Numbers/Fax Times

I got confirmation 83xx - arrived at 9:42 on Tuesday UPS

I am screwed badly.

 

Have any of the 9:43 am fedex people got an email yet? Im waiting till noon and probably calling.

 

I was a 9:42 fedex and got my confirmation # this morning: 86xx. It was for two tickets to Ghana and two to the round of 16.

 

>>I'm not so sure - I'd be willing to say I am 70% certain that the numbers 1000-9999 are ticket numbers.

It makes no sense whatsoever that the confirmation numbers are related to the quantity of tickets ordered. They are simply a method to put the orders in their 'first come, first served' queue, so they begin placing the orders (probably after 1/1). The number of tickets available is a fixed number. They will start filling orders and charging credit cards with the orders they have deemed as 'first come'. As credit cards transactions get approved, those tickets will be allocated, and the total number will decrease by that amount. If there's a glaring error on an order form, those orders will probably go unplaced.

 

The confirmation number is NOT based on the number of tickets ordered. If so, we'd see a relatively random distribution in the hundreds place of each number. Instead, we see that only these numbers for the first two places have been reported

10, 13
20
30
40
50
60, 61
80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87

So my guess is that they put in confirmation numbers generally based on when the order was received, but they skip a bunch of numbers. For example, the first 100 orders may have been 1001-1099, 2nd 100 orders were 1300-1399, third hundred were 2001-2099, etc. If that's the case, then there have been (at most) about 800 Monday fax orders (10xx, 13xx, 20xx, 30xx, 40xx, 50xx, 60xx, 61xx). Although few are reporting a number in the tens place higher than 5 on the 10xx-60xx numbers (although if someone has a number like that they should post it). If that's the case, then there were probably 500 or so fax orders. So my guess is that they got approx. 500-800 Monday orders.

Tuesday orders (the majority being mail) seem to be getting numbers pretty straightforwardly. If so, then there have been about 6-700 processed mail orders.

That's my guess. As for what this means re: tickets, it depends on a lot of things (how many people were on each application, what games were ordered, what category was ordered, whether you checked off the box saying that you would move up a category, etc.) But this seems like it's a reasonable explanation for the confirmation numbering system.

 

I've said it before and been called names, but show me the letter from US Soccer that says that these confirmation numbers have anything to do with first come-first served. A confirmation number is a not a "date & time received" stamp. It is just an identification number (and an imprecise one, at that), which may not actually correspond with the sequence in which the documents were received---hence the irregularities in your statistical analyses.

The sequence of confirmation numbers may just be coincidental. Or you could have 5 people logging in applications, each person with their own string of confirmation numbers. 1000's for one person, 2000's for another person, etc. There's no guarantee that the confirmation numbers mean anything except that they got your application.

Until someone talks to US Soccer and US Soccer says "if you have a low confirmation number, you're screwed, because we only are giving tickets to confirmation numbers 1000-2000," or something like that, you're probably getting yourself all worked up over nothing. What people should be worried about is whether they got their application in as early as they could---not whether they're 70 percent psychic and can attach some supposed value to these confirmation numbers.

 

I couldn't agree more. Just got another confirmation for a fedex delivery - 885x.

DCM, if you really believe that this pattern could be coincidence, then I pray for the future of the human race that your genes are never passed on.

 

Well, I'm worried about that, as well. Believe me, I tried.

 

I have no idea why they chose the numbering system they used...it's very possible that there are some 11xx and 12xx applications out there that haven't been reported. My guess is that at various points in the process, they'd jump to the next group of thousands for confirmation number. Why? I have no clue. But it seems to make sense from the sample that's been reported.

The main reason for posting this idea is so people in the 8xxx don't freak out yet. I would guess that there are about 500-800 applications that got in via fax on Monday. If so, then there are likely still a good number of tickets available for applications that arrived via mail on Tuesday.

 

Fax received at 5:30 CT, Confirm No. 20xx.

 

Sheesh. Nice to meet you, too.

Yes, I too was stretching it with my "coincidence" argument, but consider my point:

It is not possible to find a connection between (1) a confirmation number and (2) certainty, or even a probability that you'll have a ticket in your hand a couple months from now. The fact remains, you don't know how many tickets are available in total, let alone in each price category. You don't know how many people ordered how many tickets in each price category. You don't know how many people checked the box that says they'll take whatever is available if they don't get their first choice. You don't know whether there are 80, 800, or 8000 confirmation numbers issued so far, because you only personally know of 40 or so. There's a lot you don't know, and because of that, all this analysis of confirmation numbers isn't getting you a whole lot closer to figuring out whether you're going to get a ticket or not.

What led me to respond to this thread is the people saying, "oh, I'm fvcked, my number is 805x!," when none of you have any real reason to believe that you're late to the table. People were all worried about not getting tickets in the Sams Army section for the Mexico match, but how many of the people who responded in a timely fashion---meaning within the first day or two---how many of those people didn't get tickets?

I consider myself to be a big soccer fan, and I know a lot of others who are big fans, but who weren't chomping at the bit for these tickets. I'd be really surprised if, by sending my application UPS and it getting to US Soccer 20 hours after the order form was available, that I was beaten out by 3000 faxes. For one USSF could not have handled that, and for two, there just aren't that many people in line for these tickets. When someone comes out and says "US Soccer got 10,000 applications, and if you got a confirmation with 805x, that means your number 8050 in line"---well then it's pretty unlikely that you're going to get a ticket.

I personally think some of you are all worked up over nothing. I think it makes sense to look at the numbers, but I'm not sure that the way people are looking at them makes sense. That's certainly a reason to wish me not to procreate. Thanks for that, really.

 

I just started a simple poll to ask how many people got their fax through on Monday.

If people respond, it may give a hint of the fax applicant to fed ex applicant ratio among this group.

Vote in the poll and perhaps we can see another trend.

 

Yanno that is one thing i have to credit in the end... I don't know anyone that got denied for Sam's Army against Mexico.

 

Fair enough.

Yes, this is where it gets sketchy. There are just too many unknowns to do any division yet. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate your effort to do the math, I just think it's all fruitless when we don't really know how many tickets went on sale to the public. They say 8%, but how many of those will stay with USSF or go to sponsors or Dr. Bob's friends and family? No one ever said 8% will actually be made available to the public. They just said FIFA gives 8% to the USSF. We really don't know what we're dealing with...

 

Confirmation Number 91XX.

Was on the 7:09am FEDEX truck.

 

transmitted 12/12/2005 11:56 PM EST

#62XX

 

Just in:

Confirmation 906x. Mine was on the 9:42 UPS Truck.

 

Mine was on the same truck and is 897X.

 

Has anyone asked what the numbers mean on the phone yet?

And Im really starting to sweat now.

 

86XX

I'm not sure what time it got there. I sent it overnight with USPS and they said it would be there by noon Tuesday, so my guess is it got there around 11. I waivd the signature because I thought that might speed it up.

 

No, but I sent an e-mail. Will let you know if I get anything back.