After a week off due to work swamping me, I'm back. I went 10/14 in my polls last week, keeping me right at 74% for the season. This week there aren't too many "big" games, but as always there will probably be 3 or 4 crazy finishes. Pittsburgh over St. Louis The Rams were actually called "nasty" in an article I read this week. No team that plays in a Dome is nasty in my book. The Steelers front 7 is nasty though. They've kept most of their games close and that helps. Bulger is settling in with Holt and Bruce and things are clicking. The Rams are down to their #3 RB, with Faulk possibly available. The Bus is back and starting for the Steelers. Late game heroics in this one, with the Steelers taking it. Cincy over Seattle This is my shock of the week pick. My reasoning? Seattle is just barely getting by teams. Cincy just put up big numbers on a Baltimore defense that was supposed to be one of the best. Marvin Lewis has the Bangles beleiving they can win. I think Seattle will overlook this game a bit. As long as Cincy can stop Shaun Alexander, they'll win. Tampa over Dallas This is a tougher game to pick than it should be. The Bucs lost Brian Kelly for the season and their defense is showing cracks. That said, they are rotating wins and loses and this week is a "win" week. Dallas is doing great, but can they really go 6-1? I dont think so. New England over Cleveland New England is winning with half a team. Cleveland can't figure out who their QB should be. The Pats may have a bit of a let down after the OT win last week, but the Browns aren't even as good as their 3-4 record. Tennessee over Jacksonville Like I said, McNair is the MVP so far. He'll show it again this week, although it won't take much. The Jags are coming off their bye that allowed Jimmy Smith and Byron Leftwhich to get closer. But the Jags just aren't good. Is Eddie George done??? New Orleans over Carolina This may be a perfect example of two teams going in opposite directiosn. I picked Carolina to lose plenty of games early and they burned me. But I stood my ground that they weren't as good as their record said. New Orleans just got a warm up vs. Atlanta and are ready to make the NFC South interesting with a win over Carolina. Baltimore over Denver You think John Elway could come back for about a month? The Donkeys are down to their #3 QB for at least the next two games (probably more) and they are looking up at the 7-0 Chiefs. Baltimore could have a field day with this guy, while they put 8 in the box to shut down Portis. Chicago over Detroit A nice rivalry gone south. These teams are terrible, making this game a must miss. I'm not even bothering to analyse it. Minnesota over NY Giants Culpepper is back, Moss is a pimp. Stat of the week: Minnesota #1 in turn over ration; NY Giants have the second most give aways in the NFL. The top two teams in the NFL in turn over ration are Minnesota and Kansas City. I'm seeing a trend here. Minnesota wins easy. San Fransicso over Arizona I almost picked Arizona, but I think the 49ers defense will shut the Cards down and win this one. San Fran needs a win to get back in the NFC West race. That catch and run by TO last week was amazing. If he could just shut his mouth long enough to do that more often. I propose that the next time TO drops a sure TD catch, Erikson goes over to him on the bench jumping up and down while screaming in his face. Philly over NY Jets What Rush Limbaugh right about McNabb? Less than 200 combine in two games is TERRIBLE. Philly only wins this because Vinny is bad and Pennington will be rusty with his limited action. Brian Westbrook may be emerging as the Eagles #1 back, finally... Indy over Houston Pretty easy pick. Peyton will rack 'em early, then set back and let the second stringers finish it. Edge James is back, but I would'nt overuse him if I were Dungy. David Carr really is impressive for a second year QB on an expansion team. Kansas City over Buffalo I've seen Buffalo play four games this year, and I'm still not sure if they're good, bad or ugly. I do know that Arrowhead at night is the best place in the NFL. We'll be grilling by mid afternoon and pumped beyond beliefe by 7:30 pm CST. As long as the Buffalo doesnt take the crowd out of the game early, KC has this one with more big plays on defense and special teams. San Diego over Miami A bit of an upset here. San Diego will ride Tomlinson and pound Miami's defense. Miami will do the same with Williams. It should be fun to watch, but neither team will score over 20 points and it will go to the wire.
You can tell that you are more familiar with the Eagles than the Jets. I think it'll be a toss up game (hoping my Jets will pull out another W), and I agree that Pennington will be rusty (Herm should rest him one more week), but Vinny has played well the last two games. On top of that, Santana Moss is finally showing why the Jets traded up to draft him, Shaun Ellis and John Abraham are finally the lethal tandem at the ends that they were envisioned to be and Curtis Martin seems to be back on the right track (thanks in no small part to the help he's getting from his backup). The Jets could still lose, but it won't be because "Vinny sucks."
Because he may be the phucking biggest sissy in the history of the NFL. Even worse than Tony Eason. Anyway, hectic week, limited time, so I need to limit my rants. Pats win, KC rolls, Donkeys lose, not much more to say.
Because he was threatening to break Patrick Ramseys single season sack record. On a brighter note the Skins are only three point underdogs in a bye week.
Re: Re: NFL Week 8 [R] No, I would say that I know about the same of each team and have seen about the same amount of their play. How can you tell, or should I say assume, my familiarity in a short paragraph. You want me to analyze some more, fine. The Jets can't run the ball. This forces Vinny to throw. The saving grace for Vinny in this game is that Philly has been fighting injuries all season in their secondary. BUT, their all pro corners (Vincent and Taylor) are getting back to health and started last week. Vincent made the game ending pass deflection. Philly on the other hand has started running the ball better of late. I think Reid is realizing that RB by committee with three guys isn't the way to go. Westbrook is taking over as the feature runner and this is proving to be a good thing for the Eagles. If they can run the ball, against a Jets team giving up more than 150 yards per game on the ground, then they'll win the game. When McNabb faces pressure he crumbles, and 21 sacks so far isn't bad for the Jets. Although they were only able to get to Carr last week for two sacks. But the same will go for Vinny, and he's not mobile. But Philly only has 10 sacks for the season, they've got to change that to get to Vinny. Yeah I know Moss is coming on, hell I picked him up on my fantasy team when he replaced Conway as the starter during their bye week. That doesnt mean that A healthy Taylor and Vincent can't shut down Chrebet and Moss. If Dawkins can come back for Philly that really boosts their secondary as well. It never helps a team when they going into a week knowing the QB position is going to be a revolving door. The quote "Vinny will start, but Pennington will play" does nothing but hinder the preparation process for a game. Thus, I think the Jets will lose based on the fact that Philly's defense is getting healthy, Philly is running the ball better while going against a poor rush defense, and the Jets have questions as QB.
Re: Re: Re: NFL Week 8 [R] You're right, I should have phrased that differently. I was just irked at seeing someone predict my Jets to fall on so little analysis! I'm a homer, what can I say? Well, again, great analysis of Philly, but some of the Jets info seems off. C-Mart and Jordan weren't moving the chains in the first few weeks of the season, but ever since the bye week, they have been a decent tandem. They have been running the ball. Also, while I'm probably the biggest Vinnie "Interceptiverde" basher of all time, I have to grudgingly admit that his game has been stepped up. He's been making smarter passes, and utilizing more of his targets. The Vinnie of years past would have tunnel vision on Chrebet. The last couple of weeks, he's really utilized Moss' speed as well as making good use of their big TE Becht. The makeshift Right Guard they have been using all season (he started as a tackle, can't place the name right now) has also started to come around, giving the Jets their usual strong O-Line. I respect the defense in Philly, which is why I'm not predicting a blowout, but I do think it will be a VERY close game. PS: Never thought I'd say this, but I hope we don't see Pennington on Sunday. Not only will he be physically rusty, but his last game action was that shelling in the playoffs. I'd rather bring him back against a more creampuff opponent. All it would take is for that Eagles secondary to pick off a couple of passes and Chad's confidence could be shot.
Might as well pick some winners here... Have gone 20/28 in the last two weeks-- but only won on seven games last week after going 13/14 the week before. Carolina over New Orleans New England over Cleveland Tampa Bay over Dallas Baltimore over Denver Detroit over Chicago Minnesota over NY Giants Seattle over Cincinnati St. Louis over Pittsburgh Tennessee over Jacksonville San Francisco over Arizona Indianapolis over Houston Philadelphia over NY Jets Kansas City over Buffalo Miami over San Diego
Bump. As for the Browns not being as good at the 3-4 record...well, I think that is debatable. Having the NFL's #1 passing defense and ranked #7 in overall defense is no accident. I think the losses can be chalked up more to stupid mistakes (partially attributable to coaching) and the gameplans, which always seem too conservative unless the Browns are playing a really good team. New England has not tended to be a run team (which is the weakness of the browns D) and with their injuries on D-line William Green might have a good day. Anywas, I don't think that New England will cover the spread on this game.
So far, 9/13 with the Monday nighter to go. Kansas City looked as overpowering on both sides of the ball as any team I've seen in recent memory. Unbelievable, they were today...
I wonder when people will stop selling the Panthers short? I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding about their last two seasons. Two years ago, yeah, they were 1-15, but they lost an astonishing number of close games. If you looked at their points scored/points conceded, they were bad, but nowhere near 1-15 bad. They just needed some confidence, and a coach who gave a crap (Siefert was mailing it in.) Last year's 7-9 team should have been 9-7 or even 10-6. They lost alot of close games, a few on freaky bad luck. If you knew a 9-7 team had added the perfect free agent for them, but had a dicey quarterback situation, what would you predict for them? I think a realistic prediction would be 10-6. The main thing they needed was to build the confidence needed to make big plays in big games. Obviously, they have that now. If the Panthers had the same quarterback play they had last year, they'd be my pick to make the Super Bowl. Seriously. But Stephen Davis and the defense and the special teams are hiding the problem at the position. (BTW, Jake Delhomme is exhibit 273 in the case of the People Who Aren't Idiots v. Rush Limbaugh. Absolute perfect example of a QB being overrated for winning. I don't sense any great media bias in favor of Cajuns.) If this were baseball or basketball, the Panthers could put themselves into great position by making a late trade for a Kurt Warner or Mark Brunell or the loser in the Tim Couch/Kelly Holcombe battle. But it ain't. Here's the deal...if the Panthers beat the Buccaneers in Charlotte, they're gonna win the division, and have a good shot at the #1 seed, and are a dead lock for the #2 seed. (The Vikings have to play the Chiefs still. The Panthers' loss was outside the NFC, which is good for tiebreaker stuff.) I still say that if the Panthers want to make the Super Bowl, they need to gamble that Chris Weinke will be slightly better than he was two years ago. That would be as good as your Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson types.
I'll be the first to give ya props for the "big plays of defense" call. The 7 takeaways last night was amazing. Although the special teams wasn't so hot. I was pretty proud of this one... while at the bars Saturday night, a friend asked how we were gonna do, even with all the pessimism surrounding this game on local sports radio, I said "Chiefs destroy them 38-14." Nailed the points for the Chiefs, but I, as everyone else, expected a little more out of the Bills offense. LOL... I just like that quote, "1-15 but many of those games were close!" They still lost 15 straight that season and they got blown out in a third of their games. But still... The panthers are looking good and they do have a shot at the #1 seed. While I wouldn't bet on it, I wouldn't be suprised. I actually wouldn't bet on the NFC race right now, it's too tough to tell with Carolina, Minnesota, and St. Louis. If you are complaining about the Panthers not getting the respect, it's simple, they're up against the Vikings, the NFC's darling Rams, along with a Seattle team that people have been waiting to be good for a number of years. Watch out '72 Dolphins, let the 16-0 talk begin. While it is still unlikely because I remember the 13-0 Broncos lost to a pretty bad Giants team a few years ago. But look at this schedule for the 8-0 Chiefs... Cleveland - Win (no probem at all, Chiefs 42-10) @Cincinnati - Win (I think Chincy might pull something out here, Still... Chiefs win 35-28) Oakland - Win (Oh god, let the slaughter begin, Chiefs 42-13) @San Diego - Win (Chargers always put up a challenge in SD, but this team is pretty bad, Chiefs 21-17) Denver - Loss (A 12-0 team going into Mile High has a loss written all over it, Broncos 32-24) Detroit - Win (I'm not even going to bother prdicting a score for this game, let's just say it'll be about a 40 point margin of victory) @Minnesota - Win (I just have a good feeling about this game, Chiefs 42-31) Chicago - Win (Chiefs roll 32-10) They'll likely finish the season 15-1 and get to the Super Bowl. What they do there, I dunno, but they'll get there. But if they can get by Denver and @ Minnesota, it's an easy trip to 16-0 because the remaining schedule is pretty easy. Although those are huge "if's".
Re: Re: NFL Week 8 [R] Thank you on the Chiefs game. I knew it would happen. Bledsoe is something like 1-7 in his last 9 road games coming into KC. He's terrible on the road and gives the ball away a lot. As for 16-0. I wouldn't say "likely" for finishing 15-1. I would say we're likely to finish 12-4 or better. Probably closer to 14-2. I think you're right on about losing to Denver. I think the Minnesota game is a toss up. Depends on injuries and which teams show up. Moss could rip us a new one very easily. Traveling to San Diego is no small feat, although we have more success there than Denver or Oakland. The four home games should be easy, but as always teams tend to lose at least one game a year that they "should" have won. What worries me about this Chiefs team is how easy their schedule turned out to be. Back when the schedule was released, I thought it was pretty weak. Now its turned into downright easy. Only the games at Green Bay, at Baltimore, at Denver, at Minnesota and at home vs. Denver stand out as being against "quality" teams. Right now our opponenst combine records are something like 48-70. Thats good for making the playoffs, but very bad for meeting a very good team in the playoffs. I just worry about a repeat of '95 or '97. The X-factor there is Dick Vermeil.