Lucked out in getting tickets to Match 49, which sees winner of Group A facing runner-up in Group B. I will be taking overnight buses from Brasilia to Belo Horizonte, 10 hours each way to see this match. As each day passes, I get more worried that Brazil will be upset and not win their group. In the world cup, anything can happen. Croatia is a strong side that has played well against top tier squads in previous tournaments. Brazil are the clear favorites but they're a young squad playing in front of arguable the most demanding fans in the world. Will the pressure get to their heads? So what are the odds that Brazil wins group A?
1) Brazil beats Cameroon: Brazil advances and likely wins the group, except if Mexico scores a lot on Croatia in which case Brazil is second. 2) Brazil draws with Cameroon: Brazil advances, but will be second if Mexicans and Croatians do not draw. If they draw, Brazil is first. 3) Brazil loses to Cameroon: Brazil can't be first. It still advance if Mexico beats Croatia, or Croatia beats Mexico by several goals. A draw in Croatia vs. Mexico eliminates Brazil. Odds of the three situations above: I'd put them at 85% for the first one, 10% for the second one, and 5% for the third one.