Points needed for Playoff Spot

Discussion in 'Montreal Impact' started by (De La)Redstriker06, Aug 19, 2012.

  1. (De La)Redstriker06

    May 3, 2003
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Palestine
    Going into the final third of the season I had told a couple of buddies that we were entering a phase of 11 games that would be like 11 finals. So far we're 4-0 and in touching distance of a playoff spot. Unfortunately for us the East seems to be the stronger conference this year and we're going to have to better our current pace (1.33 PPG) which would come out to 40 points over 30 games (good enough to clinch a playoff spot during shorter seasons in 2007, 2008, 2009) and 45 points over 34 games (1 point off NYRB's pace who were the last team to clinch in 2011).

    L'Impact are on the verge of breaking the record for most goals scored by a 21st Century expansion team (currently on 39, need 41 to break the record). Montreal is also the first Canadian team to record 11 wins in a season- and has matched Portland's win total from last season.

    If the win streak at home continues then Seattle's record 14 win season (albeit over 30 games) is also in play.

    Personally, I think we'll need to beat our direct rivals (DC, Columbus, and Chicago) and essentially win 5/7 down the stretch to finish on 51 points. Chicago on the road will be a very tough test (as will Houston but I'm not expecting to win there). Coming into the last month of the season we have two trap games- Toronto on the road (who would love to spoil our season) and New England at home. It should be an interesting final two months of the season!
     
    claw hammer repped this.
  2. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Here's where I reveal my math skills or maybe insanity. ;) Let's see where it takes me. The big difference between this yr and last is the number of draws.. it's an incredible difference. Last yr in the East every team had 10 draws or more except Columbus, who had 8. Two teams had 16 draws! Two had 15. This yr nobody has more than 7, and every team has 5 or less except Houston. One team has 2, and we have 3. This is after approximately 24 games average, which is 70% of the season played.

    In the East (similar in the West), in 2011 draws accounted for 40% of the games and in 2012 so far draws account for roughly 18%! So there are twice as many draws last yr.

    What does this mean, it means more points this yr. A draw hands out 2 pts to 2 teams, and a win hands out 3 pts. 20% games this yr handed out 3 pts to 2 teams where in 2011 they were draws and 2 pts. ..

    Ok I have to think about this ... 20% of the time a team gets a .5 pt more ... that's 3 to 4 pts over a season .. last yr top 5 got 46 pts .. that gives 50 pts this yr.. pretty much agrees with your analysis ... They might get by with 50 or 49, I dunno, depends on the draw rate in league wide if it increases at all.. Anyway it's gonna be tough! If they win all their home games it looks very possible! But they probably need to win at least 2 of 4 road games.
     
  3. (De La)Redstriker06

    May 3, 2003
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Palestine
    There are a lot of variables another way of looking at it is just to extrapolate PPG over 34 games:

    Sporting KC 62-63
    Red Bull NY 58
    Houston 58
    Chicago 56-57
    DC United 55-56
    -----------------------
    Columbus 46-47
    Montreal 45

    Of course these projections have to be taken with a grain of salt. As they say in investing: Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

    Montreal has some advantages here. No CCL distraction (which will be an issue for Houston), no midweek games (which took a heavy toll on the team in June/July), and most importantly- they lead the form table over the past five matches.

    That said for Montreal to sneak in a team ahead of it has to falter:

    Sporting Kansas City:
    You can scratch SKC from that list. With only 9 games left to play midweek games will not be an issue (only one @ RBNY- followed by MTL on Saturday).

    Houston Dynamo:
    The other form team at the moment. They have a brutal schedule with two trips to Central America sandwiched in this month. They play 4 times in 11 days and that's just in August. Luckily for them, they play Columbus and Toronto at home. They play 6 games times in September (1 CCL) 4 of those games will be on the road. September will determine whether Houston will be a Top 3 team- I don't think they'll get drawn into our dogfight because their home form is so good.

    NYRB:
    Two tough road games to end the month: SKC and then DC United in midweek. Only 4 games in September but there's a midweek game sandwiched in there and a trip to their House of Horrors: Gillette Stadium. Three games in October. Hard to get a read on NYRB- they run hot and cold. Defensive issues are bound to crop up- their attack looks amazing on paper but something keeps reminding me of the Real Madrid side of 2004 (Galaticos went on an epic losing streak to throw away 10 point lead due in part to lack of defensive cover). I'm not suggesting they won't make the playoffs I'm just saying that it could all go to sh!t really quickly.

    Chicago:
    Five home games five away games all against Eastern Conference opponents. They need to win half their games to meet their projected point total. They're surging whilst DC United is in a mini-slump- the question is whether they'll continue with this momentum. Good news for Montreal is that they play the Fire following a mid-week game away to Toronto.

    DC United:
    Was very impressed with this team when they dismantled Montreal 3-0 on June 30th. Then they took a two-week break and came back really flat only 1 win in last 4 games (albeit three where on the road). Play Philly tonight followed by another home game against Chicago in midweek before traveling to Montreal. They need at least 4 points before coming up to Stade Saputo because they have another two games in the space of a week at home to NYRB and then in Sandy to face RSL.

    The schedule gets even more brutal after a two-week break. vs. NE. @PHI, vs. CHV (3 games in 8 days). A road trip will take them first to Portland and then Toronto the following week. Another two week break before a home game against Columbus followed by Chicago on the road to close out the season (this one could have a lot of implications).

    Columbus:
    Ton of games left to play (13!). 4 games in 11 days to close out the month. Then two to start off September a 10 day break and then 4 more games to close out the month. Montreal plays them on September 1st in the middle of a VERY busy stretch for the team. I don't see Columbus surviving August/September unless Higuaín does his best Gonzalo impersonation and starts banging in the goals.

    My best guess is that Columbus fails to keep pace. I'm pretty sure that regardless of what happens to l'Impact Columbus will not be in the playoffs. I think DC has a very tough task ahead of them maybe they'll be better equipped to handle their brutal stretch than we were but I doubt it. We won 2/5 in June and 3/6 in July and there were some pretty ugly games interspersed in that period.
     
    tippose and claw hammer repped this.
  4. (De La)Redstriker06

    May 3, 2003
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Palestine
    So we're in agreement then it's a quest for 51 points. With must wins vs. DCU, @ CLB, @CHI.
     
  5. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    (De La)Redstriker06 repped this.
  6. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    I suspect they have to win all their home games, the TFC game away, and one of CLB, CHI .. leaving HOU only as a must game if they have any slip-ups at home. I just can't see them winning both CLB and CHI away, consecutive .. for a team that won 2 road games all yr. I'm allowing them 2 losses/draws on the road.
     
  7. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    DC just drew against PHI ... best we can expect.. That's the thing, if suddenly there's a spurt of draws, maybe with teams playing a little more cautiously or something, then it gets a tiny bit easier..
     
  8. (De La)Redstriker06

    May 3, 2003
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Palestine
    Well DC just threw away two points at home against Philadelphia. DeRo missed a PK late and Boskovic got sent off. They've got Chicago midweek and then us next weekend.
     
  9. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Found another chart on that site.. near the bottom.. looks at the point totals, and chances of making the playoffs.. 57 pts giving 100% chance in .. 51 pts, gives about 65% chance, 50 pts gives 48% chance .. 49 pts 17% etc. This matches up pretty well to what we have said..

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/Impact2.html
     
  10. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    NY grabbed a win late against Portland .. Rickett let in 3 goals .. he looked like he was in shooting gallery at the end.. didn't see the first two, but the 3rd I was wondering maybe he should have come out to punch the ball.

    Ok, I think I've posted enough for one day, I need to find something else to do. ha ha
     
  11. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Nice thread, I planned to make the same thing myself.

    I would have preferred Philly beating DC tonight, but 1 point each is really not too bad.

    Houston drawing Columbus is an excellent result for us, I watched Houston's 82' goal with delight.

    Looking forward this week:

    We have DC vs Fire on wednesday. A draw would be best but if not I'm going for a win by Chicago.

    Columbus plays TFC, obviously a W by Toronto would be excellent, but i'll not hold my breath... Hopefully a draw.

    Impact vs DC is crucial of course

    most importantly we hope that the Revs beat Columbus, TFC beats houston and KC and NY draw. (if not I prefer a W by KC)


    exciting! I love a good playoff chase, especially the futile ones ;)
     
  12. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Not certain, But the methods are either 50/50 or weighted.

    I think it means that future results are either calculated 50/50, or are weighted against past performance.

    Given our weak start, I think this best explains the discrepancy.Plus given our recent, and not fluke-y, performance, I think 50/50 is a better measure.
     
  13. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Sticking with 50/50, here are the relevant potential runs we could have and be sucessful, per http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/Impact2.html

    Notice the drastic decline if we get 49 points. 4-2-1 is reasonable the worst record we can get and still make it.

    I'll try posting these every week.
    [​IMG]
     
    Philip Marlowe repped this.
  14. HarryMontreal

    HarryMontreal New Member

    Dec 22, 2011
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    We need to win our remaining 3 home games and split the 4 road games.

    5-2 to finish would give us 51 points and a good shot at the playoffs.
     
  15. Philip Marlowe

    Philip Marlowe New Member

    Aug 9, 2012
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    I dont want to look like a Debbie Downer but Im having real problems believing in the Impact reaching the playoffs, the game played gap with the other teams is depressing. Montreal would have to do real great, and Colombus, D.C and Chicago would have to suck big time for the rest of the season.... Pretty slim chances, no?
     
  16. mtlve

    mtlve Member

    Dec 5, 2011
    Montreal
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    yes, very slim chances..but it still is possible.

    Have some faith!!lol
     
  17. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Well, I wouldn't bet a farm on it. ;)
     
  18. Philip Marlowe

    Philip Marlowe New Member

    Aug 9, 2012
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Dammit, DC United and Colombus won tonight :(
     
  19. (De La)Redstriker06

    May 3, 2003
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Palestine
    Looking at the standings it seems like a daunting task but I still think it's a possibility. There's a really good vibe around this team right now and I am confident that they'll pick up points at home- whether they can replicate that on the road remains to be seen. The next three games are crucial- DC at home is a must win and I think we'll have to pick up at least one win on the road against Chicago/Columbus.
     
  20. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Columbus played TFC .. that win doesn't mean a whole lot as to their future prospects. I'm not sure what to make of CLB .. Chicago lost .. Dero is back, and DC has an extra game in hand so I think either DC, Chicago or Houston we have to catch. And we play them all, two of them away. The next 3 games will decide if we are serious or not. 2 of 3 is ok. Ideally those will be DC and CHI, as they are ahead, but really these are three 6 pt games. If we lay 2 eggs on the road, then forget it..

    CHI went 7-1-2 in their last 10 before losing to DC last night .. big streaks are possible.
     
  21. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    There'll be two weeks between the CLB and the CHI game .. probably have Nesta for the CHI game .. assuming he didn't come here to play two games and retire .. Although like I said when he first arrived--he's injury-prone his whole career--I have to wonder about how he was used .. they pretty much had him play 90 minutes from the start .. maybe they should have used him a little more cautiously..
     
  22. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think the best way to look at it for now is to say "our goal is to be 3rd"

    All 3 of those teams are in our sights, especially since they have less games in hand.
     
  23. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Ugh, great game for us, but the OOT scoreboard is not looking good. Revs and TFC have got to step it up.
     
  24. claw hammer

    claw hammer Member

    Jun 2, 2010
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Revs tied it late, but Columbus scored again.. damn .. They don't look very good, beating NE in the last minutes at home. Painful listening to the idiot CLB announcers "a new era has begun"--huh? Beat NE at home, and it's a new era? WTF. They got another weakling, Philly. Then we play them, the 3rd game for them in a week. Looks like a very big game ... these next two road games will either put us into the mix really, or put us out of it..
     
  25. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Tfc came through with the draw though. Pulls Houston back a bit.

    Wouldn't it be funny if both mtl and the crew made it in. League would go wild
     

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