Do you think they would have a playable field in March? It's one thing to put a qualifier in potentially bad weather in Columbus where they are going into the winter with a field that's probably in fairly good shape - not beat up from 10-12 NFL games from August to January... it's another thing to put a qualifier in Foxboro, where the Patriots played two preseason NFL games, eight regular season and potentionally two playoff games in January (plus any Revs games and a U.S. Soccer event that happened during that window) - that field doesn't have the time to recover from that and be in good shape in March if you ask me. The weather is brutal by the time the Patriots are done with it, so they go into winter with a beat-up field and they don't have enough good weather before the home qualifier to get it back up to the level it needs to be.
I think the goal needs to be to start 6-0-1 - win the four home games, win at Trinidad, draw at Mexico, win in Panama. It's ambitious, but it's not a ridiculous goal. We would be sitting pretty with 19 points (third place the last two times had 17 and 14 points), going into those two tough games at Guatemala and Costa Rica. And with the Panama game and its potential three points still waiting in the last Match Day. That Trinidad away game may look easy, but Ash Wednesday is probably the worst possible time to be facing them there as it's the day after Carnivale, which is huge there. Think New Orleans on Mardi Gras (same day). So I expect a win, but realize it may be asking a lot. Going into the tournament, it is mathematically possible for the top four teams to all reach 21 points by going 5-0 at home and defeating the two worst teams on the road. But I fully expect 19 would get us in the top three. And I expect we'd get there by going 5-0 at home, 1-2-2 on the road with a win in Panama, draws in Trinidad and Guatemala and losses at Mexico and Costa Rica (20 points). If we slip up with one draw at home, that's 18 points, which would've gotten us into the top three in '98 and '02.
I don't know if this out of our reach. I agree, we need to maximize our points from our home games and we need to win in Trinidad and Panama. If we win out at home (5 games x 3 points per game = 15 points) and win in Panama and Trinidad (6 points), that's 21 points, and we still have the games in Mexico, Costa Rica and Guatemala remaining. Of course, like csh said, it's ambitious but I think we're to the point where we can expect and obtain that. Above all, we cannot afford to lose at home. We stole points in Honduras last time and squandered them away by losing here. Last time, we were 4-1 at home and didn't qualify until matchday nine. With the way the schedule is set up, four out of five at home, two late matches in Central America, we cannot afford to lose any of our home games. A draw doesn't help, but a loss will be damaging.
Someone a while back said 18 is probably a good target - and I would agree. Basically, that is the standard win at home/tie on the road plan with two points to spare (two losses instead of wins). So we can afford to lose in Mexico and either Costa Rica or Guatemala, but otherwise, we need to tcob. As tight as I think things are going to be among M, CR, G and us, I think we need all the points we can get from T&T and Panama. I would like to see Bruce go for the jugular on Matchday One - I just don't know if we will get it. From what I've seen, this is going to be a tougher (and probably tighter) Hex than in '98 or '02 as it looks like Guatemala and Panama are coming in stronger at the four and five spots. So - let's do what I think Bruce is probably going to do - take it one game at a time and see how things play out.
How do you figure that? I look at Panama, and they played well in our group - they earned their spot. Guatemala's group was no cakewalk (although Canada caved pretty badly) and the only weak one I see is T&T. Last time around, Jamaica and T&T were pretty weak, and Honduras was strong - but I'm not sure they are as strong as Guatemala now. How do you see it?
I disagree. Consider: US 05 are better than US 01; more depth, more experienced First XI. Mexico 05, well, Mexico are always tough and strong and challenging. Costa Rica 05 is at least as good as the 01 version. They might now in Mexico again but their home dominance hasn't evaded. They hit a dry patch early in qualifying and were crap in Copa America but otherwise they'll be as strong as ever. Guatemala 05 should be as good as Honduras 01. Honduras 01 beat Mexico at home, won at the US and tied in Costa Rica. They also lost at home to the US, Trinidad and Costa Rica and drew with Jamaica. I think Guatemala will beat or at least draw with Trinidad at home and split with Costa Rica. And Guatemala is certainly capable of winning at the US (lost 1-0 in 00 at RFK). Trinidad 05 and Trinidad 01? Well, Trinidad 01 helped both the US and Mexico tremendously by winning in Honduras. If Honduras had beaten Trinidad at home last time, they go into Mexico ahead on points, 17-14, and even with the US. And they probably play for a draw in Mexico instead of playing for a win. Panama 05 and Jamaica 01? Well, Jamaica had a better home-field edge going into 2001 qualifying, but they did go out and lose to Mexico in Kingston. I don't know, it might be a wash. Panama did give Mexico a tough game in Panama City in 2000 and we all saw what they did to us this year down there. The 98 qualifying teams, with El Salvador, a weaker Costa Rica side and Canada, that was weaker than this round.
18 pts should be the magic number. Since Mexico really wasn't challenged in the last round, do you think it will hurt them in this round?
I think it could. Those games they played against St Kitts and St Vincent were, YAWN, a bit on the boring side to watch. You could tell even from television that there wasn't the same passion on the field as usual. Everybody knew Mexico would win, it was just a question of by how much. One of the main things that brings teams together is adversity and Mexico faced none of it last time around. So if they go down to Costa Rica and the match is in the second half, how will they respond? They certainly didn't respond to well to adversity in Copa America and by cakewalking through the semifinal round they have faced none of it since July. You might argue that they had to prep themselves for the match in Trinidad, but even that was in September and led pretty much the whole game. Look at other teams. Costa Rica was on the verge of being eliminated. The US needed two stoppage-time goals to pull out draws. Panama had to respond from a 6-0 drubbing. And Guatemala were thrashed 5-0 then had to go home and win and they did. Trinidad, well, they kinda had it easy too because of St Vincent and St Kitts but they played Mexico twice and lost twice and had to recover from those losses as well. Mexico, like any other nation, can't just show up and turn on the switch and expect everything to turn out fine.
One thing you may have noticed is that in many of our games, our opponent's previous game was vs. Trinidad & Tobago (which was drawn into #5 and we are #6). I think that's the case for six games - excluding obviously the two matches vs. TRI and the match immediately following it each time around (Mexico). It includes the back-end of every double-date (3, 5, 8 & 10). That's a bit unfortunate, unless Trinidad & Tobago performs better than many people here seem to expect they will (myself included). If they flop, as we're expecting, our opponents will have their confidence up after a good result in a lot of these games, whereas we'll be coming off a game against a better opponent.
That 6-0 scoreline was deceptively decisive. I felt the match was still up in the air well into the second half before we started pulling away. It was 1-0 at halftime and we didn't get our third goal until the 70th and then we pulled away in the last 20 min. But before we got goals 2 and 3, I felt Panama was very much still in the match and kept the pressure on us.
I don't think the field in 1998 was all that stacked. Canada and El Salvador were weak and Jamaica made it through in third place with just 14 points. Even Costa Rica wasn't that strong - they were in fourth place with 12 points, but got three of them in the last game vs. last place Canada. There were a lot of draws (13 of 30 games) to bring the overall point totals down - no team had more wins than draws. The field in 2002 was pretty strong, though there were two teams noticably below everyone else, before Trinidad & Tobago pulled off some late upsets to get some points. Weren't they 0-7-1 with one point going into the Honduras game while we played Jamaica in Foxboro? They finished with five points, if I'm remembering correctly. This time around, however, that playoff spot going to #4 will keep all teams in play well into the competition. By the midway point last time, Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago were well on their way to being eliminated. They still were tough to get points from (ask Honduras about that), but they weren't playing for anything tangible. This time there will be something tangible for them to fight for well into the competition, so I'm a bit reluctant to assume that Panama will be a walk-over in Match Day 10. I certainly like having a home game that isn't against Mexico, Costa Rica or even Guatemala as our final one, but those points are going to need to be earned, just as they will for every other game. So, I gotta disagree about this being a weaker field than in past Final Rounds. There's more incentive in the bottom half of the table and I think the teams that made it out of Groups 1 and 2 from the Semifinal Round were well-tested. Panama advanced ahead of a very respectable Jamaican side (though clearly not equal to what they had in 1998) and Guatemala and Costa Rica made it out of a group that had respectable opposition from Honduras and Canada. Mexico and Trinidad, however, had little more than token opposition in Group 3.
Haven't had a chance to read the thread but I'm a bit nervous about the Hex draw. The fact that we start on the road with, not one, but two games makes getting a result at T&T almost NECESSARY since I'm not sure we can even get a draw in Mexico. Our advancement will come down to the middle when we play 4 of 5 games at home & the only road game is at Panama. IMHO we MUST get 12 or 13 pts out of a possible 15 in those five games. We do finish at home v Panama but I HOPE it doesn't come down to needing a result in that game. I wish we had gotten a "better balance" in terms of home & away games but what's done is done. I STILL KNOW we'll make it to Germany but if we don't get the full 3 points @ T&T in the first game, it might get a bit nerve-wracking in the summer of 2005.
Trinidad sucks. They lost to Northern Ireland this year. They have some decent forwards, but they are not even close to our level. We won't dominate, but we'll probably win by our usual 2-0 scoreline. I'm expecting all 12 points against Trinidad and Panama.
On paper the Hex may not look as strong as it has been in the past, however the games still have to be played, and remember anyone can beat anyone on any given day. Arena needs to get his team focused for game 1 and not worry about any other matches until that match is next. I think the US will go thru as the No 1 or 2 for sure, but I hope they don't look past any team this go around.