The math maths. 5 teams below us could surpass our current point total, but since some of the teams below us play each other, there aren’t 4 teams below us that could pass us even if we lost our final 3 games. So we are guaranteed a top-4 finish. One win might win the West. Two would almost assure it. So that next road game vs Colorado will be important.
Other than LAFC just about every other result amongst the points leaders went our way. What is going to be difficult is the fact that we have a game Wednesday and then Saturday. Yes I know that your schedule is dependent on other team's schedules, its still annoying having 10 days off then 2 games in 4 days.
Colorado is reeling a bit and has a bit of injuries and just played a few days ago. We have some advantages here but everytime we play at Altitude in Colorado it seems to affect us more than most. Huge opportunity to end all the drama in the span of 4 days. A win in Colorado could even seal the deal that night as far as CCL and maybe even WC champions goes but would for sure set us up to go to our last home game on Saturday in a clinching sort of mood. I think for our team it is hugely important to host the playoff games.
Miami vs CLB starting now. Should be a high quality game, Cucho vs Messi. Two of the big 3 teams mixing it up!
Messi is sooo fking good! Miami dominated whole first half then at min 45’ Messi suddenly makes a goal out of nothing.
Beating Colorado, RSL tied results go our way for the Western Conference title. LAFC are currently beating St Louis by a single goal Joe said RSL are now eliminated from Western Title contention
Also, Cincy lost to NYCFC, who have been balling of late, and Columbus lost to Miami. We have a very real shot of finishing 2nd in the entire league.
We need 4 pts from our last two games to guarantee 1st place in the WC. That means we need at least a point at HOU.
Our next opponent, Austin, isn't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet, but for all practical purposes they are. They'd need to win their last two games, have Portland lose their last two games, and make up 18 goals in doing so. So, yeah, all that remains to be determined in the West is playoff seeding. LA teams battle for 1-2, Seattle, RSL, Colorado and Houston duke it out for 3-6 (and home field for first round), and Vancouver, Minnesota and Portland fight for 7-9 (and avoiding the play-in game). So those 9 teams still have something important to play for in their final 2 games (3 for LMAOFC and Vancouver).
Looking at LAFC vs us Its entirely possible for us to finish the season on the same # of points. For that to happen, let's see tiebreakers Chances are #1 will even out, too. #2 might be our first win. We're scoring at an insane rate but its the GD that matters. Currently we're on .52 GD per game, LAFC is on .45 GD per game, so we're more likely to finish with the better GD. If that evens out #3 easily gives us the win. Goals For per match. LAFC would have to score at least 11 more goals in 3 games than our 2. Of course if that were to happen they'd beat us on #2 anyway. #4 we are better than LAFC, fewer yellow cards and 1 less red card. 5 and 6 I haven't figured it out but I don't think it'll get that far. Long story short, other than schedule difficulty (in terms of goals), I think the tiebreakers lean in our direction anyway.
Same as Bilge, with more nerdy detail. We have 2 games left, LAFC has 3. They have 55pts, we have 61. We have 18 wins, they have 16. We lead gd by 5. There are only 3 ways LAFC can make up exactly 6 pts and tie us: by outpointing us 9-3, 7-1 or 6-0 over the remaining games. (8-2 is impossible - they can't get 8pts in 3 games.) Here are how those scenarios happen: Stretch points, their record, our record, total points, total wins. 1. 9-3: 3-0-0, 1-1-0. 64pts, 19 wins each. 2. 7-1: 2-0-1, 0-1-1. 62pts, 18 wins each. 3. 6-0: 2-0-0, 0-2-0. 61pts, 18 wins each. So in every case if we end up tied on points we will end up tied on wins and goal differential will be the deciding factor, unless their gd improves by exactly 5 more goals than ours. In theory that could happen. Example: they win 3-1,2-0,1-0 and we win 1-0 and lose 1-0. But gaining exactly 5 on gd is unlikely. So bottom line is that if we do end up tied on points, gd will almost certainly be the deciding factor. So we need to either get 4 pts and guarantee we win the WC or at least not get blown out in either of our two remaining games.
In my highly detailed analysis, since we switched to the centerback pairing of Yoshida/Garces, our goal differential has averaged +2 per game. Before that pairing, our goal differential was averaging +1 per game. So the maths are mathing and tell me that LAFC is gonna have a tough time catching up on GD....can't argue with that highly scientifical analysis.
All this maths is great, but the x-factor everyone seems to overlook is that the Gs play Houston for the last match of the season...So whatever reasoned expectations and arguments all go out the window.
LAFC awarded a very clear penalty. sucks for SKC esp since the penalty by Bouanga was piss-poor and saved easily, but an LAFC player returned fire right away and scored easily.
So it’s deceptively close on western conference champion. I think we will have to get a point at Houston. If LAFC wins out and we lose they will 100% be conference champion because the best scenario would be we are even on GD (we lose 1, they gain 2) and GD is tied. The next tie breaker after 1) points, 2) wins (would be tied), 3) GD (best case here is tied) is 4) HEAD TO HEAD (they beat us) and more likely they will win GD if they win a game or we lose a game by more than 1 so TLDR, we need a point at Houston or them to not win away at Vancouver or home vs earthquakes.