OFC Qualification For FIFA World Cup 2018

Discussion in 'Oceania' started by EvanJ, Sep 25, 2014.

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Will Oceanic team qualify to Russia 2018?

Poll closed Jun 23, 2016.
  1. Yes

    6.7%
  2. No

    93.3%
  1. AllWhitebeliever

    AllWhitebeliever Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    On the injury table
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    New Zealand
    #26 AllWhitebeliever, Aug 23, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2015
    CONMEBOL has 10 countries, sorry my error.

    Firstly, I think that currently CAF should have more than 5 WC spots due to the quantity of the countries and the pool group play is unrealistically ruthless and too narrow and does not alway get the best set of countries from that region to the World Cup. I see the value of the runners ups and dislike unseen incidentals that affects team placings. Teams purposefully lose to allow other teams to undeservingly win the group because they hate another team in the competition. I would also consider cutting a few WC spots from the UEFA and give that to CAF. UEFA has a few more spots that shouldn't be there. CAF should have playoffs among the second getters in the pool play similar to what UEFA has for best third placers after pool play.

    WC spot should be allocated every 12 years by way of Elo rating (quality) with consideration to regional differences with weights due to playing population (quantity). Go figure a formula that reflects that. I don't have the time or the need to sort that out.

    But let's say WC spots are ten for the five regions, (if FIFA is still using the wealthier confederation as unfair leverage,) in each confederation divide their 20+ members into four groups of five+. Pool winners and runners up go to the next stage. In each of the five confederation, the final group of eight play each other and the top two of each final group go through. (10 to qualify).

    Plenty of four membered pool play practice may help make assist strategic decisions in WC pool play to get to the second round. That's what I look for.

    The UEFA's 54 is split East, North and South so each has 18 countries which then makes for four pool groups of 4+ in their competitions. Top two of each pool group goes though. Therefore 24 countries drawn into four pool groups of 6. Getting the top two to qualify. The four 3rd placers have a final playoff group of 4 to determine the best two. (10 to qualify) [I personally don't think they have more than 10 unless you add the host.]

    CONCACAF's 34 divides into eight pool groups of 4+. Top two goes through giving 16 countries. Then two final groups of 8 in the next stage. Top two in each group qualify. (4 to qualify)

    CONMEBOL's 17 will break into four pool groups of 4+. Top two from each group go to the next stage and then the one final playoff group of 8 teams. Top four qualify. (4 to qualify)

    Basically all start with either four or eight pool groups of 4 or 5 or 6 with the top two go into the next stage. Each stage are groups of 4 or final playoff group of 8 until you are left with teams in the WC spots allocated.

    So in adding up . . .

    Host gets 1 WC spot.
    AFC/ OFC/CAF reformed to five confederations gets 10 WC spots.
    UEFA gets 10 WC spots.
    CONCACAF gets 4 WC spots.
    CONMEBOL gets 4 WC spots.

    That will give you 29 WC spots.

    You need 3 more WC spots.

    The ultimate final world group . . . A two-three week tournament style in the host country, months before the WC finals.

    5 third place getters from the AFC/OFC/CAF combined
    2 third place getters from UEFA
    2 third place getter from CONCACAF
    1 fifth place getter from CONMEBOL

    Drawn into two groups of five by lots and then the group winner qualify and the playoff for last WC spot will be between the two group runners up. (3 to qualify) If there is a second host (co-host) then no playoff, but the top two go on to a crossover group winners vs the other group runners up for an instant knockout. You want the best at the tournament.

    And that's your 32 teams for the WC final tournament. Most teams that qualify from the confederation plays either 11 or 12 games. None of that home and away return legs, for each team it is roughly half and half home or away and it can determine by biased lots, so they each get a few home and a few away. The ultimate final world group add five or six extra games over at least two weeks at a neutral venue of the host country. Can separate the groups for co host country.
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Based on your games count, you're making each country play every other country once in each group stage instead of twice. Why? How would you determine who gets to host the groups? Here's my idea, which is modeled after CONCACAF:

    Round 1: Two leg series to reduce the number of teams to 12. If there were more than 24 teams, this would require two rounds. If there were exactly 24 teams, everybody would play the same number of rounds. If there were fewer than 24 teams, some teams would get to skip Round 1.

    Round 2: 3 groups of 4. Each team would play 6 games. The Top 2 in each group would advance. The 12 teams in Round 2 could also play confederational tournaments so that they wouldn't need separate qualification for the World Cup and confederational tournaments.

    Round 3: A 6 team group requiring each team to play 10 games. The Top 2 would qualify, and if the group got a different amount of World Cup spots like 1.5 or 2.5 the format would still work.
     
  3. silverllama

    silverllama Member

    Jun 26, 2007
    So concacaf losses 7 teams, but gains 1 full spot and one playoff spot.
    South America adds seven but doesn't get any spots at all.
    These would make zero sense for the central americans. From having a great chance to get one our two teams in a world cup. To be very likely to have 0 teams going at all.
     
  4. jonny63

    jonny63 Member+

    Feb 17, 2005
    Norway
    Tonga 0-3 Cook Isl
    Samoa 3-2 American Samoa
     
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  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #30 EvanJ, Sep 1, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2015
  6. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Tonga is out, I expected more from them.
     
  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tonga 1:2 American Samoa

    Cook Islands advances with a win, draw, or 1 goal loss to American Samoa. Goal differential is the first tiebreaker. If American Samoa wins by 2 and Samoa beats Tonga by 2, there would be three teams with 6 points and a +2 goal differential.
     
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tonga 0:3 Samoa

    Here are the scenarios for American Samoa-Cook Islands

    Cook Islands advances with a win, draw, or 1 goal loss with at least 2 goals scored*
    Samoa advances with a Cook Islands loss by exactly 2 goals or a Cook Islands loss by exactly 1 goal with 0 or 1 goals scored
    American Samoa advances with a win by at least 3 goals

    *If the score is American Samoa 3:2 Cook Islands, there are two possibilities because Wikipedia isn't clear about the tiebreakers. In that case American Samoa, Cook Islands, and Samoa would have 6 points each. Cook Islands and Samoa would have the same goal differential and a better goal differential than American Samoa. If American Samoa is eliminated from the tiebreaker first, Cook Islands would advance due to their head-to-head win over Samoa. That is what I think will happen, but if the goal differential tiebreaker is ignored because it doesn't place one team ahead of the other two, it would procede to head-to-head points (3 each), head-to-head goal differential (0 each), and head-to-head goals scored (which would advance American Samoa). Samoa's third goal in the 77th made it harder for American Samoa and eliminated the possibility of Samoa, American Samoa, and Cook Islands being tied on points and goal differential.
     
  11. fridge46

    fridge46 Member

    Oct 23, 2011
    You are right - it will be the former scenario.

    The tiebreakers are split into 2 sets:

    1) All teams are seperated on points, then goal difference then goal scored [Regulation 20.6a, 20.6b, 20.6c]
    2) Head-to-head - points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then away goals [20.6d, 20.6e, 20.6f, 20.6g]

    Head-to-head record will only come into force if there is a tie (to the teams still involved in the tie) after applying 20.6c.
     
  12. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    American Samoa - Cook Islands 2-0
    Tonga - Samoa 0-3

    American Samoa was short one goal of qualifying while Cook Islands failed not to lose and they are out too - meaning Samoa qualified (to next WCQ round and OFC Nations Cup) for second time in a row, after defeating hosts by 3-0.

    I like the obvious progress of American Samoa NT, they are getting better and better every time now. Shame there are no games in next four years for them or for Cook Islands - Tonga is helpless. I think that OFC should start organizing Nations Cup every two years.
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  14. AlleXyS

    AlleXyS Member

    Steaua Bucureşti
    Apr 22, 2014
    Bucharest
    Club:
    FC Steaua Bucuresti
    Nat'l Team:
    Romania
    wow, very nice this preliminary round with 3 teams of 6 points :D
     
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What's the most World Cup Qualifiers an OFC country has ever played in one year? The OFC winner will play 8 qualifiers in 2017 and possibly the Confederations Cup:

    4 games in Round 3 Group Stage (groups of 3, each country plays 4 games and has 2 matchdays off, will be in March, June and late August to early September 2017)

    2 leg series between the two group winners in October 2017

    2 leg playoff vs. CONMEBOL 5th in November 2017
     
  16. fridge46

    fridge46 Member

    Oct 23, 2011
    For qualifiers where OFC have their own section, 8 games in a year matches 1985, 1997 and 2001.

    In 1997, it was possible for Solomons to play 10 qualifiers, but failed to advance from the group stage.

    On a side note - in 1997 and 2001, Australia also played 5 Confederation Cup matches (RU in 1997, 3rd in 2001)

    Up until the 1982 World Cup, OFC and AFC qualifiers were merged. The record here is 1981, where New Zealand played 14 qualifying matches.
     
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  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I see that in qualifying for World Cup 1998, OFC started with a Melanesian Group and a Polyneisan Group. Each group had three teams and the groups combined to have two teams advance. However, the two teams that advanced were not the group winners. The Melanesian Group winner advanced, and the Polynesian Group winner had to play a playoff with the Melanesian Group second place team, and the Melanesian Group second place team won. Does anybody have information on who came up with that format?
     
  18. AllWhitebeliever

    AllWhitebeliever Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    On the injury table
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    New Zealand
    That would New Zealand in the 1982 qualification starting from April 81 to January 82. They played 15 matches. If you mean only in the calendar year then it would be 14 matches in 1981. The 15th match was the one off playoff against China that they won. That was played in January 1982. After this because it was long travelling that included AFC teams and 15 matches, FIFA decided that no team will ever play as much games for their qualification again. So this will stay as a record for the most travelled and most matches played in the qualifications for the World Cup finals tournament.
     
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  19. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  20. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Papua New Guinea will host 2016 OFC Nations Cup (World Cup Qualifiers stage 2) as they were sole bidders. NZFC failed again.

    In a further boost for Papua New Guinea’s football fans, the OFC President also confirmed that Papua New Guinea was the only Member Association to present a bid to host the 2016 OFC Nations Cup.
     
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  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    OFC qualifying (excluding the interconfederational playoff) will end as late as it could in October 2017. In the past here is when OFC qualifying has ended:

    26 March 2013
    19 November 2008 (was supposed to be 10 September 2008 but a game was postponed, the OFC Nations Cup and World Cup qualifying were the same)
    12 October 2004
     
  22. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    you missed the 2006 qualifying by a year. Australia and Soloman Islands, as the two best teams from the OFC Nations Cup, had a playoff in either September or October 2005 to decide who played the SOuth American 5th placed team.
     
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  23. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was 3 September and 6 September.
     
  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  25. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

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