Post 2003 Caliber vs. Current Stars

Right now, your comparison group is apparently 1997 (Jedi) - 2003 (Pepi?), which is a really long span of 7 years. It's also a bit cherry-picked, in the sense that the time period that doesn't have non-arbitrary reasons to exist (like Olympic cohorts, etc.)

So, even if we accept that, we're looking at birth years of 2004-2010, which includes 15 year olds. This includes high end players like Cavan Sullivan and Mathis Albert. I don't even really know who is in the 2010s.

It also includes someone like Neil Pierre, who basically just turned the age that Chris Richards appeared on radars and was snapped up by Bayern.

It doesn't include someone like Kochen at keeper.

So I don't think you are wrong:

• I think we all know there was a COVID or otherwise driven lull in 2004-2006, though that team performed pretty well at the U20 World Cup.
• And I do think there's been a shift away from some of the higher end athleticism.
• And I also think we likely won't see a foreign driven development bonanza like we had with Jedi-Dest-Balogun-Tillman-(Musah) for a long while because it won't be as easy to get into the team.

But I do think you are overestimating when the current group broke out and not allowing for younger players to have their own breakouts. It's not usual for guys to be that good as teenagers.

 

Yeah, I'm not really disagreeing; I'm more riffing off it.

I would say it's interesting to look at the 23-25 year old segment and the 20-22 year old segment in a bit more detail.

There was a point not too long ago that the 2001 class was considered a flop, and the 2002 group full of high end performers. But with Balogun's commitment, Tessman, Morris, Arfsten, Berhalter, Cardoso, etc., there's a group coming into its own.

Yes, aside from Balogun, the upside seems somewhat limited there, but what was considered a loss is suddenly improved.

The 2002 class -- those 23 year olds -- were the stars with little depth ... we've seen Reyna come and go, Tillman come and Musah go, and Scally settle into being a depth piece on the edge of the roster. Busio has faded a bit.

2003-2005 is weaker, for sure. I wouldn't entirely sit on the upside of the class -- Pepi, in particular has always been a high potential guy in my mind. And Freeman. And the biggest upside of the 2004 class outside of Freeman was in slow-developing keepers.

But I suspect that guys like Pepi, Luna, Freeman will be joined by a number of guys like the 2001 class developed, especially in the 2005 class that looked really good if not with a ton of stars at the U20 World Cup. But even 2003 -- I would not write off McGlynn or Paxten yet at all in terms of real contribution.

We may end up with a bit of a superstar gap ... but I'm not really sure that even 3-5 years is devastating? Some of the older crew may age well, guys like Tillman, Reyna, etc. may continue to really progress, guys like Pepi and Freeman may pop and guys like Sullivan may step in early.

I'm somewhat more worried about not getting solid CBs and GKs.

 

Another way to think about it, if we're dividing up into 3 year periods, you only need 1 starter from basically every year to hang on if we can get rid of the Lost Generation.

With 2002 so strong, and Pepi, Freeman, etc. we may not be super far off.

Then again ... 2006 and 2007 haven't been real great, either. So we could be looking at a good four years of slow development. Although 2006 has Kochen and Banks.

 

Compared to those lost generations, 2006 and 2007 may look similar at a top end right now, but they are showing early signs of having significantly more depth (this is MLS minutes, specifically).




While 2001 isn't talked about as that important, it still has a chance to set the record for most MLS minutes of all time. That is a clearer representation than more top pros, to me, of a rising tide.

The same is theoretically possible for years like 2004 and 2005, if you look at how their 2025 compared to the previous birth year's same age. We may not have as many Pulisic's, but with that number of pros you're going to end up with guys like Berhalter, Tessmann, Luna, Arfsten, Freeman, etc. It's not going to get us to the WC Finals, but it's a great floor.

 

Did you watch this year's U-20 World Cup? This 2005 group has zero expected high end stars but it was very solid in every position except striker. A really high baseline that can compete not just a set of try hards with mediocre perspectives. That type of group can generate unexpected high end players.

 

2004-2007 (maybe even 2008) doesn’t have as many players who are top flight talents. There may be no Pulisic or McKennie. At the same time, I think we’ve got some less hyped types emerging in that group. None of the GK prospects from 1997-2003 received the same hype as Slonina, Brady, and Kochen, so hopefully we fill that GK1 for the senior team hole with this group. You have a CB in Banks who is more highly regarded at that age than any from 1997-2003, so hopefully you find CB1 in that group (and I think generally the CB’s from 2004-2008 show more promise than the group ahead, 1997-2003, even beyond Banks).

I think it’s two things: probably not quite as high end of talents from 2004-2008 overall and then the top talents are more at positions that don’t naturally receive the headlines.

I don’t see this as anything more than a natural cyclical thing.

 

Thanks! It's always a bit tough to tell if the weak years are weak because of sales/defections or just week. But 1994, 1996 and even 1999 (which is basically just Tyler, period) look pretty bad.

I think the depth is a better overall long term indicator of development, most likely, but once we have it, we'll just be focused on the stars as the remaining differentiator.

 

There's a bunch of other guys, but generally, I'm not really investing in any. I suspect we'll see someone pop at age 26 or something that we never suspected.

 

I would not count on having Christian Pulisic as a "norm" anytime soon. He's one of the best players in Serie A right now and while I don't really know where he ranks at winger, there are very few nations in the World that run out XI guys who are at that level.

The other thing that I am a bit worried about is that what a lot of our high potential guys from this era do have is plus athleticism and we do not seem to be attracting that right now at the same rate. Or they aren't staying with soccer. Perhaps there's too much emphasis on early skill; perhaps these were just outliers. It's mostly pro's kids, sons of servicemen, the odd occasional outlier.

There really seems to be no systematic effort to attract stronger athletes and develop them.

McKennie is the one that's kind of at play here. He's not unskilled, but he's at Juventus because he translates his athleticism into some pretty effective play, not because of training. He was left off of youth national teams but ended up better.

If I were an MLS team, I'd be recruiting kids across sports and focusing on this kind of upside. But I think a lot grab the kids who can do what they want already rather than want to train up some fundamentals. Of course, they used to be accused of the opposite, so it's a balance.

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The other things to watch: our team has a lot of high end, foreign developed talent. We'll see if that pipeline continues.

And of course, a lot of kids of immigrants. We know there's likely to be a lull there in the future. How impactful and long that will be remains to be seen.

 

There's more than exceptions. Teenagers that break through are rare. High end stars are better and often break through earlier, but there are lots of players out there playing at a high level who broke through much later.

It's also worth noting that using guys like Christian and Gio as baselines are tough because winger is where players break through the youngest by far.

Christian and Weston for sure.

Weah got less than a thousand minutes before the age of 20, and most of that was at Celtic, in an MLS level league, and he only played about 400 minutes there. I don't even think he'd have gotten his cup of coffee with PSG without his last name.

Like DeAndre Yedlin, Weah largely stays at the highest levels because of his athleticism and ability to defend (and maybe because of his name). But he has 22g and 16a in 11,000 minutes. I really don't think Weah hangs at that level with that production if he's just an American and definitely not if he has, say, Zendejas' or Luna's athleticism. But both those guys might be more goal productive for the US.

 

Agree -- and it's not only "not the big headlines" for those positions, but it's later developers.

Christian is a 1998, but he's also a winger. Noakhai Banks is a 2006 but he's a CB. They are 8 years apart but probably closer to 12-14 years apart if we're talking when they are supposed to peak as players.

 

There's a lot of time to go. Its early.

We can think about Justin Haak in this regard.

He was on our radar as a young player, albeit with minimal caps, and just had a fantastic MLS season.

Played in 43 games across all competitions for an NYCFC team that ended up in the Eastern Conference final.

If there was a January camp, Justin Haak may have been in it at CB.
Source: NYCFC’s Justin Haak receiving rampant interest from England, Germany, MLS clubs – amNewYork

There are always going to be shooting stars. But there are just as many guys who go thru the slow grind, with ups and downs, to get to a place where they're USMNTers. Particularly in positions like GK, CB, center forward.

THe USMNT's leading goalscorer in 2025?

Patrick Agyemang.

He was playing for Eastern Connecticut State University. He was All-Division III third team. THIRD TEAM.

Meanwhile our starter for his U20 cycle was Sebastian Soto, who has fallen off the face of the planet.

So you kind of have to let these things play out.

Max Arfsten played in 16 of the USMNT 18 games in 2025. How many youth caps?

[I mean, I know we're stating the obvious. This is true in a lot of sports. Baseball. Yes, there are the Bryce Harper types. #1 overall pick that you could see becoming a star from a mile away. But there are so many all-stars that didn't take that path. Hall of Famers even. Jeff Kent was just elected to the Hall of Fame. Drafted in the 20th round.]

 

Justin Che coming back to MLS is a thing.

Red Bull New York Completes Transfer of Defender Justin Che from Brøndby IF | New York Red Bulls

He's a 2003 that might have something. He was a key starter on the 2021 World Cups quad. Started every game other than the rotated game against Fiji. Started that quarterfinal against Uruguay. I had sort of written him in as a contributor for the Olympic cycle and then being on a USMNT path. He was actually called up to the USMNT in 2021 after breaking out for FCD and moving on loan to Bayern. Maybe I was under the delusion that he was the "next on the Chris Richards path."

It just didn't happen for him in Europe. I haven't seen him in forever. I'm going to be curious to see what he looks like.

When you think about it, he's very similar in age to Alex Freeman. Half a year older.

Maybe he's a 2003 that can get back on track with consistent playing time. I'd love for Jonathan Gomez to somehow get back on track to an upward trajectory.

We look at this Dallas cohort around the 2003s, and not as many made it as we hoped. I guess that's just natural. We talked about them endlessly on these boards. Pepi is the one that's made it. Everyone else is hanging on.

The previous generation is doing great still. We'll have 4 or 5 FCD academy products on the World Cup team. Pepi, McKennie, Tessmann, and Richards are seemingly in good shape with Zendejas on the bubble. Then there are bunch of others still doing well professionally without being USMNT possibilities.

Maybe I was just naive. I thought the 2003-2005 group would follow in the footsteps of the 1999-2002 group. It didn't happen other than Pepi. [And by the way, we can add Michel Collodi to that 1999-2002 group. He looks like an MLS first team keeper.] If we really write out that 99-02 class of Dallas academy products when their careers are done, its going to look super impressive. Maybe it was simply unsustainable.

I think the same thing about Philly, by the way. Its hard to keep the conveyor belt moving. Its hard to sustain in terms of that ELITE level. You know? [As an aside, I'm a little surprised that I haven't seen either Curtin or LeBlanc interviewing for any of these MLS head coach openings. Why wouldn't a team like SKC be hiring Jim Curtin?]

 

That 2003 group did not have much luck with their early breakthrough group. If you cast your mind back five to six years ago that group had a lot of kids that had early pro starts and moves to Europe. Pepi, of course, but also Cade Cowell, Caden Clark, Slonina, J. Gomez, Che and Kevin Paredes. Pepi is fine and Slonina is a GK so he's still on track but the rest have not built up from their early success. Incredibly, the 2025 cap leaders for this group have been Luna and McGlynn with the caveat that Pepi was injured most of the year.

 

(Slonina is an '04, FYI, though in that '20 group.)

Paredes has mostly been injury driven as well.

But it's worth noting -- and I wouldn't say incredibly -- that Paredes and Luna were not particularly high on the old prospect list. Luna kind of got lost when he went USL but Paredes didn't really show up highly until he was starting for DC United. Much more of a Brenden Aaronson situation.

I think Paxten still has a shot to make an impact as well.

I'm going to pat myself on the back for not really being impressed with Jogo, Che or Clark. Jalen Neal is probably the guy I'm most surprised has just disappeared. I wouldn't be super shocked to see him pop up again.

Not to pick on a poster here at all -- this is not "look how bad this was" but rather this is was prospects are like -- this is a 2003 ranking from April on 2020. So when most of the kids were close to turning 17 if not already 17.

And like half of these guys don't even have an MLS career.

1. Moses Nyeman- Attacking Mid/Center Mid (DC United)
2. Jonathan Gomez- Left Back (Louisville City FC)
3. Ricardo Pepi- Striker (FC Dallas)
4. Danny Leyva- Defensive Mid/Center Mid (Seattle Sounders)
5. Elton Chifamba- Center Mid/Defensive Mid (Columbus Crew)
6. Jonathan Perez- Attacking Mid/Winger (LA Galaxy)
7. Mauricio Cuevas- Right Back (LA Galaxy)
8. Caden Clark- Center Mid/Attacking Mid (New York Red Bulls)
9. Dante Sealy- Winger (FC Dallas)
10. Casey Walls- Center Back (San Jose Earthquakes)
11. Chris Garcia- Winger (Real Salt Lake)
12. Patrick Weah- Striker (Minnesota United)
13. Justin Che- Center Back (FC Dallas)
14. Fabrizio Bernal- Winger (San Antonio FC)
15. Tarun Karumanchi- Defensive Mid/Center Mid (San Jose Earthquakes)
16. Kevin Paredes- Winger/Attacking Mid (DC United)
17. Sam Sarver- Striker/Winger (Columbus Crew)
18. Matthew Roou- Striker (Shattuck-Saint Mary’s)
19. Dante Huckaby- Center Back (Philadelphia Union)
20. Patrick Bohui- Winger/Striker (Philadelphia Union)
21. Noah Hall- Right Back (Columbus Crew)
22. Anthony Sorenson- Left Back (Philadelphia Union)
23. Cade Cowell- Winger (San Jose Earthquakes)
24. Paxten Aaronson- Attacking Mid (Philadelphia Union)
25. Tyler Freeman- Winger/Attacking Mid (Sporting Kansas City)

​

Missing with senior caps/calls: Diego Luna, Jack McGlynn, Jalen Neal, Brian Gutierrez

 

And for fun, different person, same website, two years later -- August of '22. So most kids had hit 19 by now. We had pro input on a lot of these guys now and it was simply a lot better.

1. Pepi
2. Bryan Okoh
3. Paredes
4. Jonathon Gomez
5. McGlynn
6. Paxten Aaronson
7. Gutierrez
8. Clark
9. Alex Alvarado
10. Justin Che
11. Diego Luna
12. Dante Sealy
13. Jonathon Perez - didn't note in last post, but play for El Salvador, I think?
14. Neal
15. Cowell
16. Kayden Pierre
17. Nyeman
18. Quimi Ordonez
19. Danny Leyva
20. Daniel Edelman

Much better, though Luna is still too low. But once we start to get real pro input -- and it shouldn't be a surprise that a decent % of the guys who are overrated here weren't playing at their pro club at the time. Sometimes those pro scouts and coaches are right.

What does this mean? Not all that much. But it probably means that we are much more right about the (disappointing) class of '05 than we are about '08 or even '07 in terms of who is going to pop.

 

Someone’s mad they took an L about what’s going to happen with Neil Pierre.

I think part of the general issue with the 2003’s is that a lot of these kids are Mexican-Americans, and the reality is that outside of Pepi most Mexican-Americans have busted over time. @butters59 tends to bring it up. It’s a controversial topic, but it’s kind of true.

It’s been talked about here over the years why.
I think LigaMX trying to buy up these kids because they count as domestics has been terrible for their careers overall. I think another issue is that a lot of Mexican-American players have went with inexperienced agents. I don’t think it’s necessarily a coincidence that most of the big agencies sign kids from white “country club” type families. Might affordability be a factor in all of this? I suspect so. It’s not completely that, but I think there are elements of that which exist. Poor representation for a number of them (Gomez, Luna, Alvarado, Cuevas, etc.).

I don’t think they’re doomed to fail. I try to evaluate them the same as players of any other race or ethnicity, but you can’t escape that the numbers are not good in their favor and I think there are some real reasons that explain why.

Yes, it doesn’t help either when a Moses Nyeman or Elton Chifamba don’t grow after age 14 or a Tyler Freeman has off field issues that doom his career.

There are some with every age group, but I think the 2003’s have had a disproportionate amount of busts due to the lack of ambition (Aaronson, Luna, Gutierrez, Cowell), the poor track record overall of the demo a large number of these players are part of, and probably also just some random bad luck like Neal and Paredes can’t stay healthy.

 

Okay, just for shits and giggles, here's a 2005 birth year ranking from 2020 ... again, just really to show how unlikely these things are accurate rather than criticizing at this stage:

1. Nati Clarke: right back/center back (Sporting Kansas City)
2. Gage Akalu: winger (Sporting Kansas City)
3. Reed Baker-Whiting: defensive midfield (Seattle Sounders)
4. Brooklyn Raines: center midfield (Barca Academy AZ)
5. Italo Jenkins: striker (Atlanta United)
6. Serge Ngoma: striker/winger (New York Red Bulls)
7. Emmanuel Ochoa: goalkeeper (San Jose Earthquakes)
8. Diego Hernandez: attacking midfield/winer (FC Dallas)
9. Nelson Pierre: striker/winger (Philadelphia Union)
10. Chris Thaggard: winger (Queen City Mutiny)
11. Steven Ramirez: striker/attacking midfield (LAFC)
12. Francis Jacobs: center midfield (Orange County SC)
13. Dominic Dubon: winger (Philadelphia Union)
14. Diego Rosales: center back (LAFC)
15. Alex Alcala: defensive midfield/center midfield (Stockton TLJ FC)
16. Edwin Avalos: right back (Monarcas Morelia)
17. Nolan Norris: left back (FC Dallas)
18. Mateo Pinilla: center back (Houston Dynamo)
19. Angel Martinez: defensive midfield/center back (Seattle Sounders)
20. Jordan Jones: defensive midfield (FC Dallas)
21. Marcelo Mazzola: striker (Philadelphia Union)
22. Demitrius Tanks: center back (LA Galaxy
23. Ramsey Ray: fullback (Columbus Crew)
24. Robert Willcot: striker (LAFC)
25. Robert Deziel: attacking midfield (Celta Vigo)

And here's the names to watch from the next few years from the same time:

1. Adrian Simons-Gill
2. Aaron Heard
3. Barjung Darboe
4. Matt Corocoran
5. Mark Cajamarca
6. Alex Wesolowsky
7. Myles Perkovich
8. Michael Luande
9. Bento Estrela
10. Luis Moreno
11. Axel Perez
12. Joah Reyna
    

and then these HMs:

1. 
   

Other notable 2006 USYNT players

• Kelvin Da Costa: Center Back (NYCFC)
• Gabrial Brandon: Center Back (FC Dallas)
• Kimbikula Mbula: Right Back (San Antonio FC)
• Zen Franco: Striker (LAFC)
• Diego Bravo-Acosta: Striker (Total Futbol Academy)
• Patrick Shaw: Striker (New York Red Bulls)
• Diego Kochen: Goalkeeper (FC Barcelona)
• Henry Canizales: Left Back (FC Dallas)
• Solomon Straub: Center Mid (Minnesota United)
• Owen Presthus: Winger (Columbus Crew)

Other notable 2007 USYNT players

• Din Klapija: Striker (NYCFC)
• Henry Bornstein: Midfielder (Philadelphia Union)
• Brice Miller: Center Mid (FC Dallas)
• Gavin Turner: Center Mid (DC United)
• Jaime Vega Espinosa: Midfielder (New England Revolution)

Notable 2008 USYNT players

• Kellen LeBlanc: Winger (Philadelphia Union)
• Marius Aiyenero: Forward (Chicago Fire)
• Christopher Cupps: Midfielder (Chicago Fire)
• Jack Kortkamp: (Minnesota United)
• Ryland Vue: (Minnesota United)
• DeCarlo Guerra: Midfielder (LAFC)

 

I'm not. I'm not sure how many times I have to write that I'm just having fun with this and not criticizing the person ranking (who isn't even you, by the way).

But it's funny, when I did it, I knew the poster that is on here who ranked them wouldn't be offended, but I also knew that you would and be totally weird about it, so congratulations on that?

I don't actually think the busts I've listed here are actually over-represented to Mexican-Americans. Two of our best 2003s are Mexican-American -- Luna and Pepi -- and the lists aren't overcrowded with with them.

I know what people mean: in a broad, stereotypical way, Mexican-Americans do tend to be more skilled on the ball and at a younger age relative to other Americans. We've seen a decent number get ranked highly young that simply don't have the athleticism to compete once people catch up.

And when a player does -- like Ricardo Pepi -- they succeed. I don't think that there's anything particular to the ethnicity except a cultural advantage to an early start on skill play.

The overhype tended to coincide with the "Kleiban Era" of hype, where people looked down on athletic players and tended to overhype young skills.

But for this era? Eh, I'm very happy that the two most productive USMNT players from the era are Mexican-American.

Again, you seem super salty that I'm simply pointing out that predicting these things at a young age is very hard and somewhat of a fool's errand.

You continue to take these things very personally no matter how it is phrased.

I think this is a bizarre level of anaylsis.

For one, the guys you have listed as busts aren't busts. In fact, as I've shown above, Luna in particular has way outperformed expectations. You've picked four guys with pro careers, three of which are very important for their teams. And the other, we always knew was a bit of a lottery pick and probably needs to be converted to striker.

How is Luna a bust at all? It's like you decided that "Stay in MLS --> Unambitious --> Failure" when everyone ranked a bunch of guys higher -- including "more ambitious" guys and he's outperformed really all but Pepi.

Dude had the most goal contributions for the USMNT this year. But he's a bust and we don't list any of these other guys who are basically out of soccer or can't get professional run?

I've already addressed the Mexican-American thing; I won't re-litigate. And injuries are injuries.

Trying to figure out the specifics of an individual birth year is diving into a level of variance at an individual basis that doesn't yield any actionable results. There's no real answer here, and the only learning is that trying to predict guys even at age 17 contains a lot of variance.

 

More broadly, I think dual-nationals that we're fighting with other nations with tend to get a "hype bump." Particularly when we're fighting with Mexico over somebody like Jonathan Gomez. That's been the case for 25 years. Anybody notice that Julian Araujo has done squadoosh this club season?

Justin Che is a non-Mexican American example. After he broke thru and was on loan at Bayern Munich, he started talking about he was "open" to other national teams. He was eligible for Germany and Cameroon (and Russia too, but that always seemed unlikely). Once he waffled like that, we started agressively calling him up, even to the senior USMNT. Based on what? A dozen games for the Dallas first team. We probably overvalued his potential.

It was the Jonathan Gonzalez fiasco that changed the nature of my "dual-national panic" forever. I've come to the point of believing that our pool will keep producing the "next wave." That we can lose Araujo or Vargas or Efrain Alvarez or David Ochoa because the pool will continue producing.

We can lose Araujo because another RB will be developed. And he was. Freeman is a good player. There are others coming.

Non-Mexico example. Amir Richardson? What's he doing this season? We'll keep developing central midfielders.