Playoffs and MLS Cup Discussion

Discussion in 'LA Galaxy' started by skydog, Oct 27, 2014.

  1. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Thought it would be good to have our own local thread for discussing the playoffs and MLS Cup. I'll start it off noting the current betting odds for winning the MLS Cup as given by BET365:

    LAG 4/1
    DCU 5/1
    SEA 5.5/1
    NER 7/1
    CLB 8/1
    RSL 8/1
    FCD 10/1
    NYRB 11/1
    SKC 14/1
    VAN 18/1

    My random thoughts:

    The experts still rate LA over SEA as they should!

    My have the mighty have fallen - SKC at 14/1! I know they had a tough season but I still think they have to be better than 7% to win.

    Nice job by Berhalter rounding CLB into shape - ending the season an eight game streak with 6 wins and
    only 1 loss. Unfortunately for them they start with NER, a tough out.
     
  2. 100fyers

    100fyers Member+

    Aug 30, 2010
    SoCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This a very lucid and well thought out post skydog good job! My thoughts.

    WE WIN THE CUP or it's a failed season. Simple as that we are all about titles and anything less is by our standards unacceptable.
     
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  3. Berks

    Berks Member+

    Dec 22, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    StillKickin and TrickHog repped this.
  4. ragbone

    ragbone Member+

    Sep 2, 2005
    Santo Tomas, Batangas, Philippines.
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    While I agree that Galaxy should be considered favorites it should be noted that betting odd are essentially reflective of the money actually being wagered on the proposition. That's how bookies discourage bets on a team if there is to much action on that team. It's how they attempt to mitigate risk.
     
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  5. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    #5 skydog, Oct 28, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2014
    That is mostly true - but bookies will occasionally stray from a balanced book if they have high confidence that the "true" line is different from the public's perception and the action isn't too big. That rarely happens though because the "collective wisdom" of bettors and the resulting lines and odds tend to be eerily accurate.

    OTOH MLS isn't a heavily researched sport so I'm sure there is a bit less accuracy in setting the correct odds compared to the major sports. That would mean more of a possibility for team popularity to pull the lines away from "true" odds but probably only a tiny bit. I wouldn't count on it though.
     
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  6. The Cadaver

    The Cadaver It's very quiet here.

    Oct 24, 2000
    La Cañada, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How much betting is there on MLS games? Enough to really move the initial odds? I have a general impression that there is not much action on MLS at the legal sports books and I have no idea if there is an underground book on these games.
     
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  7. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Im sure its a mere pittance compared to other sports. But the major books like fivedimes.com, Bovada, Betfair, etc. all take MLS bets.
     
  8. Dr.Phil

    Dr.Phil Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Winner of Revs vs Crew will come out of the East
     
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  9. Berks

    Berks Member+

    Dec 22, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  10. Berks

    Berks Member+

    Dec 22, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. Beakmon FC

    Beakmon FC Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Jan 10, 2002
    The OC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A couple of the SI writers pick NE winning the cup on the road. I have a tough time seeing the Revs going into StubHub or Century Link and pulling off a win.
     
  12. dashiel

    dashiel Member+

    Jul 15, 2000
    orange county
    I’m quite interested to see what the surprise of the post-season will be.
     
  13. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Alan Gordon scoring the game-winning goal in MLS Cup 2014…?
     
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  14. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Per Projections by Regular Season Series:
    • SEA are projected to be KO in Conference Semi-final,
    • DCU are projected to make the Final, while
    • LAG are projected to win the Cup! :p
     
  15. dashiel

    dashiel Member+

    Jul 15, 2000
    orange county
    I forgot, there’s a Euro Qualifier mid-playoffs if we make it that far. Chance for Keane to get injured/fatigued. MLS’ scheduling embarrasses itself once again.
     
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  16. Topper

    Topper BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 19, 1999
    SoCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And they will all be projectile vomiting in San Jose! :D :D

    The Crew vs NE will be entertaining, I want to see Seattle's dreams crushed, but most of all I want to see LA vs DC in Victoria Street, and us wearing black...... and LD holding the Cup over his head.
     
  17. dashiel

    dashiel Member+

    Jul 15, 2000
    orange county
    You know what would be an absolute knife twister. If we met Seattle in the conference finals and tied 2-2 at home and 1-1 away allowing Seattle to advance on road goals. IOW
    Now would a single Cup final win over D.C. that gave LA the definitive lead in greatest MLS team of all time exorcise the demon of two Cup final loses, or do we need to thump them once more?
     
  18. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes. And yes.

    :)
     
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  19. 100fyers

    100fyers Member+

    Aug 30, 2010
    SoCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm sorry but someone in Ireland needs to step up besides Keane, He won't play forever and I can't believe the striker depth is so thin for them. We need him in the playoffs and that should be the priority, If memory serves me I seem to recall Beckham skipped either a Euro or World cup qualifier back in the day. I realize Keane means more to Ireland than becks to England but just the same he was a DP and he was here for the playoffs. Now if Keane decides he wants to go than I can't begrudge him that choice, It will piss me off but I'll understand. We better beat FakeSaltLake though!
     
  20. Berks

    Berks Member+

    Dec 22, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What a HORRIFIC call by Geiger tonight. Good god.

    If I were the Whitecaps I would be IRATE. They absolutely got screwed.
     
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  21. The Cadaver

    The Cadaver It's very quiet here.

    Oct 24, 2000
    La Cañada, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And the scary part of this is, it is generally conceded that Geiger is the best we have. *sigh*
     
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  22. dashiel

    dashiel Member+

    Jul 15, 2000
    orange county
    It’s why in theory a season comprised of home-home to determine the league champions is a better way to decide a championship; the hard edges of those terrible calls are softened over 30+ games. Not to say LA hasn’t benefited from some terrible decisions in the playoffs (and were the victims of some terrible non-calls – yes, still mad about 1999)
     
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  23. kaburu

    kaburu Member+

    Jul 12, 2009
    los angeles
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  24. Dr.Phil

    Dr.Phil Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it was a penalty. The Whitecap player botched the play. Played the ball with his arm in the box. Penalty
     
  25. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    It was close but I agree the ref shouldn't call it. It was obviously 100% unintentional, the arm was close to the body, and it was ball to arm, and it was a playoff deciding call toward the end of the game. Geiger is not having a good series of games.

    Also the player made a big mistake in his reaction after the ball hit his arm - he should never have looked guiltily toward the ref or hesitated in his play. That just brings attention to the issue and makes it easier for the ref to make the call. Much better to just keep playing like nothing happened.
     
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