As I've never been in the predictions business I won't be finding out, will I But it'll be interesting to see the vote share which I suspect will be quite decent compared to results we've achieved in the past... certainly compared to those under some previous leaders. I suspect it will be a bit higher than Blair's share in 2005 which was in the mid 30's I believe.
So what should happen with your leader? That is the worst result for Labor since the 30's. I hope he will do the right thing and give up the leadership.
You will, in the following days, discover just how well the little tolerance I had for your bullshit kept the real me at bay.
Maybe. Probably not; Labour have never had a strong base in the South and Lib Dems have wrecked any inroads they had in the North and Wales with their 2010 coalition.
It's like I mentioned further back in the thread, (and the other one)... if we'd done poorly in 2017 he'd have lost political clout in the party at that point. Now, obviously, that's the situation so a change is in order. I voted for him the first time as party leader because we needed a reexamination of policies because we'd become stale, too afraid of our own shadows and we still hadn't won under Miliband... in much the way the dems did with Hilary Clinton. So in the same way HRC was toxic, not because of anything she'd done, but because of 20+ years of lies and distortions from the meeja... he'd had the same, (and worse), treatment over here. However, as previously mentioned, I voted for the other guy in the 2nd vote for party leader, (his policies were exactly the same as Corbyn's), because he was 'someone else'. So, in all truth, I've never been wedded to him as an individual. I've just pointed out that the circumstances that developed back in the 2017 GE always meant that trying to change again, (they'd already tried once), weren't likely to be successful.
You seem to have gone full-on fantasy mode now. I genuinely have absolutely NO idea wtf you're on about. IIRC you indicated the tories would have a majority of about 30, didn't you? How did that work out ?
Man, I don't think this comparison is really appropriate. In any case, I just hope Corbyn will not overstay his welcome after that disaster. By the way, this is monday morning quarterbacking, but Milliband could have given Labour a much better chance to win than Corbyn.
In the event of the brexit debacle when he was leader, you mean? Yeah, possibly. As you say, a counterfactual that was never tested. I always like Miliband. He was a very decent person and a very smart guy, as were his father and brother. However, the chances of him having a manifesto nationalising rail and water and of raising taxes on people with 6 figure incomes and spending the money on social services and the NHS were vanishingly small. But just looking at the results the BBC are pointing out that the seats the tories are winning can be mapped almost directly onto the brexit seats. IOW where leave won 55+% of the referendum the tories are a lot stronger so the point about it being the 'brexit election' is well made. As labour had to try and triangulate those areas with the remain areas in and around London, (where the precise opposite is the case), it was always going to be a tall order, if not actually impossible. Of course, people abroad of a small 'L' liberal disposition, (which I don't think you would find too unfair, would you?) will think that a strong remain message would have won the day for labour but that rather ignores the fact that the liberals did just that and they have made almost no gains by the looks of it. So, I don't think that's correct. What's particularly irritating is that it was the liberals that forced through this GE rather than have a temporary labour led coalition government to get a soft brexit.
I think the guy's just lost the plot, tbh. He seemed to get upset when I wouldn't make a prediction for some reason. That tipped him over the edge.
The only bright spot in all this is that people are suggesting that a large majority will enable him to ignore the ERG. Whether he's got the sense to do that remains to be seen.
It's hard not to feel like Labour could've been better if they didn't have such a deeply polarizing leader. Jezza's approval numbers are in the tank and have been for a while now. Boris outmaneuvered him.
The split in the brexit vote between the leave north and remain south among labour voters did a lot of the leg-work though.
Right but Boris, from the moment he took power, did everything he could to become the Brexit candidate. You want Brexit? Vote Boris. That was his message, and as a result he totally undercut the Farage Brexit Party wing and took all their votes. There wasn't that clear message from Corbyn. There was the promise of a second referendum in a country which has already, at least from my outside understanding, become sick of elections and indecision and failing to move forward one way or another. On top of that, Jezza is completely underwater in the polls, and rightly or wrongly, people just didn't like the guy or trust him to act on their behalf, so on issues like anti-semitism he got clobbered.That's my take.