Playoff Chances

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by futbolpaul, Oct 18, 2009.

  1. futbolpaul

    futbolpaul New Member

    Jul 5, 2003
    Lakewood, OH
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With this coming up - I really like United's playoff chances:
    Toronto FC at NY Red Bulls - last home game at the end of one of the worst seasons in MLS history.

    NE Revolution at Columbus Crew - Crew wanting to head into their repeat effort with a strong A-squad match.

    DC United at KC Wizards - bluntly, DC has got to want it more ... KC is the 3rd worst team in points this year.
    Hell, we just beat the Crew .. let's hit a Very Late season groove... VAMOS UNITED
     
  2. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    does anybody understand the tie break rule??

    right now we have 4 way ties with DCU, NER, FCD, TFC.
    why is the standing like that right now?? = http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/index.jsp?standings=playoff.

    there's the 'TEAM-STANDINGS TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES' on that webpage under the standing, but I don't get it.
     
  3. Black.White&Red

    Sep 9, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    DC United has to win in KC and they do have the easiest opponent, so our chances our better than some other teams.
     
  4. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    according to the standing DCU is behind TFC and NER although we have same points due to tie breaker.

    If 2 out of the 3 teams (TFC, NER, Corolado) win in the next game, we are out no matter what we do in the next game.

    I don't understand the tie breaking thing.

    Right now we have 4 way ties.
    Why we are ahead of FCD but behind TFC and NER???
     
  5. greekchampion04

    greekchampion04 Member+

    Apr 2, 2006
    Richmond, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    head to head is the first tie breaker... we have it over the burn but not NE or TFC
     
  6. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic

    what if Dallas is over NER on head-to-head??
     
  7. greekchampion04

    greekchampion04 Member+

    Apr 2, 2006
    Richmond, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    why does it matter? NE v DAL tiebreakers have nothing to do with us making the playoffs.
     
  8. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    ok, I think I understood the whole tie breaking business in other forum...

    Anyways, I guess these should happen.

    1. DCU wins
    2. No more than one win out of these 3 teams, TFC, NER, and Corolado.
    (Two of the teams should do tie or less)

    Edit: oh wait... do we win over Chicago for tie breaker???
    I think this tie breaking rule is stupid...

    Anyways again, 1 and 2 still hold no matter what happens to Chicago.
     
  9. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    shit looks like even DCU site is confused on the playoff standing due to the tie breaker shit...
    www.dcunited.com

    this whole playoff berth and tie breaker shit is another stupid MLS shit.

    When we have enough number of clubs in each conference(10 or 12) we should get rid of the wildcard shit.

    balanced shedule in each conference and just total goal differential for tie breaking.
     
  10. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Couldn't agree more, the whole two conference thing and the TB rule is crap.

    Basically, it is:

    A) Two teams tied =
    1) Head to head points in the games between the teams.
    2) Overall GD
    3) Overall Goals Scored

    B) Three (or more) teams Tied
    1) PPG in head to head games between all the tied teams
    2) Overall GD
    3) Overall goals scored.

    There are three tricky things:

    First, what to do when a team advances. If a team advances on step one, then either revert to the 2 team rules if there are only two teams left, or run the 3 team again using the same formula (makes sense).

    However, if there are three teams tied, and two teams are tied on PPG (and the third team lags behind) one DOESN'T GO TO HEAD TO HEAD to break the tie among the two tied teams, one instead proceeds on to GD (though only among the two teams with the highest PPG). In effect, the third team is out (for now) and you use the three team tie-breaker to break the two team tie. Afterwards, start over at the appropriate step one with all the remaining teams (and the third team is back in the pot).

    This makes no sense to me (the third team should be out and the top two on head to head).

    Second, because we use head to head, instead of GD, who is ahead on PPG will jump around depending on the teams involved.

    Third, remember to figure out who the East #2 is first, then go to any remaining TB's for the wildcards. A five way on 42 is possible, and there are only 3 spots left.

    Go to MLS N&A, they should have it figured out soon, if not arleady.

    Anyway, good win over us, I was just curious what kind of team you guys were going to run out vs. Toluca this week? Does it depend on how the tie-breakers go, or are you going to save the big guns for KC?
     
  11. Marco10

    Marco10 Member+

    Sep 9, 2002
    How's this for fun. If the Fire win or tie, DC is almost certainly out even if they win because they don't win any of the tiebreaker scenarios unless Dallas is the only other team to make it to 42. Any other combination of teams at 42 and DC loses out on the first tie breaker (head to head) to everyone except Dallas. Even if mulitple teams can advance, DC still loses out unless Dallas is the only team left to break a tie with.

    HOWEVER, if the Fire lose and DC makes it to 42, then DC is almost certainly in due to the 7 points we stole from the Fire this season. That gives us more points than any other team in the tiebreaker for any combination of teams at 42. It would also help if Dallas won as that boosts our chances if there's a situation for mulitple teams to advance.

    So, bottom line. DC must win and Chicago lose. That scenario has the greatest chances for DC to advance. So, we'll know Thursday night how much of a chance we have to make the playoffs. Go Chivas!

    As for the Toluca match, I believe Talon was on the flight down there with his cleats, that answer your question?
     
  12. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Kingston Stockade
    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    Muddle League Soccer.

    Does the guaranteed second-place in the conference spot get decided by the same math that decides playoff spots? If it is, then Chicago is essentially out of the playoffs if they lose, since one of the teams on 39 points will likely win this weekend? If DC were to win, then they would go in as Second Place team since they own that tiebreaker? Right?
     
  13. dcchelseafc

    dcchelseafc Moderator
    Staff Member

    DC United
    Sep 2, 2005
    Naptown
    Club:
    DC United
    cant we still end up in 2nd in the conference?
    and could there be 6 teams from the west moving on also if
    New England to lose at Columbus.
    Real Salt Lake beats Colorado.
    FC Dallas draws Seattle.
    chicago loses at chivas
    toronto loses to NY

    mmmmmmmm
     
  14. owendylan

    owendylan Member

    May 30, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    How do we have the easiest opponent? Sure KC is pretty bad but TOR is playing the Red Bulls who are the worst team in the league and one of the worse in MLS history. Toronto has the closest to a sure thing as there is.
     
  15. ncguy

    ncguy New Member

    Jan 28, 2002
    NC
    Bottom line 88% chance we're in if we win, 7% if we tie, we're out if we lose.
     
  16. Theopisa

    Theopisa Member+

    Pisa Sporting Club
    Italy
    Oct 7, 2008
    Venezia
    Club:
    Pisa Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    This is what MLS website says:

    " In the event that two teams finish the regular season with an equal number of points, the following system will be used to break the tie: 1) The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition)"



    Then there are all the other bananas such as goal difference etc., but let's concentrate on this one: if we end with the same points of TFC, NE, FCD, we are out, because if you take all the points that these teams made against each other (like if it was a mini-championship) you have:



    TFC 9

    NE 8

    FCD 8

    DCU 6



    So, regardless of the fact that we have to win, and given that most likely Chicago will go through and that TFC will probably win in NY (or at least I expect it), we have to hope that:

    1) NE does not win in C'bus
    2) FCD does not win in Seattle

    3) RSL beats or draws Colorado



    These three results are not completely irrealistic. In this case we would finish 7/8th team tie with Toronto and we would qualify.
     
  17. Black.White&Red

    Sep 9, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    I stand corrected.
     
  18. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    what are these "big guns" you speak of on DC's roster?

    if United is to get into the MLS playoffs (and/or advance in the CCL) it will be through ugly and hard-working results of a desperate (old/banged-up) team that is scrapping this week.

    it likely won't be via beautiful soccer. our best weapon (sadly) for the next two matches may indeed be Steve Cronin hoping to play well-enough to sign an MLS contract this off-season.
     
  19. Diceson

    Diceson Member

    Dec 21, 1999
    Yes
    Yes

    Even RSL has a shot at the playoffs going into the last weekend.

    The only complaint at this point is that the final games of the season should all be played on the same day and start at the same time.
     
  20. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    1) If United loses at KC, it will not qualify for the playoffs.

    2) If United draws at KC, it would need at least two of the following results to occur:

    * New England to lose at Columbus.
    * Toronto FC to lose at New York.
    * Real Salt Lake to draw or lose vs. Colorado.
    * FC Dallas to draw or lose at Seattle.


    3) If United wins at KC, the following could happen...

    * FC Dallas could win, draw or lose and have no effect.

    ... and D.C. would need two of the following to occur

    * Chicago to lose vs. Chivas USA.
    * Colorado to draw or lose at Real Salt Lake.
    * New England to draw or lose at Columbus.
    * Toronto FC to draw or lose New York.
     
  21. dcchelseafc

    dcchelseafc Moderator
    Staff Member

    DC United
    Sep 2, 2005
    Naptown
    Club:
    DC United
    so if 6 teams make it in from the west and its us and columbus, how will they seed it?
     
  22. fatbastard

    fatbastard Member+

    Aug 1, 2003
    Lincoln (ish), Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    you forgot to mention you copied this entire thing from BehindTheBadge.com ;)
     
  23. DCU1996

    DCU1996 Member

    Jun 3, 2002
    N. VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Korea Republic
    the two West teams moved to East are lower seeded.

    they can be Eastern Conference Champion!!! What a joke.
     
  24. fatbastard

    fatbastard Member+

    Aug 1, 2003
    Lincoln (ish), Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    just like New Jersey was Western Conference Champion last year, winning the only trophy we do not have.....well, because we should not be eligible for it .....
     
  25. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I claim nothing. ;)
     

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