NWSL 2024 Week 22

If SD can beat NC, then that Utah v Portland match has a little extra spice (ginger), as Utah actually has a better record over the last 5 games than Portland.

And though Utah winning wouldn't improve SD's chances to make the playoffs by much it would narrow the gap down to 3 points with only 3 games remaining. And a Gotham win would also put SD within 3 of Bay as well, for that 8th spot.

And if Louisville win, that would put 3 teams on 28 points, and SD at 25.

It would make for quite the tight race for the last two playoffs spots over the remaining 3 games.

 

That's not saying much.

 

Three goals in four minutes is intense

 

Utah indeed win by 1-2 and Portland's record becomes even worse.

@cpthomas, I don't follow NWSL very closely these days, so are you able to explain to me what's happening to Portland? On paper, they should still be an excellent team, with players who did wonders in previous seasons. What's so different in this one?

 

It's hard to say, but to venture a guess ....

They are in a "going young" rebuilding process. This is Sinclair's last year and, to be honest, she is well past her prime and needs to be replaced, maybe even already should have been. Sauerbrunn is getting there, too. She still plays pretty well, but is not what she once was. Klingenberg is in the same situation but seems even more past her prime than Sinclair. They have two and often three new, young players on the field at the same time as their back four. They were missing Weaver for the season until recently and she is just reintegrating into the team. Smith has been injured and for the past few games Sugita, too (I believe under the concussion protocol). Bixby has been out on pregnancy leave, so they've been using two keepers, one of whom is a good shot stopper but a poor distributor and the other of who is a good distributor but mediocre shot stopper. Beyond Weaver and Smith, their other forwards are very young and first or second year players on the team. The net result of all of this is that they are just barely beginning to play as a team. It's a good example of where good individual players just put together on the field do not make a good team. They need time to figure out how to play together.

On top of that, I am doubtful about both their coach and their general manager.

 

Well, it was a quite elaborate and convincing guess! You gave me much more than just a rough idea of what's happening: thank you very much for that.

 

To add my two cents about Portland, they seemed to be doing fairly well up until the summer break. Sure, June wasn't great, but a loss to KC and two away draws isn't awful either - and before those three matches, they won seven of eight. I'll admit I haven't watched any of those matches, and I've only seen Portland in action during the Summer Cup and CWCC, but from those two competitions, there are two things I've noticed. First, the passing is off, often moreso in the second half, which might be related to the second thing, which is that the team just look tired. It might be part of an aging core, it might be coaching, but I haven't seen that tiredness out of Gotham or San Diego (the other two teams that are regularly playing midweek matches alongside Portland). I think the big thing that shows tiredness coming into effect is the breakdown of their goals scored and given up from August onward (regular season and CWCC):

1' - 15' : 2-3
16' - 30' : 2-2
31'-45+' : 1-0
46' - 60' : 6-4
61' - 75' : 1-6
76'-90+' : 0-4
To note: many of the goals in that 46'-60' window are usually POR scoring first and their opponent answering minutes later.

It looks to me like Portland are slow getting out of the gate, especially the first ten minutes (0-3), then having an okay midgame (11-6), and finally faltering after the hour mark. I mean, they've been outscored 1-10 (!) after that point in games since the Summer Cup ended, if I've counted correctly. It takes a while for the team to get in gear, and then they gas out completely. And that's mirrored in their overall record across the season - a slow start, a steady climb up the table, and now a collapse. Sure seems to me like team energy is a big issue for them.

 

I'm looking at the remaining schedule to try figuring out any contingencies...

NC can *technically* still claim the #2 spot and assure continental play the following year, but they need to win out *and* make up a fair amount of GD on both WAS and NJY to do so. Much more likely that WAS, NJY, and KC all wrap up round-one hosting this coming weekend.

At the other end of the table, Seattle absolutely needs to win out to qualify for the playoffs. After that, they'd have 29pts, and they want the teams they can't catch and Houston to win whatever other matches they have, depriving the "catchable" teams of points. They're left then to consider LOU-POR, LA-UTA, POR-LA, and SD-LOU, which is technically still workable since at this theoretical point LA, UTA, and SD can't catch them at 29, so let LOU beat POR and those two then lose their other match. Get all of that to work out, and SEA makes the playoffs.

UTA has a point cushion over SEA right now, but their prospects aren't much better, but it does allow the teams they're chasing to get an extra draw in and still get passed. Losing Sentnor to the youth world cup in September really hurt their chances.

With just 3 games to go, neither LA nor SD can catch CHI, and the fact that POR and LOU will play each other down the line means that CHI's magic number at this point is just 2pts (and not the 3pts that would outright protect them from LOU).