possible expansion market with most potential is...

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by 4door, Aug 28, 2010.

  1. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    for my money it could be Sacramento.


    (before we start, of course money/ownership/stadium=done deal...but let me make the case)


    1) 2.2M metro area (bigger than KC, SJ, CBUS, and 2XSLC)
    2) highly diverse
    3) No NHL
    4) No MLB
    5) No NFL
    6) No Major NCAA
    7) Only the Kings (NBA) which has strong rumors about relocation to Seattle
    8) Biggest metro area with only 1 Pro team, and they have poor attendance and may be gone before a new team begins play
    9) 120 miles away from San Jose (closer than Sea to Port or Sea to Vanc) for traveling fans


    Now the Kings might leave because the city won't pay to rehab their arena, so a team would probably need to construct a stadium with private funds, but if the Kings do relocate, it will leave Sacramento by far the biggest metro area without a major league team (like 500k+ bigger than next biggest). It seems like a market with lots of potential. I am shocked that since the talks about the Kings over the past year, there hasn't been a single potential owner step up and at least announce a potential bid to test the local interest.
     
  2. kodiakTFC

    kodiakTFC Member

    Jul 6, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I'm guessing your not an investment banker. How could a city whose only foray into professional sports is a fledging basketball team be proof of a potential candidate city for MLS? The Kings were second last in the NBA for attendance last year with 13,254 (which is bad by even MLS standards) and you think that because they can't support a bad basketball that this means they are great for MLS? There is a reason no other sports want to have anything to do with Sacramento and its the fact that it is an unproven sporting market.

    If you want to put your money anywhere, you put it on NY2.
     
  3. theENFORCER

    theENFORCER Member

    Apr 10, 2010
    NY
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    By your standards then a Florida team should be the choice(Miami or Orlando)

    I also think Phoenix is a good choice as well
     
  4. RedRover

    RedRover BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 15, 2007
    Possible expansion market with most potential is...

    A) Potential group has sufficient capital to keep the team going for a long, long time.

    B) They have, in place, a revenue generating stadium be it 18,000 or 80,000.

    C) Don Garber has a hard on for your town.

    That is all.
     
  5. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    how is miami a good choice (with a mlb, nhl, nfl, and nba team and a huge ncaa team). I think Orlando is a solid choice. I think out of all the cities in Florida it could work. I think the major issue with Phoenix is that you'd probably need a dome stadium which would put you into the red bull area level of investment, which not a lot of potential owners are willing to do.
     
  6. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    well ny2 is going to happen, not debating that. just looking at overall markets and seeing where a club could work. Remember the Kings had some of the best attendances a few years ago with one of the worst facilities. Then the team got really bad and the ownership demanded the city pay for a new stadium, tax payers voted it down (I believe more than once) and then for the past two years they have almost been openly talking to other cities about relocating. Sacramento is choosing to not support this team but they have shown in the past that they are more than capable of doing so. But if indeed the team leaves you have the biggest metro area in the US (by a large margin) without a major league team and without a major NCAA team. When you look at the size of the market (which is bigger than several already in MLS) having no major competition for ticket sales, corporate sponsorships, and local TV/Newspaper coverage it makes the POTENTIAL of the market I think as strong as any other city.
     
  7. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Using your criteria and based on my own personal bias I go with Detroit.

    1) 4 mil metro area (Metro Detroit is the 9th biggest urban area in US)
    2) highly diverse
    3) NHL (Red Wings franchise valued as 3rd in NHL)
    4) MLB (Tigers valued as mid range in the MLB)
    5) NFL (Lions valued as almost last in the NFL, but still worth 800+ mil)
    6) NBA (Pistons valued as 4th in the NBA)
    6) Major NCAA (MSU & UM near by)
    7) Proven sports town in multiple markets.
    8) One of the biggest metro areas without a MLS team.
    9) Near Chicago, Columbus & Toronto for traveling fans and rivalries.
    10) Metro Detroit has a stadium (Pontiac Silverdome recently held a Club international friendly between AC Milan and Panathinaikos. 30 thousand people attended)
    11) The guy who owns the Silverdome is rich and likes soccer. He has talked with MLS and he is working on plans to make the Silverdome MLS friendly.
     
  8. Shiver_Me

    Shiver_Me Member

    Aug 2, 2010
    Portland, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hard not to see San Diego at the top of any potential list due to its soccer interest. Now whether San Diego ever actually meets that potential is another question...

    After that, you can probably rate all the other remaining major metro areas as about the same: St. Louis, Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Baltimore. Detroit might be a smidge lower due to the economic future there.
     
  9. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    using my criteria? My criteria was that there would be a huge metro area with potential not a single major league team or large NCAA team to compete for local interest/tv time/print media/corporate sponsorship/etc. If the Kings move they will be the biggest metro area without a Major League team by a margin of 500k. And not to mention 45 miles away (also outside of bay area) is Stockton metro which is over 700k bringing the possible local fan base around 3M all without a single major league team.

    My evaluation was on the potential of the market. When you look at it the markets unbiased of where you happen to live or want an MLS team, and just look at the reality of the market and its ability to add a new major league team, I am shocked that people don't look at Sacramento as a huge potential market if indeed the Kings leave.
     
  10. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Detroit Qualifies in 2 out of 3 of these
    A) Rich guy who likes soccer & bought the Silverdome
    B) Silverdome owned (not rented) by potential owner
    C) Rich guy is working on this and Don Garber has mentioned Detroit a few times recently


    Detroit
    would be a smidge lower, but we are talking about Metro Detroit (the 9th largest urban area in the US). Not mention the Silverdome is located in one of the riches counties in the United States.

    I focused on this part of your criteria and used your list to help back me up. Metro Detroit has potential. As stated in previous post it is the 9th largest urban area (and that's not including Ann Arbor and Lansing both 1.5 hours away. If you include these cities it's 5-6 mil. People like to nock Detroit, and say we are depressed and can't support a team. But the numbers say differently.

    Detroit is a sports town and any team there will be supported. All you have to do is take a look at the Lions. They won 2 out 30 games and they are still making money. People are still going to the games, and there is no talk of them leaving to another city.
     
  11. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    the question is how stretched is the sports market. The amount of money in a given economy that a market is willing to spend on sports is not only lowered because an area like detroit is struggling economically, but because the market is very crowded. People are already spending their money on tickets to NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, and NCAA games. In the Sacramento-Stockton area (3 million) they are only spending money on NBA games (and very little of that) and in a few years NBA could be gone leaving a huge potential market. Lots of people, media, and corporations without a home team, no other market would have that much open market potential than Sacramento could have in a few years.
     
  12. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    The main competition for a potential MLS team in Metro Detroit would be the Pistons. The Palace of Auburn Hills is esentially "across the street" from the Silverdome. The Pistons are the 4th most valued team in the entire NBA and they play during a different season than MLS. Also both of these stadiums are located in one of the richest counties in the country. The other 3 teams are located in downtown Detroit (1 hour away).

    I have had this argument before about Detroits struggling economy. The auto industry and the city of Detroit have their problems, but it is not reflected in Detroits sports teams. The numbers don't add up. All 4 teams should be struggling at the box office and the fact remains they are not.
     
  13. BringSoccerToIndy

    May 24, 2008
    1001 West New York Street, Indianapolis, IN
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would say based off of pure potential Atlanta has the most since it's a large market that wouldn't only represent a city or state but a whole region of the country.

    I think NY2 has a lot of potential as well but having Red Bull in the same metro will slightly damper that. Either way I expect to see both of those expansion bids in MLS by the end of the decade.
     
  14. Utherhimo

    Utherhimo Member

    Dec 28, 2006
    Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    only way i see Sactown getting a team is in the 28th to 32nd team range....with Detriot being in 26 to 32....


    #20 East Again
    Only Runner: New York City

    #21: South
    FrontRunner: ATL
    Back-Up: Tampa Bay
    Dark Horse: Maimi, Reliegh, Porto Rico

    #22: Canada
    FrontRunner: Calgery
    Back-Ups: Ottawa, Quebec
    DarkHorse: Hamilton, Winnipeg

    #23: South
    FrontRunner: Tampa Bay
    Back-Up: ATL
    Dark Horse: Maimi, Reliegh, Porto Rico

    #24: South/MidWest
    FrontRunner: San Antonio
    Back-Up: Detriot
    Darkhorse: Austin, OKC, STL, Ottawa

    after that Chivas is moved to renamed: either a new name or Chivas de San Deigo
     
  15. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    The bolded cities are the only cities MLS has mentioned recently. I put Detroit in the 20 - 24 range. I believe Detroit is the only city with a stadium and a rich guy (who owns the stadium) on this list. I think there is a chance they could come in before NY2.
     
  16. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    IIRC, Sacramento is in the territory that MLS gave to San Jose
     
  17. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    do you have a link for this? Its 120 miles away, another metro area, another media market, other major leagues have teams in both the Bay area and Sacramento, and it is farther away than other clubs like Chester to Harrison. Seems like it would be a huge mistake to leave one club own a whole region like that, I know Metro/Bulls owned NY area until 2010 but then then a NYC team was possible. Would be interested to see what the actual territorial rights for each club are.
     
  18. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    Afraid I don't. I got it from another Big Soccer thread :D.

    Anyway, you're right that it's not a good idea to give such a large area to one team.

    FWIW, Portfolio.com did an analysis of the carrying capcity for Major League sports team of various Metros in the US & Canada. Apparently MLS has dozens of possible expansion areas, more than any other Major.

    http://www.portfolio.com/resources/SportsChart.pdf
    just to show I'm not a total blowhard.:eek::rolleyes:
     
  19. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic

    BTW do you have any idea where I can find data on or a list of the major media markets? Much obliged; Google search has turned up an ever-increasing list of blind alleys.
     
  20. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I really would be surprised if MLS gave San Jose Sacramento's market. I can see giving them the whole Bay Area (which I personally think a SF team might work along with a SJ team but that is another discussion). I work in media so there is no doubt that Sacramento is a different media market than San Jose. It is quite far away and people of Sacramento don't identify themselves as Bay Area. It would be like Milwaukee not being able to have a team because they are too close to Chicago. It would be shocking, but who knows...

    http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettrack/us_hh_by_dma.asp
     
  21. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    Much obliged for the link :)

    A SF team very likely would work along with San Jose. Back in 1978 the Oakland Stompers drew 11,900 for one season before relocating to Edmonton, while the Quakes drew 14,000. A (well-run!!) team in SF proper with its own identity should draw roughly the same as the MLS Quakes - when they're not in Buck Shaw - in the stands and the general market.
     
  22. flippin269

    flippin269 Member+

    Aug 3, 2003
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Miami, no question.

    Only market that I think has more potential than that one is NYC2, but it sounds like it's pretty much a given that NYC2 will be #20. Miami is THE place.
    It is by far the strongest soccer market in SE America, and SE America is the last frontier for MLS.

    That being said, if they do it, they have to do it big. That Barca-Miami bid would have epically failed. They need their own SSS IN central Miami, not in FIU. And they need their OWN team with their own brand that people in Miami can rally around, not be a feeder team to Barcelona like Chivas USA was branded.
     
  23. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    miami has had
    1. average attendance for the Heat (15th in the League)
    2. low attendance for the Dolphins (27th in League)
    3. low attendance for the Marlins (28th in League)
    4. low attendance for Panthers (25th in the League)
    5. low attendance for Miami FC (1200 average reported but probably 1/2 that in the actual stands)
    6. low attendance for the Miami Fusion (7500 in 2000) and they folded

    Yes the WC ratings were good, but everything else looks sketchy. And after the recent revelations from what happened with the Marlins...http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/23/1788655/now-we-have-proof-florida-marlins.html
    I don't think you can get that city to pay a single dime for a new stadium. That means 100% privately funded, which means you'd need a Red Bull level financial commitment to do it right in Miami. But when you look at the facts about Miami sports, that becomes a HUGE HUGE gamble that I don't think anyone is going to take. It could work, but you can't count on local governments to build a stadium, and I think you'll need stars to make it work in Miami. Which means you need someone like Red Bull willing to throw down 200-250M, which is going to be hard to find in this economy and in that sports market.
     
  24. flippin269

    flippin269 Member+

    Aug 3, 2003
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's my take:

    I bet $100 that the Miami Heat will be one of the top five-seven teams in NBA attendance this year

    They were #19 last season out of 32 teams with 67,542 (about 1,000 less than the NFL average, but still steady). Also, if you go to Miami, you can't escape Dolphins-fanhood over there.

    No dispute there. Miami just isn't an MLB town.

    That's because the NHL is dumb. They moved teams out of Canadian cities where they breath hockey and moved them into places where the people are allergic to snow (Miami, Phoenix, the Sahara Desert is next, I'm sure). If they want to see a fight in a confined space in Miami, all they have to do is go to a club in South Beach at 2:30AM

    Also, the Panthers don't play in Miami. I think they play 30 miles from there.

    You can't really judge attendance in MLS based off of USL years past. Toronto and Seattle both had USL attendance that was nowhere near what their MLS numbers are today


    They played in Fort Lauderdale, not Miami. Once they actually have a team in Miami, that can be comparable. But they were, what, over 25 miles away? It's nearly impossible to be strong in Miami's market when you're a professional team not playing in Miami


    This part here though is right on the money:

    That is EXACTLY what would be needed to make it work in Miami.
    1) Big-time financial commitment
    2) Big-time star players on the roster
    3) Support from the city

    They can't go small and careful like they did the Fusion. If they do it, they would have to do it big. But if they do, they will get more than their money's worth back. The teams that were successful in Miami all did it big to get there. No one should expect anything less from any expansion team in MLS from now on either.
     
  25. 4door

    4door Member+

    Mar 7, 2006
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/attendance/_/year/2009/sort/homePct

    dolphins were 27th in the league.


    But this is the reason why other markets are a better option, you essentially need a quarter billion dollars to make it work in Miami. Look at the city I first mentioned Sacramento. From Sacramento to Stockton is about 40 miles (rural suburban where people do drive everywhere) that has a total population of about 3 million people. There is only 1 major league team no major NCAA team and that team may move. You have lots of rural land very close to the city that can be purchased for a fraction of the cost of places like downtown miami. And it is not like you have huge other entertainment venues to compete with like other markets have (Orlando and Vegas). When you look at total population, demographics, participation rates, and a less cluttered sports scene...Sacramento seems like a stronger option. If the Kings move, then they will be the only game in town, 500k bigger than the next largest city without a major league team. Finding local support, media support, and corporate support will be much much easier than a market like Miami where the only hope you have is to blow people away by the amount of money you've spent.
     

Share This Page