United will be in, no doubt about it. If you're superstitious, that's your problem. But if it will help, if they don't get in, I will give whoever is interested the opportunity to punch me directly in the face (just watch the teeth, dental work is expensive). There are 12 games left, and two teams with a realistic chance of catching United: Montreal and Columbus. Montreal is only 3 points back, but has played four more games. Columbus has one game in hand, but are 8 points back. Also, they are Columbus. One more thing, United gets them at home in the penultimate game of the season. It would be an epic collapse by United and an inspired surge from those two to keep United out. Not going to happen. To put it in perspective, there is a much better chance, numbers wise, of winning the East than there is of United missing the playoffs. I'm piling on because I want it to be clear that if United does miss out, it isn't my fault, but the players, coaches, etc. who have failed so completely miserably that there will need to be a massive purge. Again. Anyway, in light of that, what does United need to do in this stretch run to position itself to be the best possible team they can be come playoff time? My 2 cents: -See what a backline without McDonald looks like. Korb has been forced to play, which is only a good thing, imo. But what about Dudar-Jakovic? I know McDonald has his fans, and that's cool, he's been there when others haven't been able to, that's important. But it is my strong opinion he is often loses his mark and his struggles with possession are well documented. Can Dudar-Jakovic be worse? Don't know, I would like to find out. -Try playing with one forward. Hear me out. Even when United is winning, how much of that can be contributed to excellent midfield play and terrific teamwork between two forwards. United hasn't been able to form a partnership with good chemistry all year long. Probably because of the incessant rotation, or it's a square peg-round hole situation with the personnel, or United hasn't formed an identity to build around. Try shoring up the midfield with another center mid and play to your strengths: attacking from wide positions. Not just the middies, but the wing backs as well. That extra midfielder can fill that open position if the wing back gets caught upfield. Fortify the weak spots, excentuate the strengths. -Let that one forward be Hamdi Salihi. He's your DP. He has to be fresh. Let's give him a prolonged run where all we need him to do is what he does best. Create space with his runs and scores some ugly goals. It doesn't need to be his job to get in behind, that should come from the wings. If United is expecting him to win a lot of aerial battles from long balls out of the back, I throw up my hands and despair. You bought him, you (theoretically) know what he's about, now see if he can do it. Anybody else?
I'll take you up on your offer if DCU doesn't make it. Not because I believe you've cursed some sort of soccer gods but because I'll need a constructive way to direct my anger at DCU missing out again.
sitruc I will continue to clench my fist and raise it to the heavens in defiance of the soccer gods, may they crush my spirit and foolhardy ways.
As most of you know, I look at these numbers every year. We probably need a mere 9 points out of 12 games to have a shot at the playoffs. That's a pretty damn low bar and we will almost certainly get more than 9 points out of our last 12 games. In fact, we should end the season with over 50 points. So we'll make the playoffs. What then? That's where this team is very likely going to run headlong into a buzz saw. We've gotten the bulk of our points by beating bad teams. There won't be any bad teams in the playoffs this year.
Very true. However, speaking of low bars, just getting in the playoffs will feel like a victory to me, and a successful season. Four years without can really diminish expectations. Yes, I do expect a one and done type deal, but I'm okay with that for this year.
Dammit!! No woofing!! But on that note, I want Montreal to get in the playoffs because I want to road trip back up there again.
Pretty sure United have played two more games than Columbus. The sky will start falling the next time United slip up at home.
What I don't get is, we signed Salihi, the fee was undisclosed but reports from Austria suggesting it was around the $800,000 dollar mark. He is the second highest earner in our team and in the top 20 earners in the MLS. He has the best goalscoring record throughout his career than anybody in the league. He even has a better goal to game ratio than Robbie Keane or Donavon. Yet we prefer to start players like Long Tan or Santos, who with all due respect are good players but nowhere near his quality. Tan has only score something like what 8 goals his whole career? Really? He hasn't had more than 2 consecutive starts all season. He's been benched 8 times and has only ever twice I think played a full 90. We need to start utilizing this asset and perhaps start building a team around him and that can supply him him, because that's all he needs. He's a very smart player and can beat and offside trap really easily. San Jose has done something similar with Wondolowski and now he's top scorer and they are top of their conference. Watch this video and you'll see how Rapid Vienna played him, alone up front and it reaped the rewards, a poacher doesn't really work well with a partner as they aren't the passing type. They'd rather be fed from behind. It's time we had a prolific goalscorer, every successful team has one. If you go to 1:18 see how much of an intelligent player he really is.
I thought Salihi didn't travel due to a stomach bug at KC. That doesn't explain the other recent omissions, but this past one yes maybe he would have played.
I'm not sure that the playoffs are good enough. Top 3 guarantees you at least a home and away while 4th and 5th square off in a winner take all, 90 minutes of hell slugfest. I doubt the loser of that game is going to feel like they had a successful season.
And 4th gets you a one off home game. I'd be okay with that if that's where we end up. Coming 5th would be a hill too high to climb for this team I think. Although winning that 4-5 matchup would at least give the team a home game vs. the #1 seed. Anyway, its a little early to talk about playoffs. If we win a couple games and Columbus loses a couple, then we can be a little more sure.
Ah, but there might be good teams who play bad. I'll take my chances. Are you saying our magic number with Columbus is 9? Or might be?
That would assume they get less than 18 points from 13 games. Not an assumption I'd like to base my playoff hopes on. We should assume we need 12-15 from our last 12 games. Geez, if we can't get 4 wins from our 6 home games, we don't deserve the playoffs. Its not like we are playing great teams every week. We still have a lot of games vs. non-playoff teams.
I'm only saying the likely playoff cutoff is going to be around 45 points -- plus or minus a couple points. More likely plus than minus. So if you're below 45, probably not going to make it. If you're above, decent chance.
Roger that, I wasn't sure if you had tried to compute anything yet. I glanced at the standings today I see Columbus has a ton of games to play, so yeah, no magic number worth talking about just yet.
Columbus' next two games (they have two in hand over United, I stand corrected) are at home against LA and in Houston. Zero points is a real possibility. However, after that, it looks like they have one of the 'easier' schedules left. They host Toronto twice, home and away with NE, host Chivas, host Montreal, and home and away with Philly. The 'tougher' games are away to NY, KC, Chicago and DC. That's their remaining games. No west coast trip. They are 8 points back. If they get points out of their next two, it could get interesting, and I may have to think about my relocation. But if United can take care of their home games, they will be fine. 4 of 6 should do it, with some scattered points on the road.
This. A big points haul (9 or 10+) from their next 4 games (PHI, CHI, @MTL, NY) and there's a chance DC could have the best PPG average in the East at the end of August (admittedly still with 8 games to play, and 5 of those on the road). The only thing that is good enough will be hosting and winning MLS Cup. So in addition to finishing in the top5 (or ideally top3 or better) in the East, United also wants to position itself ahead of as many of the top5 Western teams as possible, so when United storms through the Eastern Conference post-season, they'll have the requisite points from the regular season to be awarded the hosting duties for MLS Cup (and yes, that will likely require some upsets in the Western post-season bracket). See you at RFK in December.
Oh my word, the sky is sooooooooooooooooooooo beautiful here man, do you see that? Wow. Totally wow. So beautiful. I love you, man.
1) More Salihi - IMO he's our best forward, and FWIW he's among the leaders in the Castrol index. I don't think it's an issue of Salihi vs. Santos, because the two play different styles and I would actually like to see them paired up for a match or two. (Salihi needs to partner up with someone who will drop back and receive the ball, so either Santos, DeRo, or even Bosko) 2) Narrower wide mids (our diamond is leaving too much space in the middle) 3) I'm excited/curious to see if Russell is a different player when he returns from injury. Korb is good depth, but isn't good enough yet to be a starter on a legitimate contender. 4) I'd like to see more of Najar at RB, especially if we have our outside mids play a little narrower. On paper that would open up tons of space for Najar to attack 5) If at any point a shakeup is badly needed, I wouldn't be opposed to trying out a 3-5-2 (as many others have suggested). On paper, this formation suits our personnel extremely well, as Woolard, BMac, Dudar and Jakovic (Russell can serve as depth) are all very capable CBs and we have a good core of wingers that can put in the defensive work in Najar, DeLeon, Cruz and Neal.
But to date in 2012, the East has been surprisingly strong (and a bit top to middle heavy on a PPG analysis, relative to historical trends and the Western table currently). FWIW, the current Eastern Conf 6th place team by PPG (CLB) is averaging 1.4 PPG. Over 34 games, should they keep that up, that will be 47.6 (or 47 or 48 points) -- so that "45 points" projected plateau for the playoffs may be understating it (somewhat significantly).
I agree. I think the problem we keep having is that Dero and Boskovic (the guys with the ball) naturally (probably not intentionally) look for "their guy", meaning Dero > Santos and Boskovic > Salihi. We've rarely had Salihi and Boskovic on the field at the same time, and also rarely had Boskovic and Dero on the field at the same time for that matter. If we could somehow get all four on the field along with Pontius, we'd have more than enough skill and striking talent to score goals. But we are going to be out of shape with those players and just Kitchen out there. Disagree. Though I agree there are some problems in the middle with the diamond, I don't think that's the right solution. Not being wide enough has been our problem for years now. Having some width is what eased many of our former problems. Yet neither was David Vaudreil in my opinion. I don't think any of these guys, except maybe Dudar or Jakovic has the head to play 3 back, and I'm certain none of them has the speed. Totally disagree.
After the 1997 season, David Vaudreil was Soccer America's first choice left back in their MLS best eleven (or whatever they called it). I remember this now because it really surprised me at the time. asitis