NWSL 2024 Week 11

Discussion in 'NWSL' started by Jeremy Goodwin, Jun 7, 2024.

  1. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NWSL is back in action after a short international break. We're now in the last runup to the long summer break for two international windows including the Olympic window.

    FRI Jun 7:
    20:00 Louisville hosts Houston (NWSL+)
    22:00 San Diego hosts Orlando (Prime Video)

    SAT Jun 8:
    12:30 Gotham hosts Angel City (CBS/Paramount+)
    19:30 Chicago Hosts Bay FC (ION)
    19:30 Utah Hosts Washington (NWSL+)
    22:00 Portland hosts North Carolina (ION)

    SUN Jun 9:
    18:00 Kansas City hosts Seattle (NWSL+)

    Untitled.png

    May's player awards are also here:
    EA Sports Player of the month: Barbra Banda
    Ally Rooking of the month: Croix Bethune

    Best XI should be announced soon.

    Over the break, it was announced that the NWSL x LIGA MX Femenil Summer Cup will be broadcast on CBS Golazo (11 Matches) /CBS SN (12 Matches) /all matches on Paramount+. Spanish coverage will be on TUDN and NWSL+.
     
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  2. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    As an aside, both NC and LA will be represented at TST this weekend, as will the Tampa Bay Sun of USLSL, with the highest-profile names among them* including Jess McDonald with NC and Formiga and Veronica Perez with Tampa Bay. (Of course, the USWNT and Wrexham will also be in the women's tournament, with their own high-profile names.)
     
  3. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    What's with the big crowd for Gotham?
     
  4. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #4 Jeremy Goodwin, Jun 8, 2024
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2024
    It was their designated pride event with some giveaways, probably a focus game for the group sales office.
     
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  5. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    This setup in Chicago looks better than the Yankee Stadium setup.
     
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  6. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NWSL After Dark — Sophia Smith picks up a 2nd YC and the red card while on the bench after subbing out (!)





    Yeah, that is pretty amazing that ION caught that on camera!
     
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  7. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Excellent save, great shot too.

    And there's the first, Seattle showing some good stuff last ten minutes.
     
  8. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chawinga. Cool as a cucumber as Ray would have it.
     
  9. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Thoroughly enjoyable game except for the marble mouthed oaf doing color commentary. Watching it on mute and only bringing up the sound for goal replays.
     
  10. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I knew you'd have something to say about it :)

    Quite a first half. Someday NWSL will develop solid defenses but it won't be today.
     
  11. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    2-2 and feels like it could be more.
     
  12. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not sure what's up with the coverage for this game. NWSL website just said NWSL+, but it is also on Golazo, and Paramount+ looks like it has at least most of the 2024 season archived games on it now.
     
  13. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chawinga with the assist and then a second goal of her own in the first two minutes of the second half!
     
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  14. TheJoeGreene

    TheJoeGreene Member+

    Aug 19, 2012
    The Lubbock Texas
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Someone should let the Reign know the second half started.
     
  15. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Yeah, big yikes there...
    I think P+ has the rights for archiving, but that's definitely different rights than the live coverage
    When your league attracts the "top talent" from the world, that usually means attacking talent. It's also a very American thing to prefer high-scoring offenses over tight defenses, as even MLS has this problem.
     
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I do not criticize refs often, but I thought Danielle Chesky was abysmal in the Thorns v Courage game. From the beginning of the game, it looked to me like the Courage came to try to bludgeon the Thorns into submission (did not work). She let it go too much and the result was an ugly game in which she had to struggle to maintain control pretty much the whole time, with limited success and a tremendous amount of chippiness. She should know better and should have gotten control right away rather than letting it get out of hand. It wasn't simply a matter of physical play, it was a matter of players being put in danger.

    My opinion of the Courage has dropped considerably, as it appeared physical and potentially dangerous play was part of their game strategy.
     
  17. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    After this week's games, it looks like we have a top three, two chasers, two bottom-dwellers, and then fairly tight through the rest of the pack. If that holds up, it looks like we'll have good Shield and playoff-qualification races, less exciting playoff-hosting and wooden-spoon races. I kinda want to do an RPI or strength-of-schedule analysis to see if we can get any more refined of an analysis here...
     
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  18. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You're going to have to show your work! (tee-hee!) I thought Chesky missed a possible yellow card early in the match, which could've spelled trouble (about 10'15 just after Fleming's shot from outside the box which Murphy hauled in for a save), and of course she needed VAR to spot the penalty in the 2nd half, but on the whole I thought it was a reasonably well-refereed match, very far from an "abysmal" job.

    I reviewed the 1st half. Maybe there will be more problems in the 2nd half, but I mainly was bothered by the miss at 10'15 when Malia Berkeley half-lunged, half-slid, straight in at Hina Sugita who was positioned to block or steal the ball. Denise O'Sullivan was a bit feisty for North Carolina (maybe spent too much time with Katie McCabe while with Ireland on international break) and she wound up getting a yellow card in the 2nd half for Persistent Infringement, but I didn't see anything especially dangerous from her.

    In an earlier thread I tried identifying useful indicators of a good referee. I think some of them apply to Chesky's first half
    • Not over-reacting every time a player winds up on the ground / allowing normal physical play
    • Not blowing the whistle too quickly but allowing time for advantage to develop
    • The aesthetic test — is it an interesting and enjoyable contest to watch? Does it invite evaluation & analysis of the tactics and how well the players are playing? Does it invite the armchair coach in us?

    It's important not to whistle a foul every time a player winds up on the ground. It simply encourages diving. There were a few notable times when it seemed very reasonable for Chesky to allow play to continue. eg
    • 5'30 Smith goes down while shadowed by O'Sullivan. I see no foul on O'Sullivan, no reaching in with her foot which trips Smith
    • 25'30 leading up to the yellow card on Ryan Williams, Sugita first looses footing while trying to pivot. Seems no contact. Then when North Carolina gives back possession, Sugita holds off Haley Hopkins, managing to get the pass off to Smith who gets fouled while off to the races. Again, I see no foul on Sugita but good physical play on both sides; Sugita does very well to get the pass off under pressure from Hopkins who is simply maintaining her angle and is under no obligation to simply concede the space)

    ***
    Bodies appear to be flying in one sequence in the highlight video, so it's fair to wonder if there should be a foul in there at 45 +3 or 1'30 of the highlights

    Narumi Miura slides in but she seems to simply block the ball; I'm not even positive she commits a foul, but maybe she keeps her boot up too high, too long. I don't know. At any rate, Chesky has a foul there but doesn't blow the whistle because she plays the advantage — and it ends up in a hard shot by Sophia Smith that Murphy has a hard time handling

    ***
    It was an interesting match and an interesting first half. I'll have more to say about it later but perhaps this serves for an introduction.

    The full replay is available on NWSL+ for free (at least in the US) with email registration
     
  19. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #19 Jeremy Goodwin, Jun 11, 2024 at 1:33 PM
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2024 at 1:47 PM
    Here's an ELO rating list through 82 games (current season games only, excludes the challenge cup game, initial rating for all teams 1500, max change 50 points):
    Code:
    Orlando    1648 (+148)
    KC         1614 (+114)
    Washington 1605 (+105)
    Gotham     1586 (+ 86)
    Portland   1578 (+ 78)
    Louisville 1532 (+ 32)
    San Diego  1478 (- 22)
    Houston    1456 (- 44)
    Angel      1449 (- 51)
    Chicago    1442 (- 58)
    NC         1440 (- 60)
    Bay        1440 (- 60)
    Seattle    1395 (-105)
    Utah       1337 (-163)
    Feel free to check that scores are entered properly, I just threw this together (based on https://www.excelforum.com/excel-new-users-basics/683234-elo-ranking.html#post2092356)
     

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  20. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And here's an imputed strength of schedule from the same data, just the average of the expected result for all games (higher = have been expected to win more games i.e. easier, so every game is hard if you're crap)
    Code:
    KC         0.642 
    Orlando    0.586 
    Washington 0.575 
    Chicago    0.556 
    Gotham     0.523 
    NC         0.517 
    San Diego  0.497 
    Portland   0.495 
    Louisville 0.488
    Angel      0.456 
    Houston    0.449 
    Bay        0.432 
    Utah       0.396 
    Seattle    0.385 
     
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  21. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Interesting start! I do love the Elo family of rankings, especially since it is a family of calculations instead of a single computation. I personally like Elo-based rankings for soccer to include HFA and something more than the 1/0.5/0 result split to account for the degree of the game. And any Elo system, for almost any per-game points limit above a certain amount, is often quite volatile until each team has at least 20 games. I do quite love that Excel sheet, I may try tinkering around with something similar myself to get the extra details in. :)

    Still, fun to see what differs even with the current list! Can definitely see that CHI and NC look worse in that Elo ranking, though I'm sure for NC at least it's because there isn't HFA factored into that current sheet. The gap between 6th and 7th in those rating is also quite large, 54pts directly around the original 1500; I wonder if not being able to hover around 1500 exactly is a consequence of the sharp 1/0.5/0 result divide.
     
  22. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #22 Jeremy Goodwin, Jun 11, 2024 at 6:46 PM
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2024 at 6:59 PM
    It is dramatically favoring wins. Drawing against a much better opponent isn't as valuable as winning against someone of similar skill. I believe the per game change is set to 10 in chess, but there aren't many games in the NWSL season so I wanted it to move around more (preference).
     
  23. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was bored, so I put together a file with all the WUSA, WPS, WPSL Elite, and NWSL games, and a franchise history. One might use it to enhance the team rankings.

    There's still a gap in the record between WUSA and WPS in the Washington Freedom timeline, they went into exhibition mode then joined the W-league for a while before WPS. WPSL Elite is already kind of barely a top flight league, and I didn't want to go any deeper than that.
     

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  24. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Added HFA factor and a few years of history (post COVID). It's a fairly small impact, in 2022 it was almost zero, but in 2021, 2023, 2024 it's in the 7-10% range.

    Code:
    Team                  Open Current Change
    NJ/NY Gotham FC       1532   1571   + 39
    Kansas City Current   1495   1568   + 73
    Portland Thorns FC    1534   1560   + 26
    Washington Spirit     1488   1555   + 67
    Orlando Pride         1426   1534   +108
    Racing Louisville     1484   1501   + 17
    NC Courage            1529   1498   - 31
    San Diego Wave FC     1496   1482   - 14
    Angel City FC         1512   1477   - 35
    Seattle Reign FC      1556   1471   - 85
    Houston Dash          1475   1465   - 10
    Bay FC                1500   1460   - 40
    Chicago Red Stars     1473   1458   - 15
    Utah Royals           1500   1400   -100
     

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  25. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #25 kolabear, Jun 12, 2024 at 1:31 PM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2024 at 1:43 PM
    I didn't want to get in the way of an interesting discussion on Elo ratings unfolding but now that it's established itself, I'd like to return to a point about the refereeing in Portland/North Carolina (CR: Danielle Chesky).

    I mentioned what I call (for want of a better word) the Aesthetic Test. Perhaps we can call it the Tactical Analysis Test or Tactical Imperative, meaning is a referee letting one team get away with such negative cynical tactics that it's preventing their opponents from showing what they can do, or whether in waching the game, the emphasis is where it should be — on how good the players are, how well they're playing, and whether the game invites us to attempt more sophisticated tactical analysis.
    What I'm suggesting is that you can look at any 5 to 10 minute segment of Portland / North Carolina and sit therer appreciating the quality of the game and the battle of talents and tactics. Sure in every 5 to 10 minute segment, there's players doing a couple naughty things

    Since Portland is doing the accusing and North Carolina is the accused, let's point out this, North Carolina gains possession several times by clean interceptions; and then the possess and move the ball well, progressing through midfield. Portland has their opportunities, too — usually with Sophia Smith on the end of it, which is how Portland wants it — and she gets off shots or attempts at dribbling to the box or winning corners.
    This is the kind of game where I expect to sense frustration on the part of Portland's fans (mainly in other parts of the internet; not so much here at BigSoccer where the Portland fans, as with the rest of the fans, are notably more sophisticated than elsewhere on the internet — tee-hee!) because they're not dominating a game they expect to win easily, at least at home. Who the bloody hell is North Carolina anyway, especially since Kerolin is out with a long term injury?

    If Portland isn't winning by 2 goals at half time or at least have or 6 shots that should be goals, then North Carolina must be doing mean things to them that mean Denise O'Sullivan, all 100 pounds of her, should've earned a red card by now for all her attempts to injure Portland players.

    Sorry, it's horse-pucky.That's the funny thing about North Carolina this season. They can't score but they're still a fundamentally good team

    ***
    It's not just one way either. Two of the hardest challenges early in the game came from Portland's Kelly Hubly. In the first couple minutes, she comes up from behind to challenge for a header near midfield and sends Haley Hopkins flying, and Hopkins is a big girl (about 1'10 on the game clock)

    Then there was the hard sliding tackle in the box by the endline on Tyler Lussi (about 22'45 Nice foray by Malia Berkeley, by the way, all the way up from her center back position to Portland's 18 yard box). I understand it's a play where defenders are given more latitude as long as they get the ball — because of course we don't want to call penalties left and right — but it's an interesting play to talk about sometime because not only is it a hard tackle but my initial impression was that Hubly almost scissored Lussi's leg.

    But we understand it's almost never going to be called a penalty — and the challenge on Hopkins was so early in the match — so Portland gets a pass in terms of who's making hard tackles and in terms of setting the tone for physical play
     

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