Now taking bets on the next world superpower...

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Caesar, Nov 23, 2004.

  1. Caesar

    Caesar Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 3, 2004
    Oztraya
    Idle speculation, of course, based on the assumption (some may say tenuous) that at some point in the distant future the US will inevitably go the way of all the historical world powers.

    Just for fun. And perhaps bragging rights a few centuries down the track.
     
  2. Bob Morocco

    Bob Morocco Member+

    Aug 11, 2003
    Billings, MT
    I'm hoping the Vulcans land in the next 20 years or so because if the one world government starts when we're not number one it could suck, oh wait if the EU or Canada was number one that wouldn't be that bad.
     
  3. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

    May 6, 1999
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    China if they can keep it together.
     
  4. dreamer

    dreamer Member

    Aug 4, 2004
    United States, for another 100 years at least.
     
  5. Lemieux

    Lemieux Member

    Aug 19, 2000
    Baltimore Federal Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Australia...just kidding. China probably but not in my lifetime. The US will still be a superpower as well though. Europe/ Eu would rather collect 7 weeks of vacation a year than be competitive.
     
  6. Attacking Minded

    Attacking Minded New Member

    Jun 22, 2002
    China but they won't keep it together. I'd say India because of the political stability and the population growth outpaces China but they don't match the Chinese's ability to get things done.
     
  7. |--LdC--|

    |--LdC--| New Member

    Nov 16, 2003
    Lisboa/Portugal
    Obviously China, probably in the next 25 to 50 years, the same for Europe when we convert to federation... probably in the same time.
    On another note, i also think that the Aliens will come to pay us a visit probably in the next 10 to 15 years, hoppefully they will choose to land in Portugal and once again rule the World from here...
     
  8. Daksims

    Daksims New Member

    Jun 27, 2001
    Colorado
    Bolivia definitely.
     
  9. Chicago1871

    Chicago1871 Member

    Apr 21, 2001
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    India...maybe in the next 50 years.
     
  10. 352klr

    352klr Member

    Jan 29, 2001
    The Burgh of Edin
    I'd have to say there's too many seperate interests for the EU to become a super-power in the next 50 years. Economically, sure, they'll have a lot of clout, but militarily, that ain't gonna happen. Why do you think the EU wants to accomplish anything militarily, it automatically turns to a NATO mission? For a nice example of why the EU isn't going to be a military super-power as well as how varying their interests still are, look at how difficult it was to build the Euro-fighter.

    Everyone says China or India will be the next superpower, but I think their populations are just too large to create the necessary stability that a superpower needs. I think the days of the superpower and bipolarity are gone for a while. There will be great powers, but when the US wanes from Superpower to greatpower, it will be alongside the EU, China and India.
     
  11. Claymore

    Claymore Member

    Jul 9, 2000
    Montgomery Vlg, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Germany. The Hun will awaken and France will once again become a nice vacation spot for German officers.
     
  12. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    India's population growth works against them. They already have more than enough people to be a superpower. China will likely be a superpower, but it will take around 50 years of econonic growth.

    The United States will be a superpower for the foreseeable future.
     
  13. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Liechtenstein. Postage stamps will be the currency of the next century, once the dollar, euro, and the yen all sputter out.
     
  14. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    Correct.
     
  15. VFish

    VFish Member+

    Jan 7, 2001
    Atlanta, GA
    Club:
    Atlanta
    Grand Fenwick
     
  16. |--LdC--|

    |--LdC--| New Member

    Nov 16, 2003
    Lisboa/Portugal
    I agree with you in almost everything, but 50 years its a lot of time, 50 years ago Europe was still recovering, Comunism was growing and look what changed!
    One thing we shouldn´t forget about Europe is that we have centuries and centuries of terrible wars and most of them occured in our soil, one thing the Europeans and EU don´t want is more wars, more political problems we want stability and economic growth.
    No one knows if Europe will ever assume the main role in world affairs, like it happened in the past, probably isn´t "our" main interest right now... and certainly USA are the only real Superpower at the moment with the capability of doing it, but things change and in the next 50 years i see Asia and at least North Africa developing fast and by then the importance of Europe and UE will grow even more IMO, one thing we couldn´t change is the geographical positon of our nations.
    About India i have my doubts, but China i am certain that they will achieve this objective in the next 25 to 50 years, they are catching up the economic growth slowly and will continue to do so, because the Chinese perspective of time is differet from ours westerners, they think at 25 ,50 to 100 years time while we think 5,10 to 15 years time.
     
  17. |--LdC--|

    |--LdC--| New Member

    Nov 16, 2003
    Lisboa/Portugal
    I have a theory about India´s population growth, they don´t care much about their population because when they look west they see an Eastern Africa alongside the ocean with enormous territories and small populations waiting to be occupied... there are millions of Indians arround the world and the number will grow more in the future.
     
  18. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    China has had a bad couple of centuries but they are back.

    They are not yet a superpower, but they will be one. My only hope is that they continue economic liberalization and more importantly have real political liberalizaiton.
     
  19. dreamer

    dreamer Member

    Aug 4, 2004
    If they stay the course they're on now, China could be a strong power in 50 years. But not a super power. The rate of progress is great. But the base is too small.

    The United States will be the sole super power for the foreseeable future, barring any self-inflicted disasters.

     
  20. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    China's economy has been growing at around 8%. To put that number in perspective: 1.08^50=46.9

    Their GDP per capita is about 1/6 of western Europe (arguably higher, but I'm being conservative). If western Europe grows at 2%, China will only need to grow at around 5.5-6% to catch up. A country of 1.2B+ with the GDP per capita of western Europe would be an unqualified superpower.
     
  21. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The EU. Our increasing belligerence and unilateralness, combined with Bush's budget deficits undermining the dollar's value as the international standard, will creat this.

    Or India. India is a democracy, China is not, so India has a huge, huge advantage.
     
  22. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right, but they can't keep growing at that rate generation after generation. Nobody ever has. They won't be the first in world history.
     
  23. dreamer

    dreamer Member

    Aug 4, 2004

    The rule of large number will come into play at some point. When the base gets big enough, the growth rate will get smaller.

    And don't confuse money with power. A country has to be the trend setter in ideology, military, technology, culture, etc. in order to be a real super power like the United States. China is currently no where near the top in all those areas except may be arguably culture. It will take a lot longer than 50 years for them to even have a shot at being a super power. When people want to move to China instead of out of China then we can reconsider.
     
  24. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    No doubt, but as I've noted above, the growth rate can fall considerably and China will still be a monumental economic power.
     
  25. dreamer

    dreamer Member

    Aug 4, 2004

    Economic power agree. Super power no.
     

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