Nightmare scenario (or

If we can't beat Panama at home we don't deserve to go. I'm more worried about winning that game but then finishing 4th if Panama beats CR in game 10

 

A lot folks on bs are very confident about the USMNT's future results and the reuslts our direct comp will get.

Not me. Panama will be playing for their first WC birth (I think) on Oct.6th and I could easily see Costa Rica coasting in their game against Panama if they get a point or more against Honduras.

Arena has shown that he can pick the wrong lineups and be outcoahced badly by the other coaches in this region.

 

Since Arena has been coach, what decent team have we beaten? CR minus Campbell and Navas. That's it. We've already drawn Panama twice, and looked like the worse team both times.

To answer the OP question, I would not count on Mexico helping us.

 

We don't deserve to go to the World Cup if we can't beat Costa Rica at home.

That said, 6 points is the minimum we need in the next round.

Or, the team can watch the World Cup at home.

 

That's not entirely true. The key thing is to beat Panama at home. If we do that and only tie T&T we're extremely likely to make the playoff and have a decent shot at qualifying outright. You definitely don't want to leave it to chance though

 

I think the conspiracy theories about Mexico and Costa Rica intentionally laying an egg just to screw with us are a bit much for me.

With Costa Rica, to my understanding Honduras-Costa Rica has always been a pretty big rivalry in it's own right, on top of that The Ticos have yet to qualify and will do that by taking care of business against Honduras at home. You think they're going to risk playing with that fire, even if the odds of them missing a World Cup are tiny?

With Mexico, my only fear would be them sending out a B team who's not really going to show a lot of urgency with 15 minutes left in a tight game. That said a B team Mexico might still be better than Honduras, and I imagine many of those Mexican players would be playing for their own spots on the World Cup team.

I think Honduras's odds of getting 6 points are significantly smaller than ours

 

As a Mexico fan I can tell you we hate losing to Honduras especially. So no the team should not roll over for them.

 

I'm not worried about missing the playoff at this point unless we completely shxt the bed, I'll be surprised if Honduras gets more than 1 point from their final 2 games. I'm more concerned about finishing tied with Panama on 13 points and having it come down to GD. We don't just need to beat them, we need to ideally beat them by at least 2. If we do that then a draw at T&T should be sufficient

 

I don't think it has to be anything intentional. It's just human nature. Come the last game, both Mexico and Costa Rica will have officially clinched. And they'll have nothing to play for other than pride. They'll both be on the road against Honduras and Panama who will be playing for a WC berth. Our mindset should be that Honduras and Panama will win those games. While hoping that at least one of them ends in a tie.

And while Costa Rica has technically not clinched a spot in the top 3, they essentially have. Only in a worst case scenario with a massive swing in GD would they finish 4th. So it's very possible they wont be playing full speed in their next game either. I'd love to see them come out and blow Honduras away at home. But again I think we should expect best case a tie.

 

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They'll beat Honduras at home. They may not be motivated to blow them out, but they'll get the 3 and GD isn't a concern for us with Honduras anyway. A 1-0 CR win is as good for our purposes as a 10-0 win.

 

Not completely true. If they play their B team in that game those players are getting a huge chance to showcase themselves with few chances left in the cycle. They'll want to play well and make a difference.

 

I don't think we will be in the position but if it comes down to Mexico winning their last game for us to make it, Mexico will win. The US not making the World Cup looks bad for the entire confed. I'm sure FMF will monitor the scores, they will remember what happened 4 years ago and if we are good, the MexNT will probably put out an A- or B+ team. I'm not saying that CONCACAF will match fix, but a phone call may be made to certain federations to have their teams to not take their foot off the gas.

 

Mexico beating the Ticos saved our skin.

Costa Rica has to go to the two-game series with their A-squad, because they have not clinched qualification. CRC A at home should beat HON. Considering HON goal diff, the Panama game is basically the one for the last Golden Ticket.

Mexico will come with a B-squad, enough to beat Trinidad at home, but not to get a point in SPS.

 

I don't think that really matters with your WC sealed and delivered.

There'd be no reason for you guys to bring your Euro contingent and probably keep much of the A team at home. It'd make zero sense to risk injury to your key guys down there.

 

Right now, we really are in the nightmare scenario. Basically, we have to get 6 points in the next 2 games to qualify. Granted, we should do that, but this cycle would argue that we are far ways away from achieving what we should.

 

It was a draw.

We don't know what we need. 6 points is the only way to qualify without help, but we could get 4 points and not qualify or 0 points and qualify.

 

Ah yes. Still, it forces them not to go with a B team into the last week, and that's what matters for us. They didn't clinch qualification.

A perfectly possible scenario is Mexico & Costa Rica winning, while we tie Panama. And in the last day, we beat the long eliminated Trinidad (already playing with B teamers), while Honduras beats Mexico's B team and Panama can only tie at home with the Ticos, even if the latter have half the B team, because Panama is like that: their knees buckle under pressure.

That would have us getting #3, Panama taking the trip to Asia, and Honduras staying home.