Poll: When will we hit a developmental level where our excess talent starts to take over MLS?

Lodeiro is 33. The Americans I mentioned are 18 to 22. Some have stayed, the rest went to Europe and will inevitably return. Of those who stayed many are providing a big impact. If we continue to produce at this level or higher from this point on then we will inevitably see a lot of high quality Americans in MLS in ten years time. Essentially, 5 Landon Donovans that are supplemented by incoming Dempseys and Bradleys also times 5. Or maybe times 3 or 10, who knows? The important thing is that with this level of production it is inevitable that will see a period where MLS is flooded with quality Americans.

 

Another thing to note is MLS spends a lot more money bringing attacking talent over than they do on the defensive end. Makes it a bit harder for young guys to really be featured since clubs probably want to see the millions they put into bringing these guys in pay off.

 

What positions are Americans objectively at or near the best at in MLS? From a fairly objective data perspective:

CB: Walker is at or near the top, Miles Robinson and Justen Glad top 20. Long around there too. So MLS is doing fine there.

FBs: Bye, Jones, Lennon, Lovitz all top 10 FBs in the league. Tolkin flying up the list too.

Holding mids: Parks is top 3 at worst (but really best in the league). Then Bedoya and Roldan in top 10. There's Bradley, Lletget, Polster, Nagbe, Delgado all top players in the league. No shortage of good players here. Morales, Williamson, Pomykal, all in an extremely good tier.

AMs: It's just Djordje. No one else is close. Gutierrez does well for a player his age but gets shifted out to wing too often where he's not impactful. Good AMs don't last long if they're young (like Aaronson)

W: Arriola and Morris are among the best in the league at the wing position. Fafa Picault, Efra Alvarez, Lewis, Robbie Robinson all respectable.

ST: Ebobisse, Vazquez around the top 10. Sapong and Ferreira a little lower down. The real weird thing is the general lack of youth players since Pepi has moved on.

 

I think it's improving, but I think the bias is still there in the system. We are all victims of it. I've been trying to put more emphasis on size and athleticism in assessing players recently. I'd rather not, but it makes no sense to ignore the trends within the system in this country.

 

For Americans to begin dominating MLS we need more than just Americans capable of dominating in MLS. We need capable players that prefer MLS to Europe.

There are a few problems: MLS keeps improving is one. It takes a better player to dominate in MLS than it did 20yrs ago. There is increased demand for top US prospects. There was a time when, due at least in part to limited European demand, most (or at least a higher percentage than current) of the top US developed players played domestically. As a result, we are now asking the fringe USMNT (and below) player, or the very young prospects to carry much of the MLS load. We still have a few important USMNT players in MLS but the Pulisics, McKennies, Adams, Reynas etc are all in Europe.

I believe it will still be a few more years before we start to see more dominance in MLS from US developed players, but not as many as some might think. I believe the key to the American player playing a more pivotal role in MLS is not the top prospects but the secondary level prospects. We need more quality depth. Those that might be fringe USMNT, that might be able to carve out a solid career in a 2nd tier league, or even a 2nd tier team in a top league. Those are the players that will be more likely to stay in MLS or return early and raise the level of MLS which is the first important step. The first of those players are likely 22-24ish now....maybe Ebobisse, Parks, and a few others but the bulk of the first wave are probably 16-20ish right now. My prediction is that within 5-10 years, there will be a noticeable shift in demographics in MLS. Some will be at the dp level but most will be the bottom 2/3 of the roster. We will start to see most teams with 7-9 Americans starting regularly and Very few, if any teams with zero Americans will remain. Many or most of the top level dp's will likely still be foreign but as the league improves, more and more of the top young US prospects will choose to stay (like Ferreira chose to do at FCD) and some of the top foreign based players might even choose to return.

My prediction is that MLS will look significantly different in 5 years and it will take another 5-10 years before the majority of the transformation is complete. I do believe that top level Foreign talent will continue to be signed in MLS, so I am not saying that foreign dp's or top young Argentine, or Brazilian players won't continue to be part of the business model but only that they will likely (imo) begin to be outnumbered by US players.

 

I've always loved the pure #10 but right now in the world that players isn't really getting minutes. You're correct in adjusting to reality and that is a lot of the best midfields are pretty defensive in nature and pressing keeps the classic #10 off the field. Where would Carlos Valderamma play right now?

 

I wonder what the percentages are for the top 1/3 of the first 11 compared to the bottom 2/3 (or go by quartiles)
for example
>Q3 minutes: w% foreign, x% American
<Q3 minutes: y% foreign, z% American

My bet would be that the z>x.

 

I think is the thing isthat right now pretty much any American player who gets to the level where they are capable of dominating MLS, has already gone to Europe prior to that point. Rightly or wrongly alot guys are trying to get over there at fairly young ages and at a point where they've only just established themselves at the MLS level.

 

thats why the second level pro is so important. They are key to improving the overall quality of the league and making it more attractive relative to Europe

in addition, the equally important factor is usl. As mls improves, it will become more difficult for younger talent (both first tier and 2nd tier prospects) to make the jump to mls unless usl and lower levels like mls next.

It’s not really about the top level talent. It’s about the depth. The top level talent has always been about the outliers. The more depth and the higher level of that depth, the higher the level of the 95%ile and the higher level of the outliers

 

The Argentine playmakers that don’t make it over to Europe usually can’t keep up physically with the modern game or aren’t that spectacular to begin with. Producing more of these types wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing or a negative indicator but…does it really matter? France and Germany don’t produce many of these types. Why must we?

 

It's pretty straight forward in my mind. Do we have American MLS players that generate a lot of assists? Only Mihailovic does it consistently.

 

Personally, I don’t think our excess talent will ever dominate MLS. They could if the league overall does not improve. But our league will continue to have more and more investment that other leagues around the world will simply not be able to keep up with if MLS wanted to dump loads of cash into the league.

MLS to be a truly top league is going to have to rely pretty heavily on importing international talent in order to present a product that will draw eyes of the common fans away from the premier league/champions league/Liga MX, and onto MLS. For every good American that chooses to stay in the league, once MLS is really firing on all cylinders, there will also be a 2-3 Cucho Hernandez type players signed as well. Because of the popularity of the sport worldwide there will always be an international talent that can be signed and willing if we truly become a top league with the willingness to spend on transfers like a top 5 league. The bar to be a player that is truly impactful in the league, assuming it keeps improving, will continue to be higher than the level of the excess domestic talent. This is a good thing as well, because our top and excess talent will continue to improve across the country.

If the league ever plateaus in level and positions as a selling league to Europe as the long term (20 years) strategy then there is a very real chance our excess talent could take the league over. But being an American market sport I don’t see this happening long term, I see the league setting a very high bar for itself

 

Assists are a terrible metric to evaluate players and should probably just be ignored entirely

 

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— Matt Hartman (@MattSHartman) July 28, 2022

This is an interesting chart but with a LOT of need to control for expansion. Also, I think 2021 and 2022 are actually 2020 and 2021.

The total number of starters per the above chart is

129, 118, 116, 110, 103, 94, 96, 104, 103.

With this there are two clear sections to the chart.
1) Steady descent in American starters from 2013 to 2018. This coincides with the retirement and supersub status of the Golden Generation.
2) Reversal and occasional plateauing of starters from 2019 until now.

What is harder to control is the mass recruiting of YNTs to Europe, increased sale of US players, the large exodus of YNTs to other NTs and the overall improvement in league quality.

For the most part this clearly matches the increase in quality of the American player and the fact that it is mostly the "excess talent" that will stick around. Is this excess talent good enough to dominate the league? I think we are far from that level but experience suggests that a number of players will return to MLS.

 

Knowing the league they will quickly pivot to MNT level American talent just before the 2026 world cup making the excess talent issue a bit moot. Of course, there will be a number of other WC bound MNT players being purchased as well.

 

Feel free to provide an alternative metric.

 

xA and G+ are both much better than assists which are mostly outside the control of the passer once the ball leaves their foot.

Mihailovic is a top 10% player by either standard, I just think there are better ways to show it

 

I think the major flaw in this overall logic is assuming that while American talent level increases all other factors remain constant. While I agree US talent will increase other factors bringing foreign talent to MLS will also increase with salaries and their talent level. Our top talent will also seek it's level by going to where the salaries, prestige, and top level competition is and that will remain in Europe for at least a very long time. US talent level in MLS will increase along with salaries, along with foreign talent recruited, and many of those US talents will increase the number of players on top 5 teams in top 5 leagues.
The ever rising tide of everything will still keep US starters in the low 100's with some variation up and down depending on a number of other factors. I still need to see a bigger commitment by MLS clubs in allowing US players larger roles for younger ages. I think and hope it's coming but still need to see it more.

 

I did check xA FWIF.

 

This is still partially a fan culture thing. Does our fan base have more faith in the fancy import or from the next young starlet from the academy? I think we know the answer to that. At least some MLS clubs have realized that there is a lot of money to be made from selling a young player.