Man, can't wait for tomorrow's new investors' press conference and the restored hope of a DCU soccer-specific stadium! However, DCU is about to embark on their most season/playoff defining run of EIGHT straight matches against EASTERN Conference opponents...almost all on the road. This gauntlet starts next week in Houston and ends at the end of August! Two months of conference madness will test our defense, test Benny O's coaching ability, test DeRosario's and Pontius's health, test what so many outside of DCU-land believe that we'll just fade away and not even make the top five. Of 24 possible points, how many points do we need to stay in first come the end of August? How many will ensure us a top five playoff position? We're eight points away from the 5th seed as of 7/9, with NE and Columbus finding their form. Can Montreal make a push for 5th if Di Vaio and Nesta find their form? What needs to go right for DCU during this season-defining stretch? What can we ill afford to go wrong (besides the obvious...injuries)? New Investors Press conference tomorrow is grand, but this stretch is so crucial and can't be overlooked. Winning and tying on the road...against conference opponents...will go a long way in creating some distance now that we're all at 18 games played. I'll be happy if we can be in a top two spot after this run...
Scratch that...home and away matches are even...not mostly on the road. My take on points earned during this stretch: At Houston...draw 1pt At Columbus...win 3 pts Home Columbus...Win 3 pts (not feelin' the Crew...need these SIX points during stretch to ensure the point gap against the Crew gives us at least a playoff five spot) At Sporting KC ...loss 0 pts ( trying not to predict with my heart here...would do cartwheels over a draw) Home Philly...win 3 pts ( almost a muTst win as we'll probably be a point or two behind SKC and NY with Chitown breathing down our necks) Home Chicago...draw 1 pt ( probably the one team, along with Houston, that's had our number in crucial matches throughout the past few years...Grazziani being with the Fire will be key for their stretch run though) At Montreal...draw 1 pt. (this match concerns me as I have a feeling Di Vaio and Nesta will instill much needed stability and on-the-pitch leadership, plus I think the Impact will be in contention for the fifth spot when this match is played...so plenty of home crowd motivation) Home Red Bulls...win 3 pts. (payback is a bitch for that away loss on national tv...plain and simple...we got brand these mothe£¥<%€r$! With DCU on their asses! Lo siento...no Toronto during this stretch. However, we only play Houston, KC, and Chicago once. Columbus, Philly, and Montreal matches are key in defining this stretch and ultimately DCU's playoff seed at end of season. 15 out of 24 possible...one loss in KC...hopefully a two spot come end of Agosto!
15 pts would be the standard for that home/away schedule. I personally don't care in what manner they get those points, but if they meet that standard, playoffs should be a given, and retaining the top spot in the east should be very realistic, considering they are all east teams. Someone would have to go a major tear and take poiints from us to move comfortably into first. we have 33 now, =15, would be 48 points, and I seem to remember ~40 being the playoff zone and ~50 or 55 being 1st place/shield territory. If you want my guess, I'd throw out 12-14 is what I expect. Less than 12 would be a failure.
The challenge will be the stretch starting with Philly August 19th. We will play 5 games in a 14 day run. Grueling! Without major injuries we will need Branko to play some 90 minute games to give DeRo a break. Expect to see all of Pontius, DeLeon, Cruz and Najar on the wings that stretch. Plus Korb to give Russel a break. And hope Dudar makes his comeback for cover for BMac and Dejan. Barring a major injury - if we can pull points during this stretch we will be looking good for the playoffs. We lose to Houston to start and we have 4 teams within 6 points of us in the east and it can get crowded for the playoffs. Wonder if Garber approves the Cameron transfer will Kinnear sit him even though he doesn't have the Nat's pedigree necessary to clear EPL hurdles?
Where we stand before the 8 match Eastern Conference Gauntlet: DCU's Head-to-Head Record in Conference (as of 7/10): (DCU: Wins-Losses-Draws: East. Conf. Foe) DCU: 0-1-0: SKC DCU: 1-1-0: NYRB DCU: 1-1-0: HOU DCU: 0-0-0: CHI DCU: 2-0-0:NE DCU: 1-0-1: MTL DCU: 0-0-0: CLB DCU: 2-0-0: TOR DCU: 1-1-0: PHI GOAL DIFFERENCE: DCU +12 SKC+6 NYRB +5 NE +2 CHI 0 CLB 0 PHI 0 HOU -2 MTL -9 TOR -15 2012 MLS PLAYOFF TIEBREAKERS: The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition) If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the greater goal difference against all other teams during the regular season. (goal differential)
Although we lost to the PUnion in the USOC, we are 1-0-0 in the league with a +1 goal difference. asitis
agree with a lot of this. Although, I think the "1st place/shield territory" is historically closer to 1.9 to 2.0 ppg in MLS. with 34 games per season now, it will likely require more points than 60 to challenge for the shield. Last season with 34 games played, the top teams finished with 67 and 63 points. http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/2011 Not certain how parity and results will unfold across the second half of this season, but I'd assume the shield winner will be closer to 65 points total than to 55 points total.
We're just a bit under 2 pts per game right now - These are against Eastern Conf foes, so points for us would be points against them, and vice-versa - So, 14-16 pts out of 24 would be fine - 18 or more would be incredible - Less than 14 would be bad, but less than 10 would be horrid I'm still thinking would should get 17 or 18 out of this - Some one else might get hot and take over first place, but so what - We would still be solidly in the top group
I think if you're talking 'what do we need to put ourselves in a good playoff position' then 3W 1L 4T is good enough because it denies points to other conference teams If the question is 'what do we need to put ourselves in a top playoff position' (and what I would like to see) DCU goes for wins and points 5W 2L 1T = 16 points this Houston game is going to be tough, although the weather should not phase the team after last week and a forecasted high of only 86
You are probably right about that. I was going on memory. Does anyone know the team's training schedule? Do they routinely train at the same times every day, or do they move up training times depending on rain, high temps, etc? I was thinking about it, and despite the fact that there were multiple 100 degree days, if the team holds training in the morning those days, when it's around 80, we are no more ready for high temps than anybody else really. Just wondering how the club handles it. I assume we train at the same times for scheduling and because it always seems to benefit the body when you train/play at regular times and intervals.
Shield winners PPG: Code: Year Team PPG 1996 Tampa Bay Mutiny 1.81 1997 D.C. United 1.72 1998 Los Angeles Galaxy 2.13 1999 D.C. United 1.78 2000 Kansas City Wizards 1.78 2001 Miami Fusion 2.04 2002 Los Angeles Galaxy 1.82 2003 Chicago Fire 1.77 2004 Columbus Crew 1.63 2005 San Jose Earthquakes 2.00 2006 D.C. United 1.72 2007 D.C. United 1.83 2008 Columbus Crew 1.90 2009 Columbus Crew 1.63 2010 Los Angeles Galaxy 1.97 2011 Los Angeles Galaxy 1.97
If the team manages 15 pts from this stretch, then they are a legit contender. We can then start talking about things like home field and how deep the team might go in the playoffs. Less than 15 will not be a disaster, it would just be a sign that United is not, as some have hoped, part of an elite group of 2-3 teams pulling away from the rest of the league. I certainly won't go into this stretch *expecting* to get 15pts.
Then, for what it's worth, the average SS winner PPG has been 1.84. Top of the table currently (by PPG): 1.95 - SJ 1.83 - SKC 1.83 - DCU 1.82 - NYRB 1.8 - RSL 1.67 - VAN 1.58 - SEA 1.55 - CHI
Not much given the different setups of the league and particularly the shootout. Looking at the last few years would be a little more useful.