Next Coach 2.0 (2024-26)

I'm more performance based, I can live with losses if I think the performance was strong and the ball didn't bounce our way, which is part of the reason why I was so frustrated the past 5 years. Even when the results were strong the performances remained erratic. How much was/is the players, how much was/is the coach is open to debate.

 

Tata took an aging, downward-trending Mexico squad as far as they could go, including finishing above the US in the OCHO.

They have been downhill ever since he left.

 

Agree. I'm sure Hocker has an excellent coach, but he still had to train and to run it. And of course, his PR got a gold; I don't think US has that in their pocket.

I don't think we should expect a PR of 3 seconds kind of improvement. It's possible, but that's a lot.

 

I’m concerned about his tendency not to rotate. However, we will have more time between matches as host country, which should help some.

 

That's all fair. What you're saying about "out-styling" is basically what I mean when I'm referring to an improved aesthetic. Avoiding stoppage-time own goal equalizers against significantly worse teams would be a nice step forward.

I'm also reflecting on Berhalter and flipping through Elo ratings from the past 6 years, ignoring the interregnum. In terms of results that swung our Elo rating by more than 20 points in either direction, we had:

Positive
June 2021 - 3-2 (aet) Nations League final win v. Mexico (+23)
August 2021 - 1-0 (aet) Gold Cup final win v. Mexico (+23)
September 2021 - 4-1 WCQ win at Honduras (+22)
November 2021 - 2-0 WCQ win v. Mexico (+25)
November 2022 - 1-0 World Cup win v. Iran (+30)
March 2024 - 2-0 Nations League final win v. Mexico (+26)

Negative
June 2019 - 3-0 friendly loss v. Venezuela (-22)
July 2019 - 1-0 Gold Cup final loss v. Mexico (-25)
October 2019 - 2-0 Nations League loss at Canada (-34)
October 2021 - 1-0 WCQ loss at Panama (-30)
January 2022 - 2-0 WCQ loss at Canada (-27)
March 2022 - 2-0 WCQ loss at Costa Rica (-34)
November 2023 - 2-1 Nations League loss at T&T (-34)
June 2024 - 2-1 Copa America loss v. Panama (-39)

So, to your earlier point about seeing concrete, measurable improvements, some ways in which I'd be comfortable evaluating that are: do we get more results against teams other than Mexico that can slot into that positive category? Do we just have more positive results than negative? And do we increase the margins in those positive results so we aren't always teetering on the precipice?

 

I’m going to analogize the home country status to the fast track and roll with it.

 

I think right now we're around #30 in the world, with Adams injured again and unlikely to be back to what he was, McKennie not playing well, and Musah and Weah not going through good moments.

The only tests before the WC will be games against Mexico, Panama, and Canada. Otherwise we're not playing anyone WC finals quality.

If we can't replace Adams and can't find a good CB pair, I don't expect us to win any playoff games there. Whoever the manager is.

 

I simply think there needs to be an objectively measurable component. I've seen far too much "we looked better" that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

If xGD increases, for example, great. But the shift from Berhalter to Pochettino should yield more than people latching onto "we looked more fluid" or "I enjoyed it more" or "Pepi said he felt more free."

Twenty matches and 10+ competitive matches is more than enough time to see material statistical improvement even if we don't make the Quarters in 2026. And if we don't, then the aesthetics are so fundamentally unimportant that there's no point in talking about them. Surely hiring a top flight manager should yield more than feelings?

I think the last part is the most important. Just looking at that list, the sheer number of games that turned on small things is important to see.

About half those games turned on minor things -- a missed pen, an extra time header by Robinson, playing a B team and an own goal in Panama, and two red cards.

Two of the wins against Mexico were clear easy wins and the 2-0 loss to Canada in Nations League was a disaster, but pretty much every single other thing there was either very close, teetering on a single execution, or has a very real mitigation as to how one should feel.

Of course, that's the sport. We are at a spot of very fine margins.

 

Yeah, I think there's pretty clear evidence that every cycle we've looked at a guy as an 8 year guy, other than Gansler, Bora (who was always a travellin man), and Sampson. Arena was a seeming lock for a second cycle pending WC performance (and he'd already bagged a Gold Cup in the lead up to WC), Bradley would have had the second cycle if Sunil hadn't lost his runaway bride in Klinsy in '06 and wanted him badly ever since, and it seems pretty clear Berhalter was always hired w/the intention of an 8 year plan.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the selling point here is a 2 year, with 6 year possibilities. Interesting for sure. I'm not anti-auto 2nd term like some are, I tend to think there were overarching factors that explain away failures in previous double cycles pretty much every time:

Arena 2.0 (Injuries, injuries, and more injuries, along with some conservative veteraness choices)
Bradley 2.0 Personally I think he was fine and Sunil was just in love with Klinsy's big ideas.
Klinsy 2.0: He sucked, and the pool imploded due to the '90-'95 developmental failures.
Berhalter 2.0: He never should have been rehired in the first place, and this was the only of the four where you saw obvious signs of "coach player habituation problems" . Team was flat or awful in every single window he coached for at least one game (Uzbekistan, Germany-sort of, both T&T matches, Jamaica, Colombia and Panama/Uruguay).

 

Agree. We should be able to see objective results. I’m fine with xg I guess but I want xg improvement specifically from our strikers. My opinion is that our lack of production from our players up top was based on the way we played and wasn’t the fault of the strikers. We need to keep the ga the same (or better) and improve gf without relying on wingbacks and pulisic (although it’s fine if they still score too)

 

Berhalter took over after a true locker room meltdown at the end of the 2018 cycle. There's a lot of reporting now about what a toxic environment there was in the USMNT there.

Gregg came in and did the right things in terms of completely switching to a new generation and bringing more of a family environment. Turned a locker room people didn't want to be in into one that the guys wanted to be in. Evidence of that is his success in dual-national recruiting.

And did win trophies, qualified for the World Cup, and got to the round of 16 at the World Cup.

But if we want to take the results of the USMNT to the next level, we need a different type of leader for that.

Poch may not lead us past the round of 16 at the World Cup. That depends on the draw and other factors. But we have a better chance than we did with Berhalter.

 

Now, I start to feel that we can be a quarterfinalist in next World Cup. With all stars shine our way, we may break into a semi final. South Korea did it, Turkey did it, Morocco did it, so can we.

 

I love this hire but I’m here to preach patience. In fact, I suspect it looks pretty clunky until next summer.
The biggest issue is that Pochettino has so little familiarity with the player pool. We remember that Berhalter had his struggles identifying who could and couldn’t cut it at the international level, and that’s a guy infinitely more familiar with his pool of players than Poch.
What matters is summer of ‘26, not how it looks getting there. I guess I’ll be the first to say semifinals or bust. Of course I understand a terrible matchup may blow that up, but since this is the biggest event in the history of US soccer seeing as how it’s on our turf, anything less than semis is some degree of failure.

 

Due to the expanded format, I think 2nd round would now be below expectations, since that's no longer the Round of 16, but now the Round of 32.

 

There's no need for a conspiracy here to explain the decision making:

• We don't yet know how much Poch is getting paid, all in, and especially if there is sponsorship money, it might have not all been there in 2023.
  
• It's now just a two year job both in financing and from the coach's side.
• We don't know who other than Poch was truly interested -- we may have lucked out a bit with timing and connection to Crocker here.
• We were coming off a successful WC -- and I think everyone at US Soccer would have agreed, including Crocker. Crocker was new and most effective managers don't come in and wreck the place, instead wanting to take stock, and the players pushing for Berhalter. If the best other option was Marsch...

I think it was a mistake to re-hire someone whose prior cycle was merely expected in terms of results (though with other positives). However, I also think that it opened the way for this inadvertantly -- the political juice to fire a coach would have been much harder if this was one year into the Jesse Marsch era.

It's also worth noting that Pochettino is a LOT like Berhalter in a lot of ways -- big data nerd, positional play guy, play out of the back, player's coach, etc. He plays the youth. He's not a dick though more controlling than many. He fits US Soccer's plan very well.

There's nothing about him that forces US Soccer off of its strategy while simultaneously playing for more immediate results.

 

I think that's somewhat easily rectified. I don't think it's a question of not knowing a guy or not being able to see what they can do. And yes, level adjustment is a thing, but I'm not worried about that all that much in player choice so much as in aggregate.

I think the challenge for Pochettino is that he's like Berhalter (and many coaches) in that he's a guy who is very positive, very confident in player improvement, backs his players to get better, and at club, pushed everyone constantly to improve. Incessant measurement and work -- he'd test saliva and run two a days.

So he's going to come in, and he's going to see a lot of potential but some gaps, and there's a very good chance he holds onto a gameplan that won't work too long, or that tries to overcommunicate or that he stays right up until the end believing the guys can pull through.

I don't think that's a bad thing, but it's far more difficult with a national team.

 

That is the manager's job. That is why we pay him the big $.

 

My area of concern is at centerback and keeper. He has to get that right, and I suspect we’ll see some churn and growing pains getting there.
It may end up being a situation that you and Suyuntuy and others see, that we just don’t have the horses. I don’t believe that’s true, but I’m not confident in that assessment.

 

Home Nation. Pot 1 right?

- Exit in the Group and it is a catastrophe.
- Lose first knockout game and we will be a laughing stock.
- Win in the expanded round of 32 and exit would be a disappointment.
- Win a second knockout game in the Round of 16 and then exit would be an expected run given we are at home.
- Win in the Round of 8 it is a great hire.
- Anything beyond and Poch would be my hero.

 

One thing I’ve read that I really like is that he’s big on fitness training but the players still love him. That’s a hard thing to balance.

 

That's just not true. It's mid-cycle. He's behind the 8 ball in terms of understanding what he has to work with. And some alternatives would have been de facto scouting the domestic league, abroad, youth, + nat'l teams for years.

This is his biggest potential challenge/hurdle for cultivating near the best roster and succeeding the rest of this cycle thru the '26 WC. He can still do it, but let's not act like it's easy. He'd be smart and humble to retain a domestic manager (like Varas), & genuinely lean on him for advice where there are holes in knowledge. While he's willing to do the dirty work in roster-building and keep an open mind about where players are playing. Just ultimately utilize the best performers for his team, after giving them sufficient opportunities.

Historically, this has been the biggest (x)factor in success. I thought we might be evolved passed this point by now. But I'm not confident we are. So he at least needs to get a C- in this regard.

 

Probably, but FIFA hasn't formally announced that yet. With three hosts and a new format, they could deviate from the norm.