PREDICTION: Quarterfinals Samoa def. New Caledonia Papua New Guinea def. Tonga Fiji def. Cook Islands Tahiti def. Solomon Islands Semifinals Papua New Guinea def. Samoa Fiji def. Tahiti Final Papua New Guinea def. Fiji
Samoa def. New Caledonia Papua New Guinea def. Tonga Fiji def. Cook Islands Solomon Islands def. Tahiti Samoa def. Papua New Guinea Fiji def. Solomon Islands Fiji def. Samoa
🎟 A ticket to the #WNC2022 semi-finals and a Jayda Stewart hat-trick for Samoa. pic.twitter.com/LvAvLAP12l— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022 Monique Fischer(35), Jayda Stewart(52,83,90+5) - Sarah Uregei(43,90) 🤔 Who will join Samoa in the first #WNC2022 semi-final, Papua New Guinea or Tonga? WATCH LIVE | https://t.co/LwNtJqNS4O pic.twitter.com/HE5ja1IAUK— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022
🇹🇴 Tonga up 2-0 at the break! #WNC2022 WATCH LIVE & FREE | https://t.co/LwNtJqNS4O pic.twitter.com/GA1XG1wGvr— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022
What worries me is that Tonga had to substitute their goalkeeper in the first half(already the third used in this tournament) and replace her by the goalkeeper who has played against Samoa.
😱 This match is still going… in extra time! #WNC2022 pic.twitter.com/iHm7WlcC8c— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea win 3-2 on penalties after 3-3 at extra time. An insane game! #WNC2022 pic.twitter.com/MRUN3hDTrJ— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea will join Samoa in the #WNC2022 semi-final 1. pic.twitter.com/GpYj5M6AJ1— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 23, 2022 Ramona Padio(63,99), Meagan Gunemba(70) - Daviana Vaka(29), Jazmine Loto`aniu(44,109)
OFC Women's Nations Cup 🏆Quarter Final Results pic.twitter.com/oTGTR8Q7Lo— Wosoworld (@karlyboy71) July 23, 2022
Considering these were two pot 1 teams, this wouldn't have been *too* big of an upset had Tonga prevailed... though it certainly still would have been an upset - a bigger one that when Samoa beat Tonga, for sure. There were as many goals in these two games today than there were in all of group A + group B combined. Preseason is definitely over!
Concerning World Ranking a Tongan win over Papua New Guinea would be a bigger upset than a Papua New Guinean win over New Zealand.
Technically speaking, yeah! Especially if you focus on ranking vs rating. But as we've said on the boards often enough before, the rating it more important, and the rankings get tighter (and less reliable) the further down you go. By rating, those two upsets are 267pts for TON over PNG versus 242pts for PNG over NZL, so they're actually about equally likely if you're putting as much trust in the smaller nations' ratings as you are in NZL's rating. NZL's rating by itself is pretty reliable, so considering how often NZL absolutely pummels anyone else in OFC by more than 6 goals, it stands to reason that PNG (and likely FIJ) are overrated in the official rankings. My point with the previous post was more discerning just how clustered "the rest of OFC" is or not. PNG has been top of that pack for seven tournaments, only in the most recent previous edition seeing Fiji pass them. So they're definitely the top of "the rest", hence TON over PNG being bigger than SAM over TON. But with NZL always being so much further ahead, I think it's still clear that PNG is closer to the rest than to NZL, so TON over PNG isn't that big in comparison to PNG over NZL.
Well, it looks like the Samoa-New Caledonia match, at least initially, was defined by defensive mistakes (as many other games in these OFC tournament, basically), but it's true that, when there is an half-decent player on the pitch, she has the potential to completely dominate these kind of games: Jayda Stewart not only had a hat-trick, but also made the through pass leading to Samoa's first goal. Talking about defensive mistakes, indeed Tonga's 2nd Half GK definitely costed them the game.
Fiji are semi-final bound! The hosts beat a spirited Cook Islands side to advance at the #WNC2022 tonight. pic.twitter.com/muIgkDundC— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 24, 2022 Sofi Diyalowai(22), Luisa Tamanitoakula(74)
💪 Solomon Islands get the job done and book their ticket to the #WNC2022 semi-finals. pic.twitter.com/lGCselRqs8— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 24, 2022 Mary Maefiti(38)
Based on rankings, the two highest ranked teams advanced to the semifinals and the 7th & 8th ranked teams also advanced. The final should be Papua New Guinea vs. Fiji, but the host country may pull of the upset. In the preliminary round, Fiji & Solomon Is settled for a 1-1 draw.
Agree it should be PNG v FIJ, but honestly I can see both SFs as upsets. As you pointed out, SOL already played the hosts to a draw in the group stage. Plus, if you look at group stage results, SAM did better against TON than PNG did, and now PNG is coming into the SFs having spent 30min more of energy.
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea are through to the #WNC2022 final! Match report to come. pic.twitter.com/gUxRyPz4nj— Oceania Football Confederation (@OFCfootball) July 27, 2022 Charlie Yanding(44), Meagan Gunemba(48,79) Faith Kasiray saved a penalty from Monique Fischer(Samoa) (65).
1552223925202976769 is not a valid tweet id Cema Nasau(15,28), Luisa Tamanitoakula(83) - Ileen Pegi(10p)