Notes on Fire vs Rapids - DC United Implications [R] I've just finished watching the first half of the Fire-Rapids match. It's 3 to nothing for the Fire. Goals by Razov (pk), Beasley and Mapp (where'd he used to play?). The Fire look damned good. Sure, they're playing against the Rapids and, of course, who hasn't looked good against the Rapids this season? Well, there is one team ... I'll give you two guesses. (Hint: They're the only team to have drawn against the Rapids.) Assuming this result stands - and I have no reason to think it won't - then DC United is in a deep, deep hole. This is for two reasons. First, the numbers: Unlike last year you've gotta finish in the top four in your division to make the playoffs. With tonight's probable results here are the standings right now ... Code: [size=3] Team GP Pts Metros 7 16 Revs 8 14 Crew 8 11 Fire 6 9 DCU 6 4[/size] We're 5 points behind Chicago. They're the ones that matter right now if we're going to make it into the playoffs. I think, in order to remain competetive with them, we need a result next week against Dallas and they need to lose at San Jose. If they get a result against San Jose and we get nothing at Dallas then we face them at RFK in two weeks running between 6 and 8 points behind them. And if we don't win that match then the hole may very well be insurmountable. Points-wise, I think the next two games may very well decide the probability of our making it to the post season. Second, and more importantly, the Fire look really good. Granted, there's another half to play and perhaps it'll all blow up (doubtful). They've got Razov back healthy now and Sarachan looks like he's found a formation that works. They've even got Mapp looking spectacular (yeah, I'm bitter). I'm sorry to say it but they're looking worlds better than we have this season. And that's the biggest problem for us right now. The rest of the East has a nice points cushion against us. Chicago was the only team that didn't. They're pulling away now and I suspect they'll continue to do so simply because they're playing better than us. They have players, organization and savvy that we just don't have. I'm not panicking. It's not about panic anymore. But with result for the Fire tonight I am becoming resigned to the likelihood that we're not going to the playoffs for a fourth year straight.
Mapp's goal, along with the two Kamler scored for New England yesterday, brings the "Players Traded By Ray Goal Total" to seven. That's three goals more than we have scored all year. Kamler (3) Mapp Moreno Perez Ziadie
Nobody is a bigger Justin Mapp fan than me. I sincerely think this guy has "special" talent. But, he's very much a work in progress still, and he'll have many segments where he looks brilliant, and many more where he looks lost and naiive. But at the moment, he'd be one goal behind our leading scorer. For a team that cannot score, his skill sure would help. Let's not read too much into the Fire result. Sarachan is a very good coach, and he'll prepare his team to play as well as they can, and make them look even better than they are. But, despite this result, the Fire fundamentally lack possession and creativity in midfield. They will require DaMarcus and Mapp not only to dazzle us by beating people on the dribble, but also to deliver the ball at the right time and on target to their deadly strike force of Razov, Faria and Jaqua (eventually). Plus, they'll need to get long range rifles out of Perez and Mapp, as well as set piece efficiency out of Bocanegra and Curtin. If they do that, they'll hide their inconsistencies in midfield. But, come playoff time, they're still pretenders, not contenders. I believe we have the players in the back and midfield. I do not think our forwards are that bad and we'll eventually start putting it all together. One thing to remember, MLS seasons always seem to have 3 stages. There always seems to be a team or a few teams that jump out early (i.e. Columbus Crew this season) and there's always a team that gets hot in the middle to climb back into the race. Then, the teams that win it all are the teams that get hot the final third of the season. If we get hot, we'll likely make the playoffs, and if our defense is healthy and our team starts clicking offensively, I like our chances of competing. But taking a step back, the best coach in the east is Bradley, and he's dominating right now. The second best coach is Sarachan, and he seems to have gotten some good results while his guys gell and play away from home. Out west the best coaches are Sigi and Yallop. Yallop has capitalized on Spartan's unique dimensions to build a strong home team, and he's now getting results away from home, so he's jumped to the top of the pack. But, Sigi has pulled a lot of points out of a horrendous string of away games. They are in great position to dominate the end of the season again. Hudson has created a pretty attacking team and a dynamite defending team. If he focuses more on creating danger rather than possession, we'll be in the mix. -Digital
Five of their seven goals this season have come from midfielders, and Razov's PK today was created by Beasley. Have they had some problems? Yes, but they are also creating opportunities. All they need to do is finish in fourth place and they're a contender. They're not bad. Our coaching staff is. There are too many "ifs" in that statement for me to consider it as anything more that fruitless optimism. Remember in 2000 when we kept saying "Once Albright gets his first goal they'll start coming in waves?" and "If only we had some luck and got the calls from the ref?" Before we knew it we were looking at the Newcastle win as the highlight of the season because we had nobody with the combination of fire and skill (thanks, Paul Weller) to carry this team on his shoulders.
Final: Chicago-4 Rapids-0 Chicago is up by 5 points. The Dallas game is a must win situation for DC United. No and ifs or buts!
DigitalTron - I think you're underestimating things. The likelihood of our being competetive for the playoffs is quickly fading. Actually, I'll be specific. The likelihood that we're going to control whether or not we make the playoffs is quickly fading. It's not a matter of "reading" too much into the Fire result. It's a matter of dealing with the realities of the Fire result. Sure, the Fire have flaws. What MLS team doesn't. The question is how they match up against us - particularly as far as a playoff berth is concerned. The problem is two-fold. They've demonstrated tonight that they can do something that we just can't do - score goals. They've solved a problem that we have, a problem that you've acknowledged that we have. You've taken a leap of faith and said that some day our forwards will get hot and start scoring. I don't take leaps of faith but that's not another thing. Second, the real problem for us is that we can't wait much longer for them to get hot. We're running out of time because the divide between us and the rest of the East could become too much in the next couple games. There's only so long that we can afford to wait and that limit is fast approaching - especcially with tonight's result. Again, you've made a leap of faith here. You'd like to think that the team that will get hot will be us. In all likelihood, however, the team that gets hot is going to be out west (and we all know who it'll likely be). Why do I say it'll be out west? Well it's not just because I suspect that the Galaxy will get hot once they get in their new digs. Rather it's because there are three teams in the West whose points are in the low end of single digits. So if one of those teams puts together a couple wins then they're back in the heat of things. The East is totally different. Even if we put together a couple wins (we'll actually need more than a couple) we'll still need help from our rivals in order for us to re-enter the playoff hunt. Specifically, they need to start losing - often. Overall, I think in your optimism you're ignoring the playoff structure this year. The West doesn't matter. The fact that there are three bottom feeders out there - Dallas, Colorado and LA - doesn't matter. We're in the Eastern division and that division is rapidly developing a two class system. If the Fire get another result and we don't then we have 4 teams in the double digits and one team way far behind the rest of the pack. That's a hell of a hole and even if we start to get results it's gonna be damned hard to climb out of it. And if we get a couple bad results against Eastern division teams it'll be even worse as they're the rivals that matter. My point is that he needs to do this now because if we wait much longer we may very well run out of time. Look at the standings in the East. A gap is developing between us and everyone else. If it gets much larger over the next couple weeks we could be in serious trouble.
I think a lot of us at this point are starting to think we will never catch anyone in this division.. That of course is based solely on the fact that we can't score any goals.. I think we all feel like crap about it but being realistic, the goals will come in time.. They simply have to with the amount of skillfull players on this side... With that being said, United are indeed falling way behind the rest of the division and this can only be classified right at this moment as a worst case scenario.. But, I don't think it is for one simple reason.. We play good defense.. At no point this season has this team trailed by more than one goal, and that is important because it means despite not creating many chances, or simply blowing created chances, there is and were ample opportunities to win most of our matches.. Yes, we are all pissed off that we can't seem to break through at the moment.. But honestly, it could be worse, we could be Colorado who at this point is simply horrendous.. If it's possible, they suffer from worse confidence that we do at the moment.. I'm not ready just yet to say that after 6 games we are out of the playoff race.. I'll leave that to other United fans to do.. For me, I'm going to continue to have faith in the players and trust that they will break through.. It's not going to happen overnight.. It's going to take a few months to get us back, but in the end, I believe we will do it... Despite the slow start (it's all that bad, we have only lost twice in 6 matches) and the frustration of not getting a win, I think we will bounce back soon enough.. The Dallas game to me is a key in that both teams are really struggling and if it's possible, Dallas is in an even more desperate situation in that they haven't played well in most of their matches whilst we really, honestly, only have the Metros match to look at and say we stunk... Don't give up yet folks....
Benjamin, all very good points above.. But I do want to highlight the Fire example.. Three hours ago, the Fire were having the exact same scoring problems we were heading into that match.. Even with our woeful attack at the moment, I'd like to think that we could bag a few goals at home against what is now a completely distraught Colorado team, which is exactly what Chicago did.. It helped Chicago that Zizi Roberts was out and that Pablo was out as well.. Back to your other points though, you make perfect and logical sense.. We indeed are digging ourselves a big gap and I don't see it improving this weekend.. I think Dallas is going to beat us down there and the negativity will continue to slide downwards on this board and with the players themselves unfortunately... But at some point, we need to have a little faith even when there is no evidence of such faith.. I think Tron was basically just trying to point out that with a compact defense (which we have), we will have opportunities to win some matches and climb back into the race... I think at this point, both Tron and I are over optimistic at our chances at recovering, but I will say in our defense that seasons aren't decide 6 games into a 30 game schedule.. New England of last season is all the proof any of the Negative Nellie's out there need that it ain't over till the Fat Guy (Doug Chapman in NE's case) sings.....
Who cares if we're only the 3rd worst team of ten instead of 2nd or 1st worst? We suck and sneaking into the playoffs isn't going to change it.
being 3rd worst in the league doesnt mean we amake the playoffs, we have to at least 4th in the east.
Clearly the panick button has been pushed by most of you. I think it's too early to panick just yet. While it certainly isn't incouraging, I look at our fundamental play and still think we can be a strong team. I think defensively we're as good as anyone, and by the end of the season we'll likely be the deepest defensively as well. Opinions differ widely, but I think our midfield is strong. Olsen will continue to improve his fitness, speed, and become a stronger player physically as the season progresses. Convey is being given the chance in the center for both club and country, and his influence is growing. Nelsen has proven to be a good midfielder, and he has the ability to score a few as well. Dema and Etch have both contributed. Up top I truly believe Stewart will start scoring goals. I refuse to believe that Eskandarian is a bust, so I suspect he'll contribute as well. Hristo has looked quite dangerous, and Santino has started having a fairly good year. I think the goals will come. I have a lot of faith in Sarachan as a coach, but I maintain that their midfield simply lacks creative passing and the ability to maintain possession. IMHO, they will not be able to compensate for this, and teams will be able to choke off their forwards by denying service from midfield. Unless our coaching staff totally screws up, United will finish ahead of the Fire and we'll make the playoffs. Frankly, I think a lot of you are pulling a "Chicken-Little" prematurely. I may not be Hudson's biggest fan, but if he is judged on less than 10 games this season, I think that is very premature. -Digital
Players Traded by DC Who ARe Now Shining While we are on that topic, what idiot traded Lisi to the MetroStars for whoever we got for him? He looked like Claudio Reyna on Saturday against Dallas. Maybe it is the coach, do you think? Huh?
Digital - I chose my words fairly carefully. (Well, for the most part.) I tried to make it very clear that all was not quite yet lost but that time really is running out. So your assesment about us prematurely ordaining the end isn't supported by my intent or (I think) by what I wrote. Indeed, with your last comment I think I can say we actually agree on the fundamentals. We need to catch up to Chicago. I've said that if things go badly for us in the next two games (Dallas and then the match against Chicago) that we're gonna be in quite a hole. On that much we agree. It's about the numbers and they're hard to argue with. Where we disagree is solely on how good Chicago is. I think Chicago is better than you're giving them credit for. That's the heart of our disagreement. (Well, we disagree about some matters of soccer faith as well. But that's another thing as I said before. I will note, however, that in my ancestral faith religious leaders are called rabbis, meaning teacher in modern Hebrew. I think it's a whole lot easier to have faith when you've got a good teacher and, frankly, I haven't got much confidence in our team's teacher.) With that I haven't really added anything to my position but I hope that I have I made it clear that it is a position that is rather more nuanced than you're giving it credit for. It's hardly acting like "chicken little" or "prematurely pushing the panic button" to acknowledge that now we've got a couple critical games ahead. And if they go badly then I don't think we need to wait for 10 games before we can make a legitimate evaluation. That 10 game mark is a wholly arbitrary number. There's nothing that says only after that number is the team mature enough to legitimately evaluate. Nothing at all. The 10 game mark is a round number that sounds solid. It's a third of the way through the season and that sounds good too. But that's all the 10 game mark has going for it. You're being arbitrary if you demand that we abstain from making judgment before the 10th game. There's nothing special about that particular number. It's just arbitrary. The hole we'll be in if things don't go well over the next two games will not be arbitrary. The worst case scenario is that we end up end up 11 points behind the 4th place team in the east. If that happens then I won't need two more games to make a legitimate evaluation.
I believe in this DC United team. I also believe that this team will start scoring goals. The sky is not falling. That said, there needs to be an urgency, a higher level of intensity, a certain amount of passion that needs to be displayed before this team goes to the next level. And what better game to start this than against a Dallas team lacking in confidence. The next game against Chicago at home is also very winable and very important since it is a direct matchup against our primary competion for the last playoff spot. The away Colorado game is also very winable, what with their utter lack of confidence. DC United needs to take the bull by the horns and win these games and get their collective confidence in high gear. I think it is high time to put a stop to excuses.
DC will score some goals this season. DC will win some games this year. DC might even qualify for the playoffs; stranger things have happened. Nevertheless, the best the current roster will ever be is mediocre and, that, just for this season. Next season, the "veterans" will be a year older, a step slower, and so on. At the same time, the rest of the league will be improved. Almost every team has young players with great potential who are now getting playing time. Next year, they will be that much better. New York is doing well this year with several kids in the lineup. After another season, the Fire's many youngsters will be hitting their stride. And so on through the league. Even Colorado -- pathetic right now -- fielded several promising young players against Chicago. Next year, DC will be looking for replacements for Marco and Hristo, and with any luck, replacing Chino, Dema, and Q2 as well. At the current pace, DC's youngsters will still be untried and inexperienced, if they are still with the team. Another tough season. Mapp is still raw. Nevertheless, he clearly has considerable physical talent and impressive foot skills. Physical toughness as well. He absorbed a vicious hit from Fraser and continued to play aggressively. At only 18, his upside is huge. Trading him for Kovalenko may well go down in history as one of the worst trades ever -- rivalling the Brock for Broglio fiasco of years ago. DC's future is secure. With the current players, it will be lucky to qualify for the playoffs this year or next. Of course, the right thing to do, right now, is to fire Hudson and his helpers. They have no notion of how to build a team in MLS. They have no eye for talent. Sadly enough, even with a new management team, DC faces several difficult, rebuilding years, because of the players Ray has given away.
You forgot to add the players acquired by Ray. Petke 1 Stewart 0 Stoitchkov 0 Kovalenko 0 Eskandarian 0 Not really fair to the players to add them in, but Ivanov, Carrol, Stokes and Barclay haven't contributed much, either.
Hmm, I think I'll go bump the "How's Ray Doing" thread again. And people thought Revelation and I were crazy when we said that less then 3 wins out of the first 10 games should result in Ray being fired.
Well Mike, put me down as one of those posters who still thinks it's crazy to fire a coach after 10 matches.. It's not like this team isn't competitive in matches.. The only problem at the moment is goal scoring.. The defense is playing quite well and Rimando is playing well despite a few softies given up to Preki.. I know, I know... Goal scoring is the bottom line and I agree with that completely.. But the attitude amongst most people who simply aren't patient enough to ride this through is that this non-goal scoring trend will continue through the entire season.. It won't.. I do blame Hudson for sticking too long with Marco, but I haven't really had a problem with any of the lineups that have been put out on the field.. We all like the players we acquired in the offseason and we love our guys we had coming back (Marco excluded of course).. But who knew that Stewart would be almost completely invisible for the first 6 matches? Who knew that Ben Olsen is utterly afraid to attack players one-v-one or simply look upfield to start counters? Who knew that Rimando would give up two of the softest goals in league history to Preki? These things take time to sort themselves out.. This isn't Colorado for God's sake.. We aren't getting outplayed in the least.. We haven't even been down by two goals at any point this season and as far as I can tell, only San Jose can make a similar claim... Yes, it sucks that we haven't won yet.. Yes, it sucks that we can't finish our opportunities.. But no, we can't simply fire Hudson and expect the offense to suddenly click.. It doesn't work like that.. Besides, who exactly is out there that could right this ship and satisfy most fans? My guess is other than Bruce Arena himself, no one is out there... As Marc Connelly said on the Soccer Show a few weeks ago (and he is simply the best soccer writer in this country, with all due respect to Will Kuhn's and Jeff Bradley), " Anybody who suggests that Hudson should be fired simply doesn't know what there talking about.." Take it for what it's worth..
that i'm a constant optimist i couldn't help but notice we do have 2 games in hand on 2 of our Eastern conference rivals, which could translate into 6 points (being optimistic again)
Those six points would currently only put us in fourth place, one point in front of Chicago, who also have two games in hand.
As I said earlier, we're running out of time to sort these things out. That's the point I've been trying to make. There are several posters on this thread that seem to be ignoring the table and this year's playoff format. If we were in the western division things would be different. Very different. We could afford to be more patient for the team to come together. But we're not and we just can't afford to be patient much longer. That's not an argument to fire the coach. That's simply an assesment of our current playoff situation.