didn’t start. Several players voted to kick him off the team and put his butt on a plane home. What has Gio shown that would cause a coach to go “You know what, that’s in the past and the player has grown.” There is very little evidence to support that. Its not looking good for Gio right now.
I mean, not really. SDFC and FC Nordsjaellend are essentially owned by the same people. I don't think SDFC was willing or able given MLS salary structure, to give Iloski, who grew up in San Diego, enough money to stay. The loan was simply up. It's a weird situation, because the explanation is that they couldn't make the money work, but I doubt that's between the teams -- I think it is far more likely that Milan still wants to try to move up in Europe and SDFC couldn't or didn't even want to try and make him stay, money wise. Iloski was only being paid $156k by SDFC. I'm not sure, despite his insane run, that they were quite ready to commit a ton of money to him. Their third highest paid player on the roster is also a striker and their two DPs are also both attackers -- it may simply have been a money allocation issue. Lozano and Dreyer are clearly better than Iloski -- Milan might end up better than Ingvarsten but they are paying him (and de la Torre) TAM money. It's only to say that this isn't his home club desperately clawing him back because he's so good. It's actually an odd situation where I can't tell that he's going back because Iloski wants to, or because he'd prefer to if Right to Dream wasn't going to give him a pay bump and they didn't want to or whatever.
So what you’re saying, is that Iloski became more valuable than SDFC was able to afford. Iloski was considered a homegrown player by SDFC, correct?
No, I don't think he is. He was there on loan from the sister club and the loan is up. I don't think "he's more valuable" than SDFC can afford -- the ownership groups are the same and Iloski is going back to Denmark making the same money, I suspect. Maybe he gets paid a lot more there and FC Nordsjaelland is picking up the difference on the loan, because again, it's the same ownership group, basically? It's not like the people in Denmark were like "oh, he's so good, we need him back" and set a really high transfer fee on it. Invargsten and Tsverkov (their excellent DM) were both signed by Nordsjaelland in order for them to basically go to SDFC in the inaugural season. There are separate people running them, but it's still a very tight organization. I don't really know why he's going back. There's a number of reasons why ... but it's not likely the size of a transfer fee is the issue.
Can you point to where his loan ended? MLS published a “mutually agreed upon termination”, which is obviously much different than a loan expiry. MLS also listed him as a San Diego FC homegrown. Given the timing, the obvious inference is that the club wants him to train with the big boys.
He's not a homegrown by any definition, but perhaps MLS bent their rules for the expansion team. That said, MLS roster info on the internet is notoriously bad. I've done a bit more digging, and the scuttlebutt that went down is this: after his run of strong play, he pushed for a bigger contract. SDFC liked him, but apparently they were very far apart on money. Since SDFC didn't see a contract likely in the future, they are sending him back to prioritize players who will be here next year. Which I'm not sure is what Iloski wanted, but at 26, I guess he had to shoot his shot. I have no idea what he asked for. I don't know that he will get what he asked for elsewhere. The rumor is that he was making $325k in Denmark -- I don't know if he took a pay cut to come home or if Nords was making up the difference from the $156k on the books for SDFC. SDFC absolutely has the money to pay him well above that, but I suspect that he asked for something they either didn't think he was worth, or couldn't pay not from a $ amount but more from a "we've already allocated $10M in salary to the frontline, we're not doing more." I think it's just important to note that while SDFC and Nordsjaelland are going to have different priorities and different allocations of payroll, the money is coming from the same place and the scouting is almost certainly a shared piece of information.
Iloski is 25, and with a performance like that he has earned an opportunity. This is a big whiff for SDFC, because the guy was pouring buckets of goals and yes, they did claim him as a homegrown. If we’re making assumptions, it’s more reasonable to assume that the Danes were glad to have him return after showing that his quality was that high. He was providing the thing that is of the highest value in all of soccer, which is consistent scoring.
He poured in goals in a very small sample size. I liked what I saw, but I do think it is relevant than SDFC did not want to drop the money on him. We saw Matthew Hoppe drop in 5 goals in three games in a better league and everyone went nuts there, and he's not even MLS level. I have no real opinion on Iloski longer term -- but it's wholly inaccurate to act like Nordsjaelland was so impressed that they pulled him back and demanded a super high price from ... basically themselves. It sounds instead like Iloski and his agent made a play for more money and Right to Dream decided that he wasn't worth what they asked in San Diego. I don't think that means all that much either way, but SDFC absolutely has the cap space and cash flow to pay him substantially more, so take that FWIW. Like any organization, they can be wrong.
I think this is exactly what I would have other than…would swap Haji for Sargent. And potentially Reyna for Luna at present state given only one of them plays soccer.
First question I guess is will it be a 23 or 26 man roster? Regardless, I believe there are probably 16 players that I feel pretty confident will be in the team come 2026. Most of them will probably not come as any surprise. Pepi, Balo, Adams, Tillman, Mckennie, Musah, Pulisic, Weah, Luna, Dest, Ream, Richardson, Jedi, Steffan, Turner, Freese are all names I expect to see in the 23 or 26 man roster. GK I think Steffan, Freese and Turner in that order. Poch, imo, likes Steffan and I believe he has the inside track...it is his to lose. Freese has taken over the #2 spot and Turner has fallen to #3 but if Turner finally has a good season at France, he will shoot up to 2nd and possibly compete for the number one. RB: Dest is obvious but what is especially important is that he is easily the best right back and 2nd best left back. Poch may only take three outside backs. back up to Dest is between Scally and Freeman. Scally has the edge right now, but see me in March, this one is close and much of it depends on what qualities Poch wants in a right back. CB: After Richards and Ream, it is pretty tight. My picks are McKenzie and Trusty. I don't think Poch rates CCV very highly and Miles didn't get the kind of minutes in the GC that would indicate he holds him in high regard. Of course McKenzie didn't really rack of the minutes either so this one is wide open. LB: Like the right, Jedi is a shoo-in. the question is who, if anyone backs up Jedi. I only see a back up for Jedi if they take 4 outside backs. If they take 3 it would be 3 on the right and might include a plan for Dest to be the lb backup and the second rb (Scally or Freeman) starts. If they take 4, it would seem most likely to be Arfsten backing up Jedi but Lund is also a possibility...especially if he has a good season. Others could be Paredes or Wiley. I haven't seen either recently but from what I remember of the little I have seen, both Paredes and Wiley, seem like the types that Poch would like. For now I choose Scally to back up Dest but Freeman could pry his way in. Midfield: I'm going to lump all the mids and wings together. After Adams, Tillman, McKennie, Musah, Pulisic, Weah and Luna I think there are probably another 3 spots for four people. Tessman, Berhalter, Aaronson and Johnny. Johnny, in some ways should have the easiest path to the wc. If he starts playing with the NT at the same level he has already shown with his club, he is a shoo-in. Aaronson's energy and ability to cover ground and press could be crucial as a late game sub, Tessman's passing range is something I believe Poch values, Berhalter's set pieces, steadiness and fight are qualities in his favor. My hunch is that Poch would go with Berhalter and Aaronson right now. With a 26 man roster, all Tessman goes too. Forward: Pepi and Balo are no brainer by default. The rest is really TBD. Right now, Sargent is probably the most complete player vying for the 3rd spot but.....he can't seem to score for the NT. Hopefully he goes to B1, has a good season and translates that form to the USNT. Right now, he is my pick. I haven't seen enough of Downs but the tiny glimpse I did see at GC intrigued me. Right now, he is the longest of long shots but who knows...maybe. I know there are others in Europe that some have high hopes for (Campbell, Banks, Paredes, Wiley and others). If I haven't seen them, they aren't included. If it is a 26 man roster, there are a few possible changes I see: I would expect him to bring 4 outside backs, one extra midfielder and possibly one extra forward depending upon form. that could be 2 left and 2 right or 1 left and 3 right. If he goes 2 and 2, I think it would be Jedi and Arfsten on the left Dest and Scally on the right. As above, Freeman is definitely in the picture at right back. I think another small possibility would be Dest, Scally and Freeman on the right. If the loss in quality of Dest playing on left vs right is seen to be outweighed by the increase in value of playing Scally or Freeman over Arfsten, combined with the slight advantage of more flexibility by having a choice of playing Freeman or Scally situationally. That's probably overthinking...just a thought. A roster of 26, probably adds one more outside back (Arfsten or Lund), one more forward (Wright), and the whoever got the short stick and didn't make the 23 between Berhalter, Aaronson, Tessman and Johnny. Oh...I almost forgot about Reyna! If he gets on track he's in but that is a very big if in my opinion. I really don't know who he bumps...I'll sleep on it.
I'd pare that a bit further if I was going down to complete locks (I know you didn't use the word; I'm just riffing). I don't think any of the goalkeepers are locks, but I would say Freese, having beaten out Turner, is highly likely given the lack of any solidified roles and his play. It's just really hard to see him either getting a big money move that puts him on the bench, or really declining rapidly at NYCFC -- the latter is possible but less likely to me than Turner being benched all year, etc. The chances that Steffen plays his way off the team are high. I think Musah could conceptually be on the bubble. Pochettino clearly loves the athleticism and skill, but while most seem to think Poch loves him, I saw a guy who did quite a bit to not play Musah in central midfield. I think he's in as of today, but a re-emergence of Reyna or growth from any number of central mids really pushes Musah, IMO. I'm a big Pepi fan but he hasn't been into camp with Poch and I struggle to say lock in the 100% sense of the word. Given the striker situation, I think he's very unlikely to get bumped, but he's not a Dest-style lock. Everyone else does seem a lock to me barring injury or knuckleheadery. I suppose Ream would be the next one in line, but I think even with decline, the veteranosity wins out.
Nobody is a 100% lock. That being said, being almost a lock in my list is like avoiding being eaten by a shark...They don't have to be the best, they just have to be better than the guy nearest to them. For Pepi (or Balo) to miss out, he would have to be injured, or be overtaken by two players (assuming 3 forwards). Right now those two, imo, are Sargent and Wright and I don't see both surpassing Pepi...I wouldn't expect it but I could possibly see Sargent but I don't see Wright passing him up. I agree that I was probably a bit too generous for the goalies, but not by much. Unlike the other positions, I think that would make a better bet as a group than by individual player. That being said, Steffan has at times been inconsistent and has had injuries, Turner hasn't played since... and Freese is still a relative unknown internationally. All that being said, barring possible injury(ies) I would say that at least 2 of the 3 will be there, if for no other reason than....who else is there? Musah is close imo, but I think he has the combination of being "good enough" and having Poch's favor. Subjective I know, but that's what this list is. Reyna is an enigma. We all have seen glimpses of what he can do internationally and at the club level. But...what has he done for the past four years? Is it physical? Mentality? Attitude? Something else? A combination of things? So, what does Reyna need to do? he needs to play, show injuries haven't significantly eroded his quality and show durability over the season. Who does he replace? Maybe Musah but does he replace him if Poch has questions on whether or not Reyna will be healthy? If Tessman is on the roster, I can see him being bumped too but the same health questions arise regardless. I still think Reyna finds his way onto the roster if he is able to take care of his side of the equation but he hasn't done it in 4 years; nothing makes me confident that it will change now. I think Ream's spot is relatively safe. If his form falls off the map, he can lose his spot but even with a slight decline, I think he makes it. He has been the starter and captain. I believe Poch values his play and leadership to the point that even if he loses his place as a starter, he keeps him on the roster. I don't think Poch highly rates any of his nearest competitors. If one of the longshots knocks one out I think Poch cuts McKenzie or Trusty (or whoever).