From my understanding, there is only one way the following nine teams can get into post-season play. An at-large bid to the NCAA. Who gets in from this list? My picks at the bottom. UCLA U of Wash Stanford California Oregon State Alabama A&M Drury South Carolina IUPUFW All other leagues have an automatic berth waiting for either the conference tourney champ or the regular season champ - correct? The PAC-10 doesn't quailify for an automatic berth because they are a 5 team league. FWIW- I think UCLA, UWash, and California are locks. And I think Stanford and SC will get in also.
Here's something I did on some bubble teams. As point of explanation, "good wins" are wins over teams with a good record or power ranking, "good losses" are losses to teams with a good record or power ranking and "bad losses" are losses to teams with a bad record or power ranking. Alabama-Birmingham - 9-6-0 GOOD WINS - Charlotte GOOD LOSSES - Portland, UNC Greensboro, Saint Louis, Memphis, Kentucky BAD LOSSES - Davidson STILL TO PLAY - 11/3 @ Louisville (5-8-4), 11/6 DePaul (3-13-3), CUSA Tournament THOUGHTS: All but one of their losses are to teams with winning records but only two of their wins come vs. teams above .500 and neither of them are highly ranked. They're going to have to make some noise in their conference tournament to help their chances. Clemson - 8-7-0 GOOD WINS - Brown GOOD LOSSES - UNC Greensboro, Duke, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, Maryland BAD LOSSES - Hofstra STILL TO PLAY - @Furman (6-8-1), North Carolina (8-7-2) THOUGHTS: When your best win is over an Ivy League team with seven wins, you're in trouble. And, the Hofstra loss sure doesn't help. The Tiggers need to win out and have to win AT LEAST one game in the ACC Tournament. Connecticut - 8-7-2 GOOD WINS - West Virginia (also tied VCU) GOOD LOSSES - Washington, Michigan, UC Santa Barbara, St. John's, Boston College, Seton Hall, Notre Dame BAD LOSSES - None STILL TO PLAY - @Providence (0-14-0), Big East Tournament THOUGHTS: The Huskies play a very ambitious non-con schedule but they didn't beat any of them and they haven't beaten any of the Big East's elite teams, either. The Providence win won't help their Strength of Schedule any so they're going to need a nice run in the conference tournament. Furman - 6-8-1 GOOD WINS - Princeton, South Carolina GOOD LOSSES - UNC Greensboro, Coastal Carolina, Charleston BAD LOSSES - Mercer, Georgia Southern, Davidson, Appalacian State STILL TO PLAY - Clemson (8-7-0), @Radford (6-5-4), Southern Conference Tournament THOUGHTS: Even if they get above .500, it's tough to get an at large-bid when you have this many soft losses. Likely need to win the automatic bid. North Carolina - 8-7-2 GOOD WINS - Ohio State, Virginia, South Carolina, William & Mary (also tied Penn State, GOOD LOSSES - Florida International, VCU, Old Dominion, UNC Greensboro, Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest BAD LOSSES - None STILL TO PLAY - Clemson (8-7-0), ACC Tournament THOUGHTS: Given their quality wins and that all their losses are to good teams, a win over Clemson ought to do it for them though another W in the tournament should seal the deal. Portland - 9-6-1 GOOD WINS - Alabama-Birmingham, Charleston, Washington, Akron, GOOD LOSSES - South Carolina, Loyola Marymount (twice), Santa Clara, San Francisco BAD LOSSES - UC Irvine, STILL TO PLAY - @ California (11-3-2), @ Santa Clara (12-4-0), @ San Francisco (11-3-1) @ St. Mary's (3-8-5) THOUGHTS: Given the quality wins they already have and that most of their losses are too good teams, two more wins ought to put them in good shape for the NCAAs, especially since at leat one of the wins would be against a team with at least 11 wins. Of course, getting only one win, especially if it's St. Mary's, and they are going to be pretty nervous on selection day. Rutgers - 6-8-4 GOOD WINS - Michigan, Charleston, Boston College (also tied William & Mary and St. John's) GOOD LOSSES - Old Dominion, Hartwick, Notre Dame BAD LOSSES - Syracuse, STILL TO PLAY - None. THOUGHTS: A losing record and not making your conference tournament pretty much seals your fate. No NCAA's for the Scarlet Knights. Saint Louis - 8-7-1 GOOD WINS - Virginia, SW Missouri State, Alabama-Birmingham, (also tied South Florida) GOOD LOSSES - Southern Methodist, St. John's, Charlotte, Memphis, Indiana BAD LOSSES - George Mason, Cincinnati, STILL TO PLAY - CUSA Tournament THOUGHTS: The bad losses are really coming back to haunt the Billikens, as are not getting better results against up-and-coming teams like Memphis and Charlotte. They must win at least one game in their tournament but likely need two to ensure a bid. A first round loss and they don't get a bid. San Diego - 6-7-3 GOOD WINS - Santa Clara, (also tied Portland) GOOD LOSSES - California, Stanford, Portland, San Francisco, Cal St. Northridge, Loyola Marymount (twice) BAD LOSSES - (also tied Dartmouth and St. Mary's) STILL TO PLAY - St. Mary's (3-8-5), San Francisco (11-3-5), @UCLA (10-2-2), @ Santa Clara (12-4-0) THOUGHTS: Obviously, they needs some wins just to get above .500. The good news is that three of their remaining games are against quality teams so if they get three Ws, they'd be two games up with some good wins on their resume and would have a good case. If they don't win at least three more games, however, and they likely don't get in. Stanford - 7-4-5 GOOD WINS - Southern Methodist, (also tied Tulsa, California, Washington) GOOD LOSSES - Santa Clara, UCLA twice), Washington BAD LOSSES - None (but tied UC Davis) STILL TO PLAY - UC Santa Barbara (13-2-1), California (11-3-2) THOUGHTS: Only four losses but only seven wins, though there are some ties against some good teams. The Cardinal don't have much room for error, especially since they only have one good win, so they really need to win at least one of their remaining games.
There will be 22 (I believe) automatic bids (league or conference tourney champ) and 26 at-large bids. At-large candidates include anyone who didn't get an automatic bid. However, the 9 teams in the list above cannot get an automatic bid and can only get in as at-large teams. There is not a predefined number of open spots for the above nine teams.
Great post Sandon. Interested to know your thoughts on the Big Ten bubble teams. Namely Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State. Also, what about Duke? Are they secure despite their recent fallings? How about LMU out west or even a team like SWMS?
I agree. I think that most of the at-large teams will be from the larger conferences. The CAA should get about three or four total votes.