operation iraqi freedom

how about predictions?

USA 2:0 Iraq

Bush 1'
Hussein 2'

Match Abandoned 3' due to lack of players (2-0 default as per FIFA)

 

Dow +334 ... crude down $4.40 bbl

(two-day running tally).

 

It's strange, but the same thing happened at the start of the last Iraqi war as well. I think people are making bets based on percieved good spirits after a victory - it certainly has nothing to do with reality. I don't think the rally is over, although it is not going to last.

 

I find it ironic that the market has received a boost from knowing that we will soon be at war.

 

In the last few months, the market was bullish on peace. I think they are getting a boost from knowing the war will soon be over, and are hoping that it will be quick and produce lots of patriotism-induced buying like the aftermath of Sept. 11.

 

This can be explained by the removal of speculation. When there is a preceived doubt as to when or if we will go to war, it causes the markets to take a more cautious path.

Now, this should not be seen as a pro-war market, rather the light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, one could assume that the same market forces are looking for a quick end to fighting, thus if things go bad, in this case a prolonged war, the markets will not be as kind.

Now, how will this possible "long war" be defined? Many specualte that the US will surround Baghdad while they also think Saddam will hold down the fort. It is a receipe for a long war when you consider how long it will actually take to capture or kill him.

I wouldn't read too much into it much beyond that becasue when (for example) Clinton won his second term, the markets dropped the next day and dropped hard. Did that mean that they all thought Clinton would ruin the economy? No.

I think the post 9/11 pro-American purchases never helped in the long run. It had as much affect on buying as my $600 check Bush sent me. In fact, many corporations are feeling the 0% finance hangover.

 

Basra under air attack

Basra under air attack and artillery fire on the border reported in The New York Times. Iranian TV showing air raids on Basra. The war has already started.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/19/international/middleeast/19TROO.html

 

Not necessarily. There have been flyovers and isolated bombings going on for some time.

I also don't think the war will start right at the 48th hour either. Takes the element of surprise out of it. The US also wants to give a bit more time to get some last diplomats, etc. out.

 

Basra is in the southern no-fly zone.

 

I think there are some serious sandstorms going on for the next couple of days. Friday is looking good weather wise.

 

???

"Is she ever. I've got some stories....

DR. DOLEN
I'll bet. Shame about Ed.

FLETCH
It was. Really a shame. To go so suddenly.

DR. DOLEN
Oh, he was dying for years.

FLETCH
Sure, but the end was so sudden.

DR. DOLEN
He was in intensive care for eight weeks.

FLETCH
Yes, but the very end, when he actually died,
that was extremely sudden."

 

The actual fighting war is the least of our worries. The end result is hardly in doubt. I expect our generals to be far more competent than the Bush administration. The shooting itself should last a week, maybe two if the US commanders play it really cautiously and do not enrage the Iraqi populace by carpet bombing civilian targets either deliberately or accidently, thereby causing suicide attacks which are probably the greatest danger faced by our troops along with "friendly fire". Even if Saddam has some biochem weapons and uses them, they won't really affect our troops as we're prepared for it. Using biochem therefore won't help Saddam against us any more than they helped him against Iran. I don't expect a large amount of US casualties, at least not by, say, VietNam standards. At least, that's how I hope this plays out. I do feel sorry poor the schmucks on the Iraqi front lines as they'll be the ones dying in great numbers for nothing. My hope is the white flags go up at the first sign of US troops.

"Waging the peace", however, is another story. Where the shooting war will affect this is in how the US forces conduct themselves towards the civilians. If we use the carpet bombing approach and it offs tens of thousands of civilians, we'll only be shooting ourselves in the ass regarding building a stable post-war Iraq. So keeping even Iraqi casualties to a minimum is important.

 

Maybe the strategic thinking has changed but last I looked, they were talking about "overawing" the Iraqis with missile barrages. Sure, lots of those will be directed at military targets far removed from civilians but between the missiles that do get aimed at targets near civilains and between the potential for combat in urban areas, only a fool would completely discount the possibility of significant civilian casualties.

Since this seems to have been misinterpereted, I'll try to be more clear. I'm not saying "it's a 100% lock that 200,000 Iraqi civilians will be killed". I'm saying it's a concern that we'll kill enough civilians to piss off the Iraqi people in general, making things unnecessarily difficult for ourselves once the shooting stops. I don't know what exact number constitutes "enough to piss off the Iraqi people in general". I can only say that the fewer civilians we kill, the better off we are with regards to "waging the peace".

 

Heard this morning on NPR that 50 US soldiers and 200 Panamanians died during the Noriega ouster/invasion that this one is most likely to resemble. That was in a country with a population ~3,000,000. There are 4-5 mil in Baghdad alone.

 

No way. We play Prince's "1999" or "Purple Rain". They're both far dirtier.

 

I believe the the reporting to listen to comes from the ground. Ann Garells (NPR Baghdad) says the city is being abandoned (more than GW I), but there is no outright panic. Her interviews with Iraqis seem to imply that they feel this bombing will be like previous times. I believe that greater numbers are attempting to leave the city due to knowledge that ground war will be taken into Baghdad and uncertainty what this will mean.

Elsewhere, Kurds and anyone else who can are moving away from potential front lines. Interviews I've heard say they are scared of reprisals from Sadaam's troops before Americans come. These interviews also imply that people feel they will be returning to their homes in a matter of days or weeks.

 

According to BBC Radio, reporters have witnessed US troops entering DMZ, denied by Pentagon.

 

John Mayer. The blandness will lull him to sleep, making for an easy capture.

 

You'd only need one song:

Twisted Sister's "I Want Iraq."

Oh, wait, that's "I Wanna Rock"? Nevermind.