I am trying to figure what were the past pre-tournament favorites and how they fared in the World Cup. I know some but I'd like to know the others. I have put question marks on the doubts I have. I want to see how many times did the pre-tournament favorites actually win it. 2006 - Brazil (QF) 2002 - France, Argentina (both 1st round) 1998 - Brazil (2nd) 1994 - Honestly I don't remember any ... does Colombia count ? 1990 - Italy ??? 1986 - France (SF) ??? 1982 - Brazil (2nd round) 1978 - ??? 1974 - Germany (winners), any others ? 1970 - England (QF) ??? 1966 - Brazil (1st round), England (winners) ??? 1962 - Brazil (winners), any others ? 1958 - ??? 1954 - Hungary (2nd) 1950 - Brazil (2nd), ??? 1938 - ??? 1934 - ??? 1930 - Uruguay (winners)
In 1994 Brazil and Argentina were favourites. Spain also, but not for me. In 1990 Netherlands was another favourite.
In 94 nobody in Brazil considered our team favorites. Tough WCQ campaign with our first defeat ever and qualification only guaranteed in the last game. Argentina on the other hand lost to Colombia 5 x 0 at home and had to qualify by playing Australia (granted WCQ back then was a different format that allowed for less hiccups). They did play well once the WC started until Maradona was caught. I believe you are right about Netherlands in 90.
you might add Scotland to WC 1978. They had great players in Dalglish and souness. I have a german preview magazine on that World Cup and a lot of the experts name them as favorites.
1978 prediction by Beckenbauer 1. Argentina 2. Brazil Outsider: Netherlands Prediction by Paulo Cesar 1. Brazil Prediction by Georg Ericksen 1. West-Germany 2. Netherlands 3. Argentina Tomaszwewski 1. West-Germany 2. Netherlands 3. Argentina/Brazil Source: Dutch Newspaper I've here from 1978
I would imagine Germany were too correct ? Euro champs and playing at home ? That would mean only 3 times a real favorite (let's say at least one of two pre-tournament favorites) have gone on to win a World Cup: 30, 62, and 74. Just trying to gauge Brazil and Spain's chances coming up.
I still have a copy the '78 World Cup preview issue from an old American 'magazine' called Soccer Digest and they listed these "early odds" (roughly 3-4 months before the tournament began): 3-1 West Germany 7-2 Brazil 5-1 Argentina 6-1 Holland, Italy, Scotland 10-1 Hungary, France 12-1 Poland, Spain 25-1 Austria, Sweden 40-1 Mexico, Peru 100-1 Iran 200-1 Tunisia The way the 1982 tournament was structured, the general consensus was that the semifinals would feature: -- one all-South American of Brazil v Argentina -- the other all-European with West Germany v Spain West Germany and Brazil were to reach the final with conventional wisdom giving it to the Germans since the tournament was on European soil. USSR was the big dark horse expected to shock should one of the favorites stumbled, and many felt had New Zealand been in any other group (Group F was very much the 'Group of Death') they may have had a shot to advance to the second round. I'll have to dig out old copies of Soccer America to find out the favorites for '86.
Yeah, so that shows that the Brazilian fans don't have idea about football Come on, here everybody at that time were thinking that a squad with ROMARIO, BEBETO, CAFÚ, ALDAIR, MARCIO SANTOS, BRANCO, DUNGA, MAZINHO, Mauro Silva, Jorginho, etc etc was totally favourite.
Show's how much you know about what was going on ... - Cafu was a sub and just a promise (only played in the final because of Jorginho's injury) - Although Aldair and Marcio Santos were already playing their trade in Europe, they only got called because Mozer, Ricardo Rocha, and Ricardo Gomes got hurt. - Branco was coming back from injury and wasn't the starter. Leonardo was the starter and you should know what happened to him. - Dunga was the symbol of what we didn't want in the team. He made his name in that World Cup. - Mazinho ... good player ... not a crack. - Mauro Silva was good ... but a defensive player. - Jorginho was indeed excellent. - Romario only came into the team in the last WCQ game. Nobody knew how he was going to fit in although everyone had faith in him. Brazil had to wait until the last game to qualify. We lost our first qualifier game ever. The team was hardworking but the midfield was not creative. They were criticized for doing too many side passes.
I felt the WC 1994 was between Brazil and Italy. In the US, they kept talking about the "Dream Team" of Romario and Bebeto. Italy was also a favorite due to AC Milan destroying Barcelona in the EC and Baggio. Colombia was talked about as a darkhorse, but that was based upon a single game. West Germany, the host and the European champion, must be the favorite. I assumed Sweden was the favorite in 1958 due to being the host and that forward line(althrough aging). Italy must be the favorite for 1934 and/or 1938. They were the host in 1934. They had a good team and they absorbed a few Argentinian players.
hmmm yeah, a 24 years old "promise", Libertadores Cup Champion in 1992 y 1993, and Intercontinental Cup Champion World Champion in 92 and 93 with Sao Paulo FC (against Barcelona and Milan). What a "just a promise"! Cafú was a crack since a couple of years before the WC, at least. He was way better than the starter Jorginho IMO. For sure Aldair and Marcio Santos were better than Ricardo Gomes at least. Both were cracks really. Of course we all know what happened to Leonardo. And that was a good thing for Brazil, because Branco was better than him. Every great team needs a player like Dunga, not brilliant, but a "worker" on the field. a VERY GOOD player I'd say. I agree with you. Anyway, the squads need players like Dunga and Mauro Silva. You can't play with 11 "Pelés" nor 11 "Maradonas". Yes. He was the "killer" of the box. One of the best strikers that I've ever seen. Yes, a NORMAL thing in a short WCQ (only 8 games). And yes again, against Bolivia, in La Paz (3.700 meters over the sea level) during the DAY as I remember (not at night like in the Cup América Final in 1997). Same that Italy, and...oh "surprise!", Brazil and Italy were the Finalists. You had a great NT, you have to admit it. Better than the rest at that time, even better than Italy, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands and Spain.
You don't get the point. Whether it was a great team or not, the perception in Brazil by most people was that we were not going to win because of the lack of creativity in the midfield. We had no Zico, no Falcao, no Socrates. Who was going to create the plays for Romario and Bebeto ? That was a serious issue. The '90 team was viewed as a major failure because they used an European system. Parreira's team was as Un-Brazilian as 90 in concept if not more. Parreira's motto was defend first ... then worry about scoring. Plus it is a fact that team did not do well in Qualifying. It was our worst campaign. We had never struggled to qualify. Today we talk about the altitude in Bolivia as a major factor. But back then, it was just considered a poor excuse as our previous teams never encountered much problems against minnows like Bolivia and Ecuador. Back then we didn't believe we needed players like Dunga and Mauro Silva ... but not only that we used less skilled players like Mazinho and Zinho as AMs. That was unheard of. Maybe in the US and other countries we were considered favorites just because we are Brazil. If you do have doubts you can go in the Brazil forum and ask this question.
very interesting topic, i always talk about it i remember in 2002 Beckenbaure said "I used to say Argentina and France are favorites, but after first round, I stopped commenting on predictions" i think in 1990 it was netherlands together with Italy. Brazil was also in the equation after their strong Copa America 1989 performance. In 82 it was Brazil and Germany. in 1974 it was Netherlands the thing in modern history, in last 15 years, players got more and more pressure of heavy schedules and a lot of games. i will add to ur post: - in 2006 Ronaldinho had his dream year with Barca winning the Champion League where he really participated in that, but had a worst world cup for him. - 2002 zizo lead RM to CL with amazing goals and performance and with his last famous volley. Then, three weeks later, he had his worst WC ever. Plus he was already injured and tired. - in 1990 I remember Basten had amazing two years, and Maradona just lead Napoli to Italian league title. You would predict that Basten is the top scorer without any issues, and maradona will be amazing. basten didn't do anything to remember at all. maradona had amazing touches, yes, but he was already half injured. this year spain and brazil are favorites, i dont disagree but, looking into spain, i doubt if they can collect their players in good shape xavi torres and ineista all are either injured, recovering from it or doubting it for me, brazil looks more fit
In the lead-up to the 1986 World Cup, I recall an article in World Soccer to the effect of "Brazil: Why are they the favorites?" The gist of the article was that Brazil were the consensus favorites but they shouldn't be. I know France was highly rated in '86 too because of their Euro win in '84, but I believe Brazil were the consensus favorites. Of course, this is all from memory, so... Jeff
Before the WC 1986, an "intelligent" machine predicted a Final between West Germany and ..... Hungary LOL!
I remembered Hungary in 1986. They had the best WCQ record in Europe, taking out Holland in the process. Thety also had a very good record leading up to the Finals. That WC Finals was my first serious WC Finals. So I looked into it seriously. I predicted Argentina to takle it and got it right, but I did not use an analysis to predic it.
Tear... I have never seen Hungary play. My parents were born there and I hope that one day I will get to see them good again. I mean, just making the World Cup would get to me to anywhere... Any tourny though would be awesome with Hungary.
Going into the 1974 world cup germany were favourites not holland...germany started out slow in the group stages while holland was on fire and at that time favouritism shifted to the dutch. Also i have an australian world cup preview magazine for the 1994 world cup which lists brazil & germany as joint favourites at 4-1 odds
INteresting how Germany are almost never considered favourites, for whatever reason... I mean, they have reached, what, 12 semifinals and 7 finals?, and have been considered favourites like 2 or 3 times.
yeah,how they do it ? many times they lack creativity and technical ability and still they manage to get far in the tournament...
That's the point. "Favorites' is very relative. Favorite for whom?... For 'insiders' (coaches, old/contemporary players etc)?... For TV & newspapers' critics?... The public in general?... And - last but not least - bookmakers?... I'd opt for the last one as the most realistic thermometer before a Cup. If we just had a written record of all the bets just one day before each Cup (or before a WC final, among other circumstances) I'm sure we'd have a realistic view of who were the real favorites before each Cup. By a simple reason: you can have sympathies for this or another nation, but you don't want to lose money. Besides, from day to day, bets can vary a lot. For instance, at the site http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvEv&id=12056471, right now Spain is leading the bets by a slight margin over Brazil & England, but we all know that up to June 11th all that can change overnight. However volatile those predictions are, they, imo, are the ones that most faithfully portray 'favoritism'. To counter criticism that those are mostly laymen's bets we shall say that their opinions are also deeply influenced by the press & experts in general. Of course Skybet is one of the many betting houses (sites) in Europe - whose results can differ considerably from North/South American, Asian or African ones. PS: That I know, besides 1950, Brazil - even in the worst years - has never been out of the first 3 places from 1958 to 2010 (even in non-South American betting houses).
1990 Germany was favourite. Italy as the home team might have been the #1 contender, but Germany and maybe Holland were also highly regarded. 1994 and 1998 we were among the favourites as well. '94 with Italy again, Brazil was actually a bit surprising at the time. 1998 Brazil was the big pre-tournament favourite, Germany as European Champion was among the prime contenders. Only in the last 10 years our teams really "lacked creativity and technical ability", from the 60s to the 90s we always had some of the worlds most gifted players in our nt.