Next Ballon d'Or winner that isn't CR7 or LM10 (and when)?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by BocaFan, Jan 19, 2015.

  1. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Due to my inactivity, I left some things unfinished on Mbappe that i would like to close, if anyone cares about it anymore.

    First of all, when i said he is not top 20 in the world that was a figure of speech rather than well thought out thought. In that moment i didnt have exactly 20 names in my mind that i was for sure are better than Mbappe. Just like i am sure carlito didnt have exactly 40 names in his mind when he said that Mbappe could potentially be top 40 of all time. My point is that holding against me that statement is dishonest because it is nit picking. I believe that my intentions by saying that he is not top 20, were clear. If they werent, now they will be:
    What i meant by the top 20 remark is that he is not in the same tier as players that would be considered one of the best in the world (using my previous reference: he is a clear 3rd tier player) Having that said, this is not "i was wrong" speech and that he is indeed top 20. It's still questionable. I would have to break it down and compare him with all the candidates respectively, just like i did with Salah and then conclusion would arise... i am not going to do that. Thats unnecessary and daunting work for no serious benefit.

    What i am going to do is summarize my arguments for why Mbappe is still not (wasnt in 2018/19 season) the top tier or 2nd tier player and simultaniously answer some of the criticism i got for top 20 nominated players (the argument is applicable to other players).

    The main reason why i believe Mbappe 2018/19 can not be considered one of the very best players in the world is his experience, or lack thereof. Mbappe is 20 and he still hasnt experienced a lot of things in football, which i believe to be of instrumental significance. It makes him less of a player regardless of talent. There are several reasons why i believe lack of experience does that, some of which are inspired by recent events in my personal life. You can visualize, prepare for new experiences in whatever way you want, but nothing beats the actual experience itself. I am absolutely sure that every one of you can relate to that in countless areas of your life, be it playing football, meeting people, job interviews, approaching women,.... Just doing, experiencing something for the very first time is of immense utility. Already 2nd time, you are much better at it, let alone players with the full decade of experiences. You see where i am going with it, right?

    What i am talking about can be beautifully demomstrated with the example of Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo, by many, has experienced his peak in either early 20s or mid/late 20s, virtually nobody on this forum would put the 30+ year old version of Cristiano as the best one, yet it's exactly that version of Cristiano that has become the goalscoring machine in big games. I dont have it, but i am sure the difference between goal stats in KO stages of ucl before 2016 and after it are huge. Why is that?
    It's because playing in big games for so many years, you learn how to deal with the experience such ocassion brings and that allows you to perform to your best. Playing those kind of big games under pressure became, literally, a routine to him. Its the experience that transformed his stats. The experience Mbappe doesnt have.

    Some of the firsts Mbappe hasnt experienced yet:
    - a heartbreaking loss (up to United)
    - a serious injury
    - problems with coaches
    - problems with teammates
    - overcoming a struggling performance within the game itself
    - missing an important penalty
    - serious criticism
    - a bad form
    - huge expectations
    - struggling then eventually delivering under huge expectations
    - being by far the best individual for his team and winning a significant game
    - being by far the best individual for his team and still losing a significant game
    - experiencing an opposing manager building his team around him trying to stop him specifically (double-teaming, etc.)
    - overcoming such situations
    ...

    For Mbappe, career has been mostly sunshine and rainbows. Being part of 3 great (attacking) teams. Getting lucky to already win several thropies and having an adequate care and attention.
    Btw, dont tell me that being cared for doesnt matter. Rashford, 21, has more career goals than Messi at the same age simply because Rashford is being spoonfeeded to succeed. Already has 3 seasons with 45+ appearences (but i am sure nobody sane would argue Rashford is the superior talent to Messi). The same case is with Mbappe, "the chosen one".

    So far, Mbappe has been performing under "nothing to lose, everything to gain" mentality, almost always being a sidekick with very unique and useful skillset that his great teams knew how to take the advantage of. 2018/19 Mbappe hasnt gone past that stage. With Cavani and Neymar gone for the United match, he had an ideal opportunity to show he is ready to be labeled as one of the best in the world (imo),.. he underperformed demonstrating that he is not there yet with the big boys. I solely base my opinion on those two games. Talent for top 20 is not questionable, it was whether 2018/19 Mbappe had a character that it takes to LEAD his team to win or not. He apperently didnt have.

    Having that said, i think, with that experience of losing to United, he has grown and surely took his place amongst the best. He will be tested again this season like he was vs United, but this time i believe he will succeed. Why?.. he has the experience.
     
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  2. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
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  3. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    Something to note about Messi.

    2014 was probably his only "off" (for his standards) year in the last decade. Unfortunate that the WC with the most favourable circumstances to win it was exactly during that summer.

    In 2012 Portugal took Spain to penalties and Ronaldo had some decisive games up to that point. Just a bit more luck (which they got 4 years later) and a decent final performances...


    Overall you're right that this is a big factor, there is some trend going on.

    btw. some old example that came to mind of being well rested for the WC:
    Paolo Rossi played just 3 games in 1981/82
     
  4. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #7629 carlito86, Aug 3, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
    Ronaldo nazario 1996/97 and Eusebio 1961/62 are two similar type players who debunk this completely
    What did R9 prior to 1997 "experience" that Mbappe hasn't
    Champions league football?
    World cup?
    copa?


    He was on the bench in 94 so this was hardly an experience at least not in the true sense of the word

    Mbappe at 20 years scored at a historic rate in ligue 1 on par with zlatan ibrahimovic (his best ) and just Fontaine (the 50s)

    The quality of service or lack thereof is irrelevant here
    Ibrahimovic benefited from the same team edge and fontaine played in the era of crazy goal averages
    There is no reason to doubt he will not improve on his return next season and the season thereafter

    A 20 year old can be amongst the top 20 even top 10 players in the world
    Only if his talent and application of talent warrants it

    EDIT:
    Mbappe 18/19 hasn't had experience LMFAO

    He scored in a freaking world cup final at 19 years old
    Is there a bigger stage than that?
     
  5. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    There was a narrative going on that he was saving himself for the tournament...
     
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  6. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    You are straw-maning me.

    I have never said that 20 year old can not be top 20 (keep in mind top 20 is a code for among the best. From year to year that can vary from top 6 to top 18 depending on the compaetition)
    I have never subscribed to the idea that R9 and Eusebio were top 20, nor otherwise.

    I can not speak for Eusebio cuze i am not familiar with his story, but R9 indeed did experience things Mbappe has not, ome of which is being a clear cut best player on the team and actually being successful in such environment something Mbappe has failed to replicate against United.

    I have never said "experience" means merely playing on the big stage. That has little to no effect on your ability to perform. Eder has experienced scoring a Euro winning goal. How much is he better player because of it?

    Experiencing the big stage football from the underdog mentality where you have nothing to lose is quite different experience to playing under pressure of performing and having responsibility to do so.

    When you play against inferior United side in R16. Neymar, Cavani are out and all of your teammates rely and expect from you to perform and lead them forward (because tactics and everything is build arlund your qualities), you bear a different kind of pressure. Pressure of responsibility, which he has not till that point.
    WC, Monaco were all sunshine and rainbows. Nobody expected anything from 18, 19 year old. Its the situation where if you dont perform, its okay, you are young, if you do perform, its phenomenal. No expectation, no responsibility, no pressure. Thats Mbappe's career summed up so far.

    Now, he is just entering the world of responsibility and he has to prove he can bear it before, at least I, would call him on pair with the best players in te world.

    I am not going to call a sidekick that performs in great teams build for his qualities, one of the best in the world.

    If he performed a bit better vs United than he did, we wouldnt be having this conversation.

    When you ask me if Mbappe is top 20 in the world? All i see is him underperforming vs United.
     
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  7. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    We are talking about fully fledged internationals
    First names on the team sheet and you're seriously going to mention eder

    There are always exceptions to the rule
    Mbappe has had a number of deep forays into the champions league where he has come unstuck against future champions and "lucky ole" (riding off the feel good factor he temporarily injected into the club)

    Mbappe has scored at a superior rate in 18/19 than edison cavani ever has
    Mbappe dismantled Argentina (with Messi who was in GOAT tier form in la liga)
    Mbappe has more champions league goals than Ronaldo nazario
    Mbappe scored in a world cup final

    He is 20 years old
    Many solid pros don't even have this on their whole career resume

    Ronaldo nazario 96/97 was unanimously the best on his team because he was competing against a past prime Stoichkov who came back after having flopped hard in serie A

    A before prime Luis figo
    And some players who were borderline world class as Enrique, guardiola etc

    1997 was a very uncompetitive year even if Ronaldo nazario himself was outstanding

    Mbappe 18/19 was the best on his team(a super team with world class players in every position)
    Neymar had a case in the first half of the campaign but he couldn't remain fit hence the reason Mbappe at 20 years old received so many plaudits and accolades

    Seasons aren't made or defined by a single match
    He flopped against Manchester United so what?
    What did messi do vs roma in 2018
    What did Cristiano do vs Liverpool 18 or atletico 16 (both times fully fit with no excuses)
    Romario 94 vs Italy and Milan
    Ronaldo nazario 98 vs France
    Ronaldinho 06 vs arsenal and France

    All failed in the biggest showdowns of the season did that define them?

    Once again you are holding Mbappe to standards you would literally not apply to anybody

    The hypocrisy of all of this can be summarised briefly below
    Eden hazard is a player you seemingly rate highly enough (top 10 in the world on his best days)

    Refer me to a single Champions league QF-final he took over
    Just one
    It doesn't exist!!!

    How is hazard propelled to such a lofty status based solely on league form but not Mbappe
    Explain this conundrum If you can
     
  8. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Recent final of Europa league vs Arsenal is the first one that comes into my mind.. how he did there? Thats literally difference between experience and being new to that world. Do i really need to list big games moments in which Hazard delivered when he was expected to deliver. At no point did i mentioned that it has to be uefa champions league. The reason why i brought two games vs United because that was an ideal opportunity for Mbappe to prove his class in the absence of Cavani and Nemyar. He could do it vs Liverpool in group stages if Neymar was absent, but he wasnt. As long as he plays along side Neymar, he is a sidekick and wont be able to showcase he has grown into a leader on the pitch. Another instance in which Mbappe failed to deliver, in the absence of Neymar and with all eyes on him, is 2018 home 2nd leg vs Real Madrid. But Real might be too big of a challenge so i refrained from mentioning it so far.

    Its not my fault that their is scarcity of games like ones vs United in Mbappes career.
    He hasnt yet deliver as a main man, which is the threshold. Is that really that odd from me to say? Let me just remind you of your hypocrisy. You absolutely denied any of Neymar team achievments in Barcelona, why? Because he was a sidekick there. Its okay when it comes to Mbappe. He single handedly won World Cup, single handedly won 2017 and 2019 french league, etc.

    I feel like you think i was expecting hattrick from Mbappe vs United or performance of that level. Let me say thats not true. I wasnt asking for much. I was simply expecting a mature performance. To see him comfortable on the pitch, taking advantage of psg superiority.
    (The examples youve given of Ronaldo and Messis failures are bad ones because they didnt have superiority on the pitch like PSG had over United. I still cant believe United actually won..)

    Btw, thanks for proving my argument further by bringing Hazard into discussion. I know you havent noticed but you literally just said that i am correct, that Mbappe doesnt have necessary experience to perform as a worlds best players because Hazard also struggled to perform on big stage in first few years and wasnt considered among the very best players. Thanks. Hazard has grown since and beat the threshold which Mbappe is yet to do.

    Cavani is a milestone to become one of the best in the world?
     
  9. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #7634 carlito86, Aug 3, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
    Europa league is a second tier competition and Arsenal 18/19 finished 5th place in the premier league

    Bearing in mind this a team that conceded like 50 goals just in the league
    a calamitous defensive record

    A performance against a team as Arsenal 18/19 will never be the barometer of greatness
    Eden hazard, like mbappe, like ibrahimovic have only been great in the context of league football

    Whether or not ligue 1 has the strength of depth of other top european leagues is up for discussion but mbappe laid waste to lyon last season scoring 4 goals (lyon beat Manchester City
    how many premier league teams were able to do that ?)

    The threshold is a Europa league final against arsenal 18/19?

    Remind me how many goals+assists+pre assists hazard has in the following matches
    World cup final
    World cup semifinals
    European championship final
    European championship semifinal
    Champions league final
    Champions league semifinal

    That is the ultimate threshold for a tier 1 big game player
     
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  10. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I cant explain the concept to someone who doesnt want to llisten. Here is you rep. You won.
    I said everything i had to say about Mbappe
     
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  11. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    #7636 schwuppe, Aug 4, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
    Wasn't this the year where he puked on the pitch?
    He looked liked he had health problems (diet?) rather than saving himself, but I might be mixing it up with another season.
     
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  12. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    I'll get back to you within the next week via PM re: this, but nice to see the positive interactions he had with Cruyff! I said to you via PM that I thought he was about to take his first pole position yesterday (only the final part of qualifying remained), and he did....just!

    Maybe there is some overlap between being in the 'best car' (even if it can be a bit variable in a season), and playing on the 'best team' (or one of the best) in football! In terms of maximising the output of individuals, and having the team success in terms of trophies for example.
     
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  13. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    #7638 Bavarian14, Aug 4, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
    No problem. It's worth noting that in AO 2007 Federer had to beat Tommy Robredo, Andy Roddick (although Fernando Gonzalez was in great form in that tournament) in Wimbledon 2017 he didn't had to face any of the top 5 players. Murray was eliminated and Djokovic retired in the QF due to a shoulder injury. There was little competition from Tomáš Berdych and Marin Čilić.

    Since 2007, Federer has won only 8 slams, while he also clinched his only French Open title against the-then world no.25 Robin Soderling, who prevented the Swiss from having to beat Nadal on clay (something which Djokovic has since managed.)

    Federer’s decline in terms of titles won coincides with the emergence of Nadal, Djokovic and, to a lesser extent, Andy Murray. In other words, his decline coincides with the emergence of one of the strongest eras tennis has ever seen.

    Djokovic has a 6-5 record against Federer in majors at hard court (the majority of his loses before 2010 when the Serb was an entirely different player than he is now). His run from 2011–19 in hard is a lot more impressive than Federer’s run from 2004–07, due in part that he was dominating a stronger golden generation of peak Nadal, peak Murray, peak Stan (and peak/ post-prime Federer) while Federer was dominating what we now call the weak generation (peak Safin, peak Roddick, post-prime Hewitt, peak Davydenko).

    In terms of completeness Djokovic is probably the best returner of all time, has the most impenetrable defence ever seen on a court, he's probably the fastest player ever recorded as well.

    Federer is the best quick-strike player of the Modern Era (post 2000), and grass increases the potency of those quick strikes. What he gains over the other two, to afford him this aggressive mindset in grass, a serve that is easily one of the best in modern era. When he finds a rhythm on that serve, it’s very hard to break him. After that serve comes the volleys and slices, always looking for awkward spots on the court to unsettle the opponent. His backhand slice is wicked on the low-bouncing grass, but the forehand and the serve deal the most damage. Although I am unsure how would he fare against prime Sampras at Wimbledon. Who's serve and attack game was even better.

    For some reason Novak just isn't loved.
    It’s hard to imagine that a man who came through the longest Wimbledon final in history, becoming the first man to save championship points and win the title, is not appreciated
     
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  14. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    Some good points well put together that I was aware but didn't think about and Cleary express
     
  15. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Neither could i say it clearly immidiately after united games. It took some personal experiences to finally click. Then i could articulate my feelings about him.

    It actually openned the whole new doors that i have not seen so far. It made me realize how much experiences/ his history, defines a player. You can not look at players skills in isolation of who he is based on his experience.
    The way someone will perform has a lot to do with who they are in that moment. Its not purely about what they can do in theory, but how they will react to the match moment by moment.

    Its a whole new variable that i didnt think of before
     
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  16. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Dont get me wrong. Its not only about positive experience it works the other way around.

    For example, I firmly believe that Barcelonas players wouldnt have performed the way they did in 2nd leg of the game vs liver it werent for experience of year before. You can not look at players abilities as a footballer in isolation of who they are.
    It makes a lot of sense
     
  17. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    That's correct. Messi was coming off possibly his worst season before WC14. He was regularly throwing up before games and would even have a black eye on more than one occasion. He did admit a while later that it was his diet. In addition he was also going through the hamstring problem that started the season prior
     
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  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord


    Podium finisher for the future. The huge british market and jingoism... 100 million for a boot deal...
     
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  19. thebigman

    thebigman Member+

    May 25, 2006
    Birmingham
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    That’s mj the billionaire trying to get a foot in (excuse the pun)

    He’s American and so is nike
     
  20. pregra

    pregra Member

    Barcelona
    Argentina
    Dec 1, 2008
    Norway
    Club:
    FC Barcelona


    Would be an even worse robbery than 2013. If he gets it, then surely FF is among those getting paid by Jorge Mendes?
     
  21. AD78

    AD78 Member+

    Jul 17, 2013
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Fake news.... most votes have not even been made yet.
     
  22. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    1) Votes are not cast yet
    2) The man in your avatar is a master robber. Handballing his way to two World Cup finals, a UEFA Cup and a scudetto. All but one of the sparse trophies he won rely on robbing.
    3) Messi has the best chance to win thanks to his quality, his playing position, and orchestrated latin bloc voting. The latin vote also gave him the FIFA award, as opposed to the split vote of the other continents. If anything, it is the politically shielded hgh midget with an orchestrated agenda while Ronaldo, Mendes and Perez has been less effective to raly blocs behind him.
     
  23. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Messi was better than Van Dijk
     
  24. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #7649 PuckVanHeel, Oct 28, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2019
  25. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    You seem to be triggered and disappointed that your fellow countryman is probably not winning it. Just a friendly reminder that Messi was indeed better.

    My statements have not changed. Van Dijk the uefa best, Messi fifa and ballon d'Or.
     

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