Super early discussion, but we can use this thread in the future when teams start to officially qualify for the world cup. As it stands right now (December 2022), these would be theoretically be the draw pots for the 2026 World Cup. I'm 99% sure that the 3 hosts are going to be in pot 1 with the expansion to 48 teams, given that both Korea and Japan were in pot in 2002 with 8-teams pots. We can also come back here in the future and compare how much these pots changed between now and the actual world cup 12-teams pots Pot 1: USA (H) Canada (H) Mexico (H) Brazil Argentina France Belgium England Netherlands Croatia Italy Portugal Pot 2: Spain Morocco Switzerland Germany Uruguay Colombia Denmark Senegal Japan Peru Poland Sweden Pot 3: Iran South Korea Ukraine Australia Wales Tunisia Serbia Chile Costa Rica Cameroon Algeria Nigeria Pot 4: Egypt Ecuador Mali Ivory Coast Saudi Arabia Ghana Qatar Panama Jamaica Iraq United Arab Emirates New Zealand I used the latest FIFA Ranking, but obviously things are probably going to change a lot between now and the next world cup. I took the current highest ranked teams of each confederation and assumed that CONMEBOL and CAF won the two playoff-spots Random thoughts Unless FIFA changes their ranking system, Brazil, France and Argentina are waay too many points ahead of almost everyone else that if they manage to qualify (they will) they are practically assured being a top seed. Belgium also has a relatively comfortable points advantage over teams under them, so expect them to still being a top seed if they qualify. Morocco has a big chance to slip into pot 1 if they don't shit the bed in AFCONS Spain can also easily slip into pot 1 assuming they do well in the Euros and one of England / Netherlands / Croatia / Italy / Portugal don't.
It will indeed be interesting to chart the changes in the pot status of these teams and note which ones - if any - fail to qualify. Presumably this is based on the assumption that the format will feature 12 groups of 4 teams.
Right away we see one of the big advantages for the 12x4 format over the 16x3 format. The 4 teams above would be grouped with pot 1 teams making for some tasty matchups in the group stage. With 16 groups, these 4 teams would be in pot 1 and it wouldn't get any more appealing than Uruguay v France until we move on to knockout stage. Granted, even if we get Germany v Brazil in the group stage it won't mean a heck of a lot with 32 teams advancing to the next stage, but that's a consequence of having 48 teams which is already settled.
You're probably right, I run a mock draw algorithm with the same constraints as always (at least 1 euro team per group, only one team per confederation except for UEFA which can have 2) and the most attractive match I got was "Italy vs Spain" Here's the mock draw: Group A: USA, Morocco, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates Group B: Belgium, Germany, Cameroon, Panama Group C: France, Poland, Nigeria, Qatar Group D: Brazil, Senegal, Wales, Saudi Arabia Group E: Italy, Spain, South Korea, Mali Group F: Canada, Peru, Serbia, Ghana Group G: Mexico, Sweden, Iran, Egypt Group H: Netherlands, Switzerland, Tunisia, Ecuador Group I: England, Uruguay, Australia, Jamaica Group J: Croatia, Japan, Chile, Ivory Coast Group K: Argentina, Denmark, Algeria, New Zealand Group L: Portugal, Colombia, Costa Rica, Iraq On the bright side, there will be more ROW vs ROW matches than ever.
I did a somewhat different mock draw a few days ago using 2022 qualifying results, which I feel might be a better reflection of what the World Cup will look like because there are always upsets in qualifying. I hadn't gotten around to posting it when you posted this thread. I did versions for both 16 groups of 3 and 12 groups of 4. First, some notes on how I got my qualifiers: UEFA: 3 additional teams are the three playoff final losers. CONMEBOL: Next teams in the standings. CONCACAF: Next teams in the standings. CAF: The CAF format would have to change significantly, but in order to minimize the amount of speculation needed, I assigned DR Congo (the lowest point total of the group winners) to the intercontinental playoff spot. AFC: The second round of qualifying doubled as 2023 Asian Cup qualifying, so Qatar actually played that round and won their group (over Oman who got in as one of the best second place teams). Had they not been hosts, Qatar would have been in the final group stage in place of Lebanon. I assume they would have performed at least as well as Oman, so Iraq gets bumped down to play China for AFC's playoff spot. OFC: Final loser goes to intercontinental playoff. I assumed teams with highest current Elo ratings won all playoffs, so Chile and Iraq emerged from the intercontinental playoff. Pots are based on the most recent (October) official FIFA rankings. For the actual draw, I used current procedures. I also ensured that one of the hosts would play the opening match in Group A, and put a maximum of one host in each quarter of the draw in order to keep hosts from meeting early in the knockout stage. For 16 groups of 3, the 16 European teams fit precisely into the 16 groups, so I allowed a maximum of 1 team per confederation in each group including UEFA. Here's how it came out for 16 groups of 3: Group A: Canada, Wales, New Zealand Group B: Brazil, Serbia, Algeria Group C: Switzerland, Costa Rica, United Arab Emirates Group D: Spain, Chile, Cameroon Group E: Mexico, Japan, North Macedonia Group F: England, South Korea, Ghana Group G: Netherlands, Senegal, Jamaica Group H: Germany, Nigeria, Iraq Group I: United States, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia Group J: Argentina, Sweden, Mali Group K: Belgium, Morocco, Australia Group L: France, Iran, Panama Group M: Denmark, Colombia, Egypt Group N: Uruguay, Poland, Qatar Group O: Croatia, Peru, Oman Group P: Portugal, Tunisia, Ecuador I was pleasantly surprised by the matchups here: based on what actually happened in 2022 (since we're thinking about the 2026 World Cup being played in 2022) I could see Groups K and M being genuine dogfights. But that's mostly because of my low expectations for this format. Canada's group, in particular, looks awful for the neutral viewer. There are no really big matchups between traditional powers in the group stage, and with two advancing from each group, some of the groups get much less interesting. For 12 groups of 4, it was: Group A: Mexico, Uruguay, Egypt, North Macedonia Group B: Belgium, Colombia, Algeria, Jamaica Group C: Netherlands, Serbia, Cameroon, United Arab Emirates Group D: France, Japan, Sweden, Mali Group E: England, Croatia, Australia, Panama Group F: Spain, Senegal, Chile, Qatar Group G: United States, Morocco, Poland, New Zealand Group H: Portugal, Peru, Nigeria, Iraq Group I: Denmark, Switzerland, Tunisia, Oman Group J: Canada, Iran, Ukraine, Ecuador Group K: Brazil, Wales, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia Group L: Argentina, Germany, South Korea, Ghana With the soccer world getting deeper, the groups here seem to me to be mostly comparable in strength to the 1998 groups when the World Cup first expanded to 32. Even with expansion to 48 teams, most likely a higher percentage of World Cup players are in the big 5 European leagues now than in 1998. There's a World Cup semifinal rematch between England and Croatia, and there's a tasty Argentina-Germany match. Group L is super interesting beyond that match, with Germany seeking revenge against South Korea who eliminated them in 2018, and Ghana being much better than their ranking. It's probably the closest thing to a Group of Death here. On the other hand, Brazil would very likely have little trouble disposing of any of their group opponents -- though this is obviously in retrospect after the 2022 World Cup with Wales relying too much on Bale and Ramsey who weren't fully fit and ran out of gas after the first game.
Of course, there are always some upsets. From this side of the world, I'm predicting Paraguay to qualify over one of Chile / Peru and Jamaica not to qualify from CONCACAF due to their federation internal problems with their players. Qatar will probably be back with the increased AFC spots, there's still uncertainty over AFC qualifiers and UEFA it will depend on the draw, but I'm predicting Hungary to qualify (and maybe Italy ) However, I did it with the current rankings at the moment because we are at the beginning of the 4 years cycle, so we can compare at the end how accurate they were or if anyone exceeded expectations.
Ah. Slightly different objectives then. I was mostly trying to gauge the strength of the field. Obviously the surprise qualifiers are going to be different in 2026 than 2022, and we don't know who they are, but I was thinking the number of upsets and the strength of the surprise qualifiers would be similar, so using 2022 qualifying results would result in a tournament field of similar strength.
I expect Germany to drop into pot 3 or even 4 because they won't play competitive matches next year. If they can recover, it is much dependent on how the play in their own Euros, the next UNL and the WCQ for United 2026
Pot 3 maybe but Pot 4 seems like a stretch, (especially now that there will be at least 12 teams per pot) unless they absolutely get anhilated at Euros and NL
It can happen. Brazil fell up to place 20th in June 2013 before winning the confederations cup and rising to the 7th place. This was due the fact that they were not playing qualifiers (plus the did horrible at the 2011 Copa America) However Germany still has Nations League and the 2026 WC Qualifiers as comprtitive games. So as long as they don't do bad in their Euros, they should be fine (ranking wise). I don't see them reaching Pot 1 unless they win the euros, so if they manage to return to the previous merciless Germany that they were before, they are going to be the worst possible team to get from Pot 2, but right now that seems unlikely
That's not going to drop them. Keep in mind that FIFA switched to a modified Elo system in 2018, so teams are no longer rewarded for playing more games, and no longer penalized for not playing competitive games.
Current pots update after AFCON and Asian Cup. From CAF, I took the highest ranked team in each qualifying group and the highest ranked team after that (South Africa). 12-teams pots Pot 1: USA (H) Canada (H) Mexico (H) Argentina France England Belgium Brazil Netherlands Portugal Spain (Up from Pot 2) Italy Pot 2: Croatia (Down from Pot 1) Uruguay Morocco Colombia Germany Senegal Japan Switzerland Iran (Up from Pot 3) Denmark South Korea (Up from Pot 3) Australia (Up from Pot 3) Pot 3: Ukraine Austria (new) Sweden (Down from Pot 2) Hungary (new) Nigeria Wales Ecuador (Up from Pot 4) Peru (Down from Pot 2) Egypt (Up from Pot 4) Qatar (Up from Pot 4) Ivory Coast (Up from Pot 4) Tunisia Pot 4: Chile (Down from Pot 3) Algeria (Down from Pot 3) Panama Mali Cameroon (Down from Pot 3) Saudi Arabia Costa Rica (Down from Pot 3) Jamaica Iraq South Africa (new) Uzbekistan (new) New Zealand Teams that were phased out since I started tracking: Poland, Serbia, Ghana, UAE Please note that these are the current highest ranked teams from each confederation according to the FIFA ranking, not my personal predictions (I am predicting Peru and other from this list to not qualify). Also, we now know that the 2 Inter-confederation play-offs and the 4 UEFA teams from the playoff will not be known until after the draw is made, so I don't know in which pot they will be located.
If it's anything like how FIFA likes to do it. They will give the pot for the UEFA playoff teams to the "seeded" team in each mini tournament. The playoff teams will almost definitely be pot 4 teams.
If the playoff draw is known at the time of the WC draw then I would suggest putting each group winner in the pot the highest ranked team in that part of the draw would have been in.
Last time around, the highest ranked teams from the play off matchups were Wales and Peru that on paper both should have been on pot 3. However, FIFA placed them anyway on pot 4. The winner of Costa Rica vs New Zealand would have been in pot 4 anyway. I think they will do the same this time around unless one of the UEFA favorites fails to qualify directly, I am talking about something like England on the playoffs.
True and maybe. But one big difference in 2022: the UEFA playoffs were wrapped up before the WC final draw. Well, all except the playoff that involved Ukraine because of delays caused by the war. I will also just point out that it makes even less sense with the expanded WC to do it this way than it did in 2022. Pot 4 in 2026 is equivalent to a pot 5 or pot 6 in 2022. Imagine how silly to put a team like Portugal or Italy in that pot?
I will be interested to see if UEFA makes good on its promise to use Nations League rankings for the Pots for WC Qualifying. No idea where I read that, but if it's true you can get some really stupid groups. If that's true these would be the pots based off of expected results with bold teams placed in the highest pot they can possible be as it is. Pot 1: Croatia, Portugal, Poland, Italy, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Hungary, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Switzerland Pot 2: Scotland, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Czech Rep, Ukraine, England, Finland, Austria, Norway, Wales, Iceland Pot 3: Albania, Georgia, Ireland, Greece, Slovenia, Kazakhstan, Montenegro, Turkey, Sweden, Romania, Luxembourg, Romania Pot 4: Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Estonia, Kosovo, Cyprus, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Northern Ireland, Belarus, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia, Latvia Pot 5: Gibraltar, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Malta, Andorra You could get a Hungary, Iceland, Luxembourg and Faroe Islands group or on the flipside you can get an Italy, England, Turkey, Sweden group.
we already had that discussion here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/posts/41748612/ I made a mock allocation and draw based on the outcome of UNL 2022-2023. The teams in blue are those which have to take part in playoffs. Groups of 4 must (at least) have 3 of those teams and their schedule start in September 2025. Groups of 5 must have 1 of those teams and their schedule start in March 2025 with the matches of the blue team starting in June, when its group competitors already have 2 matches played each. If they really take that approach, it seems that top seeds in two will have an easier path if they manage to grab one of those 6 groups of 4 teams. I strongly expect England to win its group and it can well be, that also one of the bigger teams - e.g. Italy - becomes last in its UNL groups. In this case, England and Italy will both be in pot 2 and determined to feature a group of 5 teams and the top seed in that group will have some work to do. Funnily it also appears that the path might be easier for teams of UNL League C if they avoid winning their groups and become 2nd instead of, as then they would be also a blue team, avoiding potentially England or Germany + a top seed.
The only extra fiddle will be that the semi finalists of the UNL will need to be in 4 team groups as they need two windows clear. As the draw will be done prior to the quarter finals it will have to done as winner QF1, loser QF1 etc.
You used the FIFA World Rankings. I use now my post AFCON/Asian Cup updated Top 150 Ranking. It hasn't been published yet by me because I have still to watch some CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinals but it doesn't change anything on the broader picture If all my highest ranked nations were all to qualify (taking into account also the qualifying groups in CAF) these would be the pots at the minute Pot 1 • USA N/R = updated rating not available yet = not relevant for the draw due to being host • Mexico N/R = updated rating not available yet = not relevant for the draw due to being host • Canada N/R = updated rating not available yet = not relevant for the draw due to being host • France 89.5 • Argentina 88 • England 88 • Portugal 87 • Spain 87 • Uruguay 84.5 • Italy 84.5 • Brazil 84 • Netherlands 84 Pot 2 • Belgium 84 • Croatia 83.5 • Colombia 83 • Senegal 82.5 • Austria 82 • Japan 81.5 • Denmark 81.5 • Hungary 81.5 • Morocco 81 • Germany 81 • Ecuador 81 • Ukraine 80.5 Pot 3 • Türkiye 80.5 • Scotland 80 • South Korea 79.5 • Switzerland 79.5 • Iran 79.5 • Australia 79 • Côte d'Ivoire 78.5 • Nigeria 78 • Egypt 77.5 • Mali 77.5 • Venezuela 77.5 • Tunisia 77 Pot 4 • Saudi Arabia 77 • Panama N/R = Rating not finalised yet - estimated rating 77 • Chile 77 • Algeria 76.5 • DR Congo 76.5 • Iraq 75.5 • Qatar 75.5 • Uzbekistan 75.5 • Cameroon 75 • Jamaica N/R = Rating not finalised yet - estimated rating 73 • New Zealand 71 • Costa Rica N/R = Rating not finalised yet - estimated rating 70 Note: Just as you I assumed CONMEBOL and CAF would have a playoff winner sending to the World Cup. By my ranking currently projected to be these teams are Chile (77) and DR Congo (76.5) So according to my current ranking 3 teams are on track to debut at the 2026 World Cup. These being Mali from CAF, Uzbekistan from AFC and Venezuela from CONMEBOL. I personally predicted before a ball was kicked in WCQ Burkina Faso, Venezeula, Uzbekistan and Bahrain to be the debutants in 2026. Uzbekistan and Venezuela are sitting pretty. However Burkina Faso and Bahrain are both ranking wise outside of qualifying position. They have so to speak their work cut out. They need to improve their rating in my ranking in the next year or so. The FIFA Rankings and my ranking agree at the minute on 44 teams. FIFA has Sweden (76.5), Wales (77), Peru (74) and South Africa (76) making it My ranking has Türkiye (80.5) , Scotland (80), Venezuela (77.5) and DR Congo (76.5) making it In brackets you see the current rating in my ranking
Typo. Switzerland are after their repeated hiccups lately only 78.5 rated actually. That puts them still just about through to the World Cup and they would still be in pot 2.