Overview concepts: *Home teams win playoff games. This percentage over time will even increase slightly as more teams are added to MLS as playoff teams will be more closely competitive AND of a higher quality. *Playoffs are different. The effort required is greater. The pace is higher for longer. The crowds are more hyped. The value of the home field is greater in places like CHI where it will be a sellout and colorful. This is so because when you have no oxygen left sometimes hearing the 20K yelling is enough to get you from A to B. Having heart is easier at home. *Streaking teams matter more than standings position. *#1 seeds don't automatically win. 8 of 22 times the #1 or #2 seed has failed to reach the MLS Cup Final. In only 3 years have both of the top seeds survived. THU: Chicago vs. DC United 2.67 l 3.30 l 2.75 odds Team Computer Chance - Odds Chance - Value Chicago 65.34% 37.45% 42.68% $2.670 DC United 20.27% 36.36% -79.38% $2.750 Draw 14.39% 30.30% -110.59% $3.300 CHICAGO FIRE - OUT: DF Jeff Curtin (R groin strain); DOUBTFUL: MF Justin Mapp (R ankle sprain); QUESTIONABLE: DF Ivan Guerrero (L ankle sprain) ... D.C. UNITED - OUT: MF Josh Gros (wrist surgery); PROBABLE: FW Jaime Moreno (ankle), FW Luciano Emilio (ankle) Chicago has a chance in this game they do not posess in the series. DC has injury questions up front, but at least one of the two will be fit enough to play. DC is also 1-0-2 v CHI this year. The final game with Blanco was a tie where Pickens threw one into his own net and Chicago flat dominated at RFK. Fire are also unbeaten in 8 games. DC has just 1 win in 5. I can't bet DC in this one as there is too much to say they will not win. Draw seems likely but still has no value. The computer says bet CHI and take your chances as it's the only value on the board. I think with Blanco at home there is no reason to take anything but Chicago. If you neeed yet another cue, CHI lost their last home game to NE. CHI has never lost 2 consecutive home playoff games. A reasonable Plan B would be to take an Asian with CHI to either win or tie. CHI@2.67 More on the others as the Previews come up. SAT: New York vs. New England 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.50 odds Team Computer Chance - Odds Chance - Value New York 75.87% 45.45% 40.09% $2.200 New England 16.92% 28.57% -68.86% $3.500 Draw 7.21% 30.77% -326.75% $3.250 Dallas vs. Houston 3.03 l 3.15 l 2.40 odds Team Computer Chance - Odds Chance - Value Dallas 64.83% 33.00% 49.09% $3.030 Houston 20.80% 41.67% -100.29% $2.400 Draw 14.37% 31.75% -120.89% $3.150 Houston is 3-0-1 v DAL this season. Kansas City vs. Chivas 2.80 l 3.15 l 2.50 Team Computer Chance - Odds Chance - Value Kansas City 49.96% 35.71% 28.51% $2.800 Chivas 42.78% 40.00% 6.51% $2.500 Draw 7.26% 31.75% -337.34% $3.150 Don't put money on Chivas, whatever you do. More later or check the KC Board if you can't wait.
Sry ev, I got busy with volleyball and chose drinking over posting pre-game. I would have gone with either NE or DRAW (I never really decided which is why I blew it off until later), Houston, and of course, KC. The logic being what I posted on KC boards, Houston was 3-0-1 v Dallas, and NY hadn't beaten NE as yet, but was playing a playoff game at home and both teams have been shaky of late. If it as a draw, I really thought it would be of the 2-2 variety. Postmortem: Game 1 playoff draws in the 2v3 series are easy to explain. Dallas beating Houston with Ching playing :90 and DeRo isn't. No clue there. Chivas not having an actual forward on the field and playing with emphasis on defending equals an L. No shock there. KC remains unbeaten at Arrowhead in the playoffs since 1997 (9-0-1). If you believe all the idiots that had Chivas in a blowout, that's your own fault.