A UN resolution was passed, and the White House was able to spin it as not supporting war to the French and Russians and as supporting war to the US population. But Iraq, of course, sees through this. Their parliament has unanimously voted to reject the resolution. It does not mean anything, but I think it will set up some future possibilities for Saddam. First, he can also call America's bluff and just say no. It will through the UN into crisis as France and Russia demand a new resolution before America acts, but there will be strong pressure on America to act on its own. But I don't think Saddam will do that. It is not his style to push the issue so soon. I think he will agree to the inspectors. It will take until next February until they will be ready. Then he will let them in but drag his heels at every chance, given the precedent of the parliamentary vote as a symbol of the wishes of his people. Eventually he will cause the conflict, but at a time of his choosing. Our logistics are geared for a war in the next month or so - if he changes the timetable it will send us a little off balance. He will also try to create the greatest friction between us and France and Russia. There are lots of variables in this, however. Saddam's health may dictate a quicker confrontation - I don't think he wants to die before the big showdown. Also, it seems like this will be an El-Niño winter (that is, mild in most of the US). That means that pressure Russia is exerting on us will be lessened. Right now, there is a shortage of diesel and fuel oil in the US because Russia is holding back what we expected them to deliver. If we had a hard winter, the possibility of millions of freezing people in the northeast unable to heat their homes would have given them lots of leverage.
You must be the only person in the world who thinks there's a person in the world who thinks that vote in parliament meant anything.
Iraqi officials stated that they will not comply with the UN resolution. I guess now US has the right to attack Iraq. I say take them out now and make it quick. Sick of this uncertainity.
The parliment is meerly symbolic, but it is useful in the movements, both fake and real, that are taking place. > Iraqi officials stated that they will not comply > with the UN resolution. I guess now US has the > right to attack Iraq. These are both wrong. The Iraqi parliment voted not to comply, but the final choice is Saddam's. And we don't have any more right to attack than before - the resolution does not give us that ability.
I think I am more worried about Sadaam just saying f off, then I am if he complies with the inspections. If he says f off, that makes me think that he probably has some weapon (biological, chemical or nuclear) that he is going to launch at Israel, I would imagine. If he tries to comply that will be best.
You must have left your normally keen insights home today. 1. France and Russia are stuck. If Sadaam refuses inspections, they would have to openly appease Sadaam by arguing for a kinder, gentler inspections regime or that the UN do nothing. Not going to happen. 2. If Sadaam permits inspections, I think you have overstated the wiggle room he has to hamper the inspections. The resolution gives blanket authority almost on the scale of an occupation. Thus, the reaction from the Iraqi congress. His only hope is to hide the weapons where they won't be found, destroy them before the inspectors get in ... or maybe he doesn't really have a stockpile after all. 3. I believe that the idea that Russia can control the US heating oil market is ludicrous. Got link? Love your work usually, though.
Re: Re: Next moves in Iraq chess game France and Russia are not stuck because they know that we are going to invade no matter what happens. Their ability to stop that is very limited. It's not like they can pass a reolution against us (not that it would do anything anyway). Their only play is to wait and hope Bush fumbles. There are plenty of games Saddam can play. I know that eventually it will be enough to get us pissed, but I don't think Saddam has a problem with that. He wants the confrontation, he just wants it on his terms. I heard the oil thing from my brother. I will check to see where he got it from. Given a warm winter, I don't think it will be that much of a issue anyway.
Saddam is going to stall, confuse, and comply enough so to push out any conflict till Summer. Fighting in the Middle East in the summer, espically with the need for chemical gear, is a lot like fighting in Russia during winter. At least that is what I would do in his shoes. There was a report in the Wall Street Journal that NBS picked up on that Iraq is trying to aquire one millon nerve gas antidotes and automatic dispensers for the military.