November Elections - Predictions

The only prediction I'll make is that there will be another skrew-up in Broward and Miami-Dade again....

 

Bush wouldn't cry if the Dems both took the House and kept the Senate.

My guess is that neither house flips. There aren't enough truly competitive House races to make a difference, and extra seats through redistricting went to the South, which is increasingly Republican. For the Senate, there are maybe six really competitive races: NJ, MN, LA, MO (all Dem controlled); NH, and SC (both GOP). I'd guess that only Landrieu in Louisiana loses for the Democrats but they pick up NH, so it's a wash and stays at 50-49-1.

Democrats will gain governorships. Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Michigan could all flip. Republicans might be able to take Alabama. Pataki in NY will also face a battle because of Tom Golisano, a right-wing billionaire who's running on a third-party ticket and seems to have it in for Pataki.

 

You don't think Torricelli in NJ is in trouble?

 

I'd love to predict a Democratic landslide, but I don't want to jinx it.

I'd also love to predict Gray Davis out on his ass, but that would mean Bill Simon as governor of California. The time has come for "none of the above."

 

I said in my post that that was a competitive race. But ultimately NJ is going more Democratic, and people will hold their noses and re-elect Torricelli. Forrester has to tell people who he is, not just that he's not Robert Torricelli.

 

You can add Texas to that list, where Ron Kirk and John Cornyn are battling for Gramm's vacated seat.

 

Well, let's not forget how redistricting has already forced some vets to face off and lightened the herd a tad. Will this play into anything or will it even out for both parties?

 

It's a state by state thing. Look at which party controls the state's House of rep since the divide up the districts.

 

I am going to predict that Gray Davis is thrown out on his ass and Bill Simon will be the new governor of California. I've seen private polls which show the race MUCH TIGHTER than popular belief. This is my upset special...the race is trending in Simon's favor.

 

Not here in NC. The Dems control both houses, but the Reeps sued, and judge shopped till they found a Helms protege. He threw out the Dems' map (perhaps justified, I ain't no constitutional lawyer), and drew his own map that pretty much followed the Reeps' map (completely unjustified, a more naked abuse of judicial power than the Supremes in Gore v. Bush.)

 

"Private polls"? As in, polls taken at RNC HQ? If Simon had a "private" poll that showed him close it'd be released in order to give him some momentum, which now he has none.

Davis may be a crook and/or a fool, but Simon is so far to the right that he's in Nevada. Won't fly in CA.

 

As a staunch conservative who lives in the liberal hole of California, I must sadly tell you how wrong you are gonna be. Davis in a landslide.

 

I'll resist responding to the hyperbole, but NC has a bit of a past when it comes to gerrymandering, so that doesn't help matters. (Didn't they get rid of the infamous I-85 gerrymander a few years back?)

Seriously, though, have you seen any polls on the Bowles - Dole race?

 

Allow me to educate you a little bit. NC is approx. 22% black, 3% Indian. At the time, we were entitled to 12 Representatives.

The Bush I Justice Dept. had come up with some new, aggressive theories on majority minority districts (districts where a majority of district's voters were minorities.) It was no longer a matter of avoiding the spreading out of minority voters. A legislature had to actively seek maj-min districts for pre-clearance.

Up to a point, I agree with them. In NC, to me, the right and fair thing to do would have been to create a maj-min district in northeastern NC, where you could draw a decent looking district. But the Bushies looked at the 25% minority population, and demanded 2 maj-min districts. The problem is, there's no rational way to create that 2nd district. The Dem's plan was to pick up black voters in Durham, Greensboro, along I-85, through Charlotte, and on to Gastonia. It was a stupid looking district.

The Reeps' plan was no better. Their idea was to have a district along the SC border, from Wilmington to Charlotte. Take a look at a map and see how far that is. See, there are many Indians in that area, mostly Lumbees.

To me, the Dems' 12th district made a bit more sense just because it at least was a confluence of interests...it was a very urban district. The Reeps' 12th combined Wilmington-area residents with poor rural counties with black areas of Charlotte.

OTOH, the Dems' 1st district in northeastern NC was worse than the Reeps, because the Dems' wasn't too compact. They wanted to sprinkle enough black voters around to protect some of their incumbents, so the district was bigger than it needed to be.

Say what you will, the Dems, left to their own devices, would never ever ever have drawn that 12th district. It kept shrinking as the state kept losing the lawsuits and redrawing it, getting slightly more compact and less black, but Watts is entrenched now.

The side story is that the Bushies' new interpretation of the VRA delivered the House to the Reeps in '94. Clinton's coattails nullified the impact of the new districts a bit in '92. But in time, compacting the Dems' most loyal voters meant that the Dems won too many races with 70% of the vote and lost too many with 46% of the vote.

Bowles has already closed the gap a bit, but there's a long way to go. I hate both of 'em. Dole's resume is an exercise in hypocrisy. I mean, you have a conservative family values candidate who:

1. Became Bob Dole's trophy wife, when he ditched his first family for interfering with his ambitions
2. Never had children of her own because they'd interfere with her career. I still remember some fringe Reeps criticizing the Clintons for only having one child, acting like they had Chelsea as a political act.
3. Has been gone for 30+ years.
4. Has completely turned her back on her 2000 moderate platform.
5. Is hiding from voters.
6. Went to Duke.

Duke is where Henry Hyde went to law school. And Richard Nixon. Bill Gates of the MSNBC (Make Sure Nobody Believes Clinton) network married a Dukie. Coach K is an ardent Republican. (When his team lost in the '93 tourney, after winning 2 years in a row, he said at least they wouldn't have to go to the Clinton White House.)

Maybe I'm being completely unfair, but I can't help but contrast her personal resume with Hilary's and contrast how that resume is judged by Reeps. I mean, let's leave out the cattle futures stuff. I'm talking about the personal attacks on Hilary for who she is. To me, Dole epitomizes why I don't trust Reeps one damn bit.

I expect Dole to win, but I doubt it'll be a big margin. Senate races here never are; Helms won 5 times, and I think his highest percentage was 54%. Bowles is from Charlotte, and Charlotte pols are death statewide. Absolute death.