What: DC United vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Where: BC Place When: Wednesday, October 12th Why: Still in the playoff hunt... Our last away game of the season. BC Place looks like an intimidating place. Vancouver is still very much a spoiler team. I have no idea how to feel about this. Little bit worried since DeRo has been traveling all over the hemisphere.
I'm not going to lie, I'm a little scared. This is an absolute must-win. I know that phrase has been thrown around a lot lately, but this is the real deal. Lose, and you're as good as done. I know that we wouldn't be eliminated statistically, but we would have to expect 3 straight wins against playoff hungry teams. We haven't even won 2 in a row in 2 years. Things don't look too good, chaps.
If there's one thing that fantasy MLS has taught me, it's that DC United always loses when I think they'll win, and vice versa. Because I think they will lose, I suspect they will win. This logic, when used in advance, almost always means a draw. 1-1. Not. Good. Enough.
From Knave, on "The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]" thread: Knave, I wish I could rep you for every single post in that thread, but alas Big Soccer is a cruel mistress.
You're right, again Knave put together a great analysis. I'll offer the Reader's Digest version: pissing away points in the last two games against Philly and Columbus make the Vancouver game a must-win. Anything other than 3 points on Wednesday night make the route to the playoffs a long shot.
First, I think maybe you should look for a mistress that's, you know, a little less ugly. Second, better to rep the other contributors on that thread. The legwork that some of them are doing working out scenarios and drilling into the numbers is amazing -- or crazy. It's sometimes hard to distinguish those things. That analysis I did last night isn't at all comprehensive. It doesn't game everything out -- which makes it all a bit suspect. But it wasn't my intention to do a rigorous analysis. I just wanted to see if United would still have a reasonable path to the playoffs (i.e. something that did not require the team to win out) even if they failed to beat Vancouver. There is provided United at least manages a draw. Even with a draw it'd be a terribly tough road. We've had a couple of OK unbeaten streaks (WDDWD back in May, DDWD in June, WDWD in August). So asking the team to go DWDW in these last four games isn't totally nuts. But it's not totally sane either. It's not the end of the season if DCU manages only a draw against VAN. It would not, however, be a good result. Numbers aside, I see it like this: United, for all it's faults and failings this year, has been relatively strong on the road. It's time to put that road strength to use against the weakest team in the league. If DCU can't muster the strength to beat a totally beatable Vancouver, then it's unlikely they can muster the strength to get the necessary results in the three-game home-stand that ends the season.
The truth is that we have the schedule we want. We end with a weak road opponent and games at home. The fact that we likely need to go unbeaten with at least two wins in that schedule to just barely make it into the expanded playoffs, well, that's a real shame. The fans deserve better. I will do everything I can to support the team -- hell, I'm flying back a day early from Brazil so I can arrive the morning of the 15th and make the home game -- but I'm realistic about where we are. This game vs Vancouver IS the season. We have two possible outcomes... Option A involves the Cinderella team overcoming adversity, winning in Vancouver, finishing strong, making the playoffs and DeRo getting MVP. Then there's option B. I've had a lot of time to live Option B over the last few years. I know Option B. Option B sucks.
I think you're overestimating the quality of our competition. It's not like the teams we're fighting are going to run the table either. But psychologically, I agree.
I hate to have to point this out, but I think the "but our competition isn't that good either" argument is moot. Our competition doesn't have to be that good to edge DCU out of a playoff spot. And none would have to run the table. If 46 points will do it (and I think it will), then our competition doesn't have to put up very impressive numbers to meet that bar: Code: [B][U] PTS GR <46 PPG-46[/U] FCD 46 3 0 0.0 SKC 45 2 1 0.5 COL 45 2 1 0.5 CMB 44 2 2 1.0 NYR 43 2 3 1.5 HOU 43 2 3 1.5 ------------------- POR 40 3 6 2.0 DCU 38 4 8 2.0 GR = Games Remaining <46 = 46 - PTS PPG-46 = <46/GR[/B] The teams ahead of us (excluding POR) need at most 1 win. Sure, both NYR and HOU could have their problems in their next games, but I think both will be the favorites in their final games. CMB is playing away, but against very weak sides. The other teams are already at 45. Even 45 will be tough for us. Point is I'm not counting on a whole lot of help from our competition.
Let's not park the ********ing buss when we are up 2-0 in the 60th and pull out our ********ing midfield - let's just kill 'em... I mean, all offense like the Dutch... we're gonna concede, so we might as well gun-sling dammint. We got the Magnificent 7.
Knave, you're killing me. Each one of your analyses drives home the point that a DCU appearance in the playoffs is a really long shot given the team's season long "form."
You do realize he's currently in Toronto for Canada's Tuesday night WC qualifier? Raise your hand if you think a player is going to fly across a continent to play back-to-back games and have a meaningful contribution in that second game.
I figured the playoffs were a long shot before the season even started. Personally, I'm happy that we're better than we were last year. Hopefully, we'll be a genuine contender for a run deep into the playoffs in the 2012 season.
This is right. Honestly, the fact that we're this close to being playoff competitive is sort of amazing. Credit to DeRo -- because without him, we're not even in the conversation.
Is that really true? Not to minimize the effect that he's had, he's been MVP quality, but it seems like United were slightly below playoff calibre before he arrived and are slightly below playoff calibre now.
Yeah, you could go through the numbers and see if the assertion really checks out. I'm thinking it would, but I haven't gone through the numbers. That said, as I see it, one fewer win and we're not in the playoff discussion. Did DeRo help us win one additional game? No doubt.
IMO, he's been as big an influence on the 2011 team as Gomez had on the 2004 team. And if Chris Pontius hadn't broken his leg, I have no doubt we'd be making that run into the playoffs this year, but mostly because having Pontius on the field gave De Rosario more space to be creative.
[LINEUP-4-3-3]Wolff, Davies, Quaranta, DaLuz, Simms, Najar, Burch, McDonald, Kitchen, McTavish, Willis[/LINEUP-4-3-3] subs: King(for a midfielder, NOT FORWARD!!), Woolard, Barklage, Korb, Brettschneider/Ngwenya(whoever's in better form from practice) I'm putting this suggestion out there to stimulate some further discussion, and a probable given that DeRosario, Hamid, White and Jackovic won't be available due to either lingering injury or national duty. That, and a condition- that forces Quaranta to stay on the right above Andy, instead of centrally or on the left, always crossing those exquisite balls leaving the next guy to show the 1 vs. 1 skills. He needs to be given blinders and a forward directive. Confound it man, you had those skills once upon a time, you're a professional footballer, now it's past time you worked on regaining and improving those skills and help this team! Goal-wise, he's certainly a bit starved, time to play ravenously hungry and go to goal. We'll undoubtedly miss DeRo's skills in the center, but I'd hope if this idea were offered sometime last week, the front 5 could come up with enough collective creativity to make it work. Let Davies' speed wreak havoc in the middle by letting Wolff and Quaranta pressure consistently with high possession as well as high defensive pressure on their back line's possession. And when the opposition figures how to counter that, then let the wings go to work on getting to the end line and crossing like there's no tomorrow. If Simms can stay in touch with the back line and cover, even Burch can get into the act teaming with DaLuz to get forward. And- Cover those far posts for crying out loud!!! Bottom line, we need whatever line-up to show better defensive shape and communication, and less back passing and/or concession to center up top to net these points hanging so low from the branches of opportunity. Back in the day, we'd relish the autumn weather because we knew it meant a trophy was around the corner. The beer was colder, tasted better, and the cheers and chants resounded louder. Today, you can see it- Doubt about the team's playoff chances is spread throughout these boards. C'mon, DC... set your hearts on fire, grab this road match by the throat, and come home to a throng waiting and willing to believe again. Vamos United! Vamanos!
It's the point in the 2011 season, a point that occurs in every season, in which for DC United to have any real chance of doing what needs to be done, I must officially, unrepentantly, fully give up on this team in an unqualified manner. They aren't good enough. They is no chance they will make the playoffs. It's done.
Ok, I'll bite- is there a line-up in your crystal ball that nets us a win? Emptying the offensive sided bucket might leave us defensively vulnerable, so have at it if there's a better way.