Next Coach

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by nbarbour, Dec 3, 2022.

  1. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I don't remember.

    I think a lot of this talk is somewhat a red herring -- people trying to construct definitive arguments for their point. Just like bringing up his Scandinavian time.

    We have a lot of data on him with the USMNT, and much of it jives well with Columbus. If anything, the Columbus time actually makes him look better on some points -- he used a 4231, won two notable upsets in the playoffs with smart, pragmatic gameplans, and had productive strikers. But then again, he's been far more flexible as USMNT manager than people want to give credit for as well.

    I don't have a ton of issues with his actual World Cup coaching. Some minor points on subs, but a lot of the choices people are pissed about I understand. That said:
    • He absolutely, completely failed to fix set pieces and actively got worse.
    • Outside in planning is fine but Jedi's crosses are eh and the lack of aerial attack or a striker doesn't sync.
    • Not finding a better, larger break at striker is an issue
    The offense is a problem. I don't think going defensive was a bad move in light of that, but I also think the offense is underperfoming. A large portion of that is set pieces, and a big chunk has to be on Berhalter. Another large portion is striker, and while the options are not good, I don't think the adjustments around were sufficient or showed enough foresight.

    The rest? Eh, you can argue about depth options but our timing was not great. I have my favorites on roster, but I'm not certain about them.

    We simply never got the offense clicking. So I don't mind a lot of the decisions we made in the Cup to play defensive ... but we started from a worse place than I'd like.
     
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  2. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I love Tyler Adams but he's not Kante yet. And I think he's very good, but I don't know if he's ever going to get to that level. Similarly Reyna is the best prospect we've ever had, but for now he just needs to stay healthy and play more regularly.

    Pulisic and McKennie are not regular starters for Champions League teams. They are very good players, but they are both rotational guys for their clubs. I think Musah has great potential, but he is not currently a Champions League player. He's still in the first season of starting in his preferred position in his club.

    This was France's 2018 lineup for the final

    GK-Lloris (starting goalie for Tottenham)
    LB-Lucas Hernandez (starter for Athletico)
    CB-Varane (starter for Real Madrid and FIFA best XI player)
    CB-Umtiti (starter for Barcelona)
    RB-Pavard (at the time starting right back for Stuttgart but has since moved to Bayern)
    LM-Mbappe (FIFA best XI player and the biggest young star in the world)
    CM-Kante (best defensive mid in the world, starter for Chelsea, and FIFA Best XI player)
    CM-Pogba (starter for Manchester United)
    RM-Matuidi (starter for Juventus)
    FW-Griezmann (starter for Athletico Madrid)
    FW-Giroud (rotation player for Chelsea) (this one surprised me)

    Our team is just not on this level right now.
     
  3. MayaDempsey

    MayaDempsey Member

    Jul 29, 2014
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    I don’t think the old playing days move the needle much. Competence over confidence as they say. I like that he wins…and that I expect them to win even when they’re less talented or down in a game. They often seem to find a way. I’m probably biased because I loved the environment at the games. Nashville is the new team.

    The lack of integration of youth is a red flag given where I think we currently are (great core, but with some real talent coming up). I think he should be considered if he’s interested and can make a case for how he would approach winning it all in 2026 (or maximizing the pool for you more pragmatic folks).

    Thanks for the breakdown. Much appreciated.
     
  4. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Personally I'm fine if Berhalter comes back and I'm fine if they replace him with someone else. If I were Earnie Stewart I just would canvass my options before making a decision either way.
     
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  5. ChambersWI

    ChambersWI Member+

    Nov 10, 2010
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Genoa is a team that has new owners, just got relegated from Serie A (though admittedly a long time coming) and are fighting for promotion back to Serie A.

    To me it honestly seems like a good spot for Gregg to try his hand
     
  6. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  7. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    While I do find the way we talk about random outcomes of single WC knockout games as if those are magical higher planes of existence, it is also true that there isn't a modern WC *winner* that wasn't stupid loaded talent-wise, like a historic confluence of legendary players.
     
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  8. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Well, if you sift out the ridiculous (Zidane, Enrique, Tite, Deschamps) ... what's interesting? I mean, make the phone but whatever. Gallardo's in there, too, he's an incredibly hot name on the club circuit. I'd also put Pochettino. I mean, again, hire him, but why do we think he'd be interested.

    Some hard core system guys. Red Bull, Bielsa.

    You've got Rainieri, who's more of a motivator. But a big name and lots of success. Rafa Benitez could be really interesting.

    The Swiss coach is interesting. There's a bunch of guys who didn't make the World Cup (Is coaching Chile recently a plus?) and Bento, who performed similarly. Low would be interesting.

    A few guys I've heard of but know nothing about.

    And Roy Hodgson.

    Is David Moyes still out there? I actually think he'd be a good fit if he's unemployed.
     
  9. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is why I like Cherundolo of the MLS options. I just wish he had some more years of experience running a team.

    I also like the idea of Hugo Perez, but I also wish we could see him in MLS or coaching a team like Canada or Mexico first.
     
  10. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The thing is you can be super talented and have the most talent in the world, but knockout soccer is subject to a high level of variance so you won't necessarily win the tournament. But every team that does end up winning has a ridiculous amount of talent.
     
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  11. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean I'd much rather Berhalter take over for January and March than Anthony Hudson who is the most likely alternative. They aren't going to bring in Caleb Porter or someone similar to run the team for 3 months. Short term extension doesn't mean he doesn't come back either. It just means they don't want to be forced into a decision either way in the next two weeks.
     
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  12. TheHoustonHoyaFan

    Oct 14, 2011
    Houston
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I can say that you are denigrating Porter to make Berhalter look good. The fact is Porter has 2 MLS Cups with 2 different teams and beat Berhalter in one of those cups. Berhalter never won MLS Cup.

    More important is the fact that Porter recognized that you were not going to win MLS with GB's system and certainly not with Trapp at DM in any system. Porter won a MLS Cup with Nagbe and paid a lot of money to buy Nagbe from Atlanta to replace Trapp.

    Now Porter may have asshole personality disorder but unlike Berhalter, Porter absolutely knows what a top-level soccer player looks like.
     
  13. spot

    spot Member+

    Nov 29, 1999
    Centennial
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wait what? Anthony Hudson shouldn't be near a youth team.
     
  14. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The most likely interim coach is going to be someone from Berhalter's staff. And since Luchi Gonzalez is out, I think he's the only assistant that makes sense as a short term interim guy.
     
  15. laxcoach

    laxcoach Member+

    United States
    Jul 29, 2017
    intermountain west
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sensible position for sure. I guess my point is I don't want to make a change and go backwards in the dual nat recruiting business. I'd like to hold that line and get better at tactics and roster selection.
     
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  16. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I'm sure Porter had input into personnel decisions, but neither Portland nor Columbus were like European teams. Both had VERY strong GMs making those calls and working up.

    Columbus' market value increased like 50% when Porter came on. And while he won a title ... he missed the playoffs the other three years. Multiple of those years they were pre-season title and shield contenders.

    And to his recognition of system ... Porter's run mostly the same shit since Akron except when it crashes and burns and he goes super defensive. He just came in and did what he does. And the first year he changed the system, he missed the playoffs after Berhalter made it. Only in 2020 did he do well.

    Apparently it's pretty high variance, and so I can give Porter a bit of credit for that. But I think consistency is an important mark in a coach and Porter's titles are flashes. No one should have that much talent and have a BAD team that many times. Give him credit for two titles but the rest of the time the dude crashed and burned badly.

    He only made the playoffs in 4 of 9 seasons with absolutely playoff caliber rosters ever time. Contender rosters most years.

    The USMNT won't have a Top 3 MVP candidate in the next World Cup, anyway. And that's what Porter has had anytime he's done anything. Diego Valeri and Lucas Zelarayan cure a lot of ills.
     
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  17. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    Yes. But there are often semifinalists that just kinda stumble there.

    The soccer world has a weird taboo around publicly expressing ambitious goals, but to hell with that, we're America. We should be going to the 2026 World Cup to win and accept no conceptual framework in which that's not possible.

    We can't be 2018 France by then. But we can be a buccaneering more-than-the-sum-of-its-parts semifinalist who is playing fearlessly and at home and good luck beating us.

    I think Berhalter's intention was to achieve that idea inside the camp. We played with some of that fearlessness at times. But we didn't get there, something more and different is needed.
     
  18. TheHoustonHoyaFan

    Oct 14, 2011
    Houston
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Schmetzer is a good MLS-level coach that implements and relentlessly runs Seattle's system. Seattle's GM (who just left to Atlanta) has been excellent at finding and buying pieces and replacements that fit their system. They had a great 5 year run but just missed the playoffs and the jury is out on them next year and moving forward.

    Could Schmetzer look at the US pool and design a system that maximizes the pool? Does he have the background that our growing core of top 5 players would buy into, respect, and follow?

    I would say no and no.
     
  19. MayaDempsey

    MayaDempsey Member

    Jul 29, 2014
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    We can absolutely appreciate the talent on this team. When setting our goals for 4 years from now, though, we should take into account that the average age of their current field players will be over 31 in the summer of 2026. They’re likely to still be quite good…but we will be too.
     
  20. MayaDempsey

    MayaDempsey Member

    Jul 29, 2014
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Why? They’ve bought into and respect Berhalter.
     
  21. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The dual national recruiting is for sure going to be hit or miss if we bring in another coach. Klinsmann was also very good at it for instance. Jesse Marsch seems like it's something he'd be good at too, but hard to know with the other guys.

    The hope is part of the role of Stewart and McBride is try to bridge the gaps here. We're probably going to change coaches most cycles, but they're the ones who are going to in place long term and have to keep an eye on making sure we're retaining dual nationals.
     
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  22. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Well, Brazil will have more. They have a 16 year old striker named Endrick that is already rumored to Madrid for $60M+. France'll be stacked. England'll be stacked. Italy and Spain are young. Germany might be back. etc.

    But the point isn't Brazil specifically. It's that teams that actually win a World Cup are freaking stacked. And, historically, a lot of them have been stacked with like 5-6 core players playing together on the same team (less so now).

    And we will not be stacked like that in 2026. We could beat a Brazil, but to win it you need to win 4 knockouts, and it's pretty lucky to get one easy opponent, much less two or three.

    The goal for 2026 for me is this: I want to have a team more or less at the level of this Dutch team. I want the team to be able to play aggressively and proactively, but also be able to pivot like the Dutch did so that when I get to the knockouts, if I draw Brazil, I have a plan.

    And the quarters will be the talent level target, given draw + HFA with Semis as a stretch goal.

    There's is a lot better chance we reach the semis via a sweetheart draw and some chicanery than we are a Top 4 team in talent.
     
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  23. ChambersWI

    ChambersWI Member+

    Nov 10, 2010
    Club:
    AC Milan
    When you look at a list that is unrealistic of course anything else will look worse
     
  24. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The goal of US Soccer should absolutely be to win the World Cup. And the goal of the team every time they step on the field should be to get a result. Both those things can be true, which also saying that realistically we won't have the talent pool do so. It's this weird balance of instilling the belief in the group that they can do it, while also not setting the expectations there because they are not realistic.

    The right draw also helps tremendously. Having to go Netherlands-Argentina-Brazil-France is a murders row and few teams could survive that gauntlet.

    A draw like 2010 of course would help tremendously as it would have gone Ghana-Uruguay-Netherlands-Spain. None of those are easy games, but we very well could have won that Ghana game and while good Uruguay is a step down from the elite teams. And from that point you're in a World Cup semifinal and playing with house money.

    Lest we forget the 2002 was the existence of VAR away from having a penalty kick against Germany down 1-0 and Germany probably being a down a man. Win that game we were in the semifinal against a beatable South Korea team. Of course if VAR existed we are probably in the same position against Mexico that Germany would have been against us.

    So with a good draw and some luck we can definitely make a run. And like we need a guy like Reyna to maximize his potential. And Miles Robinson and Chris Richards to come back healthy and maximize their own potential. And so on and so on. Basically there are alot of things that could go our way, and each time it does it helps our chances incrementally.
     
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  25. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not arguing to defend Berhalter, which I stated when I first responded to you on this topic. You said Hammarby are the equivalent of a Swedish superclub. One championship in 107 years says otherwise. Just keeping it factual. Berhalter got fired 9 years ago from a mediocre Swedish club that was in the 2nd division in his first stint as a head coach.
     
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