Even if it is simple to change it just seems nitpicking and whining to me about a rule that has so many other variables that go into it.
A other option that has been floated in the past is to take penalties after 90 minutes and only use them as a tiebreaker after playing extra time. So team who loses the penalties must come out & attack. Not endorsing this just putting it forward Tor discussion - play 90 minutes - no winner means penalties so the same as the Copa - then play extra time with the penalties used as a tie breaker if it’s still a draw after 120
Also, what are the statistics of a team that does not kick off and keep possession of the ball in the first half of extra time? I think instead of having two 15 minute halves... ...we should have four quarters of 7 minutes and 30 seconds. Team "A" gets to kick off the first quarter. Team "B" gets to kick off the 3rd Quarter.
Which leads to another question: Do captains always select to kick off every time they win the coin toss before the start of extra time just as they always select to kick first during a shootout?
For those of you who favor the ABBA format, if your team won the coin toss would you rather your team kick... 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th... or 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 10th... I think I would still want to kick first. But I'm not as 100% certain as I am under the ABAB format.
Maybe we should have the underdog/lower seeded team take all 5 penalty kicks first. Then have the favorite take their 5 kicks. But do one before the game and one after the game. Do not reveal the results until after the fourth quarter of extra time.
Yep, shooting first would still be an advantage because it means there is generally not quite as much pressure on that 5th kick. But the advantage would not be as pronounced as shooting first for every round. The advantage of going first would be so small that I think I'd rather choose the end to shoot at than choose the order at that point.
The advantage is small enough that I'd be willing to flip a coin. But yeah we can make the advantage even smaller and create a more equal world by making the PK shootout 6 rounds instead of 5. When we do that, Comrade, the Revolution will be complete (tee-hee!)
What would make it the most fair is having each keeper go to each side of the pitch. Then having each team's captain chose who should kick one penalty kick. Kick the balls simultaneously. You keep on going until someone misses.
As an England fan, I would support almost any change in the tie breakers. Including going back to a simple coin toss. The ABBA proposal logically seem like a change for the better. Given that starters have a statistical advantage, and this can be explained by psychology. Wikipedia has some very nice lists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_penalty_shoot-outs with links to regional tournaments. Funnily enough, in the last WC, all 4 shoot outs were won by the team not starting. I had a look at the data for the WC and the Euros. Out of 51 shoot outs (excluding the unimportant bronze final shoot out in 1980), 27 starters won. Thats 53%. In the case of England, they have won 2 out of 9. The ones they won, against Spain and Colombia, they started the first, but not the second. Out of the 7 they lost they started 3. Heck, they started both against the Germans that they lost. Also interesting is that England won 4 of the first 5 coin tosses for deciding who goes first (assuming the winner of the coin toss always chooses to go first), then in the last 4 they did not get to go first. My data may be wrong, please correct me. Englands strategy for shoot outs should be to avoid them at all cost. England has a decent win in extra time stat. 3 out of 5, I think. Much better than pens. Last 3 WCs was won without the winning team being involved in a shoot out. (of course last 4 Euros, the winner had to survive at least one shoot out).
Well, with UEFA doing away with the away goals rule, English players should get more practice in taking penalties in high pressure situations. Of course, non-English players will get more practice too but with the dominance of English-based teams in the Champions League combined with the inevitable increase in number of shootouts we will witness from here on, English players will probably be impacted more than players for any other national team. The question is, will they improve with that experience?
Probably, and then at least the Europeans might get an edge against the South-Americans Eventually, I think every shooter will kick unbeatable penalties, like the robot Harry Maguire (damn I wish he could take all 5). Then FIFA will have to come up with something new ...