Next Ballon d'Or winner that isn't CR7 or LM10 (and when)?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by BocaFan, Jan 19, 2015.

  1. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    #7576 Bavarian14, Jul 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
    This definitely comes in mind
    morris-feature-messitired-1.png

    Not saying those who run more has better end product. He easily triumphs over all kind of
    advanced stats
     
  2. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    Maybe it is for some but not for me.

    I am happy to attribute him fault where he is at fault but there are a few things that people are doing which I do dislike.

    1. Is attributing all his team's defeats to him, regardless of his actual performance or contribution.
    2. Is willfully pushing false or myopic angles purely to load the table against him.
     
  3. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    Why don't you try flipping this around for a second?

    Messi has kept Argentina near or at the pinnacle of the world game for 10 years. Maradona didn't, but managed to shine in one big tournament.

    You consider one to be an indictment of Messi and the other to be an achievement for Maradona.
     
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  4. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    Well the difference can only be so great. If Messi is number one and Cristiano is number X (5-10), the gap can only be so big. Among current players, then of course he would be right behind. There is no alternative.

    I don't think anybody is claiming here that there are chasms between them (or Messi and the other contenders for the top position). Simply that there is a noticeable and definite difference in their quality.
     
  5. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #7580 PuckVanHeel, Jul 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
    The difference between 1 and 7 is a larger one than they applied to the gap between Ronaldo and Zidane (Ronaldo placed higher, rightly in my view), the gap between Zico and Platini (this they did wrong, Zico one spot higher), Cruyff and Beckenbauer (number four vs number nine; the former is rightly in 95% of the lists placed higher, a few fluky European Cups or not). To name just three other examples.
     
  6. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    In Messi's case, I wouldnt exactly put too much into his WC14 as I felt he really did his best in the tournament. I also think he did a lot in Copa America 15 and 16. I have seen Messi look content for Barcelona. But to be fair, after thinking about it, they were years were his hamstring injury was a problem from 12-14. Lately, I wouldnt say that's the case, as he has carried Barcelona. However, I was extremely disappointed by Messi and Barcelona in BOTH legs against Roma in 17-18. If you watch the 1st leg its no suprise that Barca lost 3-0 to Roma in the 2nd leg. Barcelona played as if they were entitled and already deserved a spot in the next round. That's one glaring one that comes to mind.
    I also dont think Messi will do everything at all costs to stay at the top as CR7 will off the field. I see a hunger in Cr7 that Messi doesnt quite have. Messis mentality is amazing! But CR7 is something else. That guy will go to the extreme to stay at the top. Which is no coincidence when you think about where both players lie as far as talent is concerned. But CR7 had this mentality even before Messi was Messi. Always having something to prove from the day he joined Manchester.
    While Messi was eating chocolate bars and drinking coca cola. CR7 was eating grilled chicken, vegetables, and drinking water.
    (Though I heard Messi changed his diet a few years ago)
     
  7. Vegan10

    Vegan10 Member+

    Aug 4, 2011
    I know this won’t bode well with you, and you probably will dismiss it as suppositions, but there’s information, according to my inside sources (which for reasons of principle I will not divulge) that he has complete control on the decisions at AFA on who should be brought in as manager and also which players he chooses to approve. Under that context the consequences of any result rest primarily on his shoulders.


    I flip it around and fail to see what Messi has accomplished in the past 10 years that has kept Argentina at the pinnacle of the world game for so long. One World Cup runner-up position (2014) and several consecutive runner-up finishes on the South American/North American continent (2015, 2016) in a timespan of 3 years. The rest of the years have been nothing remarkable with difficulty in qualifiers or getting ousted in the quarterfinals and second round of the World Cup. Furthermore, Argentina has struggled or never beaten a top opponent in any competitive tournament in that timespan.

    In Maradona’s era the World Cup was considered the pinnacle of the world game and Argentina made it to 2 World Cup finals (1986 and 1990) in a row — both on foreign soil and outside the South American continent.

    I find that to be more resounding in stature than any results that Argentina has mustered in the past 10 years.

    In any case, I don’t want to waste your time or mine for that matter, but I think your views are very absolute and contradictory: on one hand you acknowledged that you are not entirely informed properly to draw conclusions about past legends (a field you are still studying) but on the other hand you are quick to dismiss them all and anoint Messi as the best in history. I fail to see the logic here.
     
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  8. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    #7583 Bavarian14, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
    I don't think the national team is built around him to maximize his effectiveness. Crespo also had similar opinion during the World Cup.
    He even assumed Messi would be more dangerous if he played under a counterattacking side like Portugal
     
  9. comme

    comme Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 21, 2003
    With that much power it's definitely all his responsibility. I remember that time when he omitted two of the stars of the Champions League winners and played Jonas Gutierrez at right back. Oh no, actually that was Maradona when he was the actual manager of the side.

    If Messi was making lots of odd choices with the squad then this might be a criticism that would weigh a bit more heavily for me. The problem, unfortunately, is that Argentina are sorely lacking in the kind of players that they used to produce. You aren't going to put all the failings of the AFA on him as well?

    You can't have it both ways here. Either Argentina have been really good in the last ten years and then faltered or they haven't been really good, in which case how have they underperformed. If they haven't been good, what does their high ELO say?

    The ELO is not some measure of the underlying quality of the team, its a reflection of their results.

    I don't dismiss them (I respect them in as great players in their own right) and I don't claim to have the final, complete picture either. I already said that I placed Pele and Messi as the top 2, but increasingly place Messi ahead.

    There are though some things you don't need to have the final precise picture to form a judgement on.

    I can tell you with a significant level of certainty the relative merits of certain players, others less so.

    With Messi, he has been (IMO) the best player in the world in 10 of the last 11 seasons, during an era in which the game has been at it's highest standard. Based on the analysis that I have done, no other player can match that sort of sustained dominance or the pinnacle of his play.

    Having watched upwards of 200 hundred games of both Messi and Ronaldo, I have no doubt about which is the better player.

    Therefore I can be confident in making an assessment of one thing without having complete certainty about another.
     
  10. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord


    Article and thread about tennis and golf. Might have some application to the football situation as well.
     
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  11. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    The funny thing is, the sentiment that you have shared above actually pans out in terms of Argentina's results with Messi as opposed to the same with his attacking counterparts -

    [​IMG]

    Argentina's results with Messi don't seem to be better when compared to those with DiMaria, Higuain or Aguero. I've taken the data from 2009 onwards i.e. the earliest year when all 4 were active for the National team, to ensure a level comparison. Numbers are taken from Transfermarkt, so should be considered with a pinch of salt (especially since I calculated manually), but there shouldn't be too great a variation even considering errors.

    I was really surprised by Higuain's numbers btw, for someone who is typically made a scapegoat for Messi's trophyless run with Argentina. Even accommodating for the fact that he did not feature in the recently concluded disappointing CA'19 campaign, his win percentage only dips to around 65.4% which is still better than his peers.
     
  12. schwuppe

    schwuppe Member+

    Sep 17, 2009
    Club:
    FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
    What are the numbers with Messi and w/o Higuain, Di Maria, Aguero.. and vice-versa?
     
  13. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    They are more difficult to deduce. I'll give it a shot later.

    At this moment, I do know that there is a big enough sample size for each player in terms of them not featuring for Argentina in the same time frame i.e. 40+ games at least, for each player.


    Nice article. Agreed about its applicability to Football, though this being a team game the effect might be somewhat reduced IMHO.
     
  14. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    I think it's generally believed Messi his influence on the team increased from the Sabella period onward, when he was instantly made captain late 2011 (while Mascherano remained the de facto captain). The Maradona period falls outside this although Messi went to Grondona his funeral to acknowledge his wishes were priority from early on (source: a 'The Blizzard' article), and Maradona had the explicit instruction to build a team around Messi (which is logical, but might also inhibit the team at the same time).

    You've been questioning the omission of a Dybala (for example) yourself. So there are perhaps some odd omissions (Dybala, Icardi, Tevez) although you can't field six forwards at the same time.

    There is one clear instance where he picked the manager, and that was Tata Martino for Barcelona, which didn't work out well (a rare moment where an outsider was in charge of Barcelona, the result was 0 trophies, for the only time since 2008-09). Luis Enrique was clearly not picked by him, maybe Valverde was to an extent. Guardiola and (assistant) Vilanova were not his pick.

    Tata Martino did lead Argentina to two finals, but with the odd circumstance of evading all the quality opponents and then beating Chile 2-0 without Messi in the same tournament... Also some other oddities as losing to Germany in the final and then (in a friendly tbf) scoring 4 past Germany less than two months later away from home, without Messi.

    My summary and conclusion here:
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/ne...-lm10-and-when.2015852/page-284#post-37884633


    Each to his own but not recognizing El Flaco as the best of his generation equals to being dismissive to me. He proved it in the World Cup, a performance held above the best level of his contemporaries (european championships included), producing goals against each of the traditional powerhouses he played against (Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, West Germany).

    Alas, that is the result of modern vested interests by football fans in the Big Four (+ South American big two) and while cross-collaborating with a number of germans, spaniards and the likes for the history work.


    As said, there are some problems with the comparison:

    1) For Maradona his time (and others) it might not have been possible to attain dominance. The possibilities were just not there, unlike the Di Stefano and Pele era. Unless, maybe, Maradona had joined Liverpool but then he still would have been banned for five years. There are arguably questions around his shooting accuracy/finishing and whether 'one man army' is backed up by the facts, but that's a second thing... It starts with the observation the possibility for dominance with national team or club didn't exist (the 'single best team ---> single best player' route). There wasn't a club that could thrash a treble side or the #2 team without their talisman.

    2) The likes of Puskas and Cruijff had not a good starting position (Maradona had this, with FIFA showcase events organized in 1979). Puskas was too isolated for a while and defecting as an adolescent is asking the unlikely; Puskas catapulted to European fame once he got to play top sides regularly and was as anointed captain part of a fabled team. Cruijff really tended to do well/great against every strong opponent in the 1960s; he could have scored 3 past Liverpool (he did), produce a goal against a Milan side only conceding 4 all season as the home playing team, and lift the team results up to an incredible amount (the titles of 1969, 1971, 1976, 1977, 1978 etc. were lost because of missing a few games) but he wasn't going to get universal recognition. Bit similar to the Mbappe situation now although Mbappe is relatively not a very well rounded footballer (yet - despite his good support movement on the pitch) and being French is more fruitful overall. Thing is: what more could Cruijff have done given the production and the high upward take generated for the team? (including recognition by the FF vote as top 5 team in the world, even #1 in 1969). Same is true for Puskas.

    3) The possibilities to rejuvenate teams. Often great teams have cycles of five years and then an adjustment is needed. In the past this might have been a problem for Pelé in the second half of the 60s, with also an effect on his universal standing in the world as the single best. Think also of Messi in 2013-14 here (the one year where you doubt his supremacy). In came Suarez and Neymar (most notably), and a new cycle with younger legs started... and with Neymar 'sacrificing' himself for Messi. Also the 70s Ajax team had a cycle, and while I believe the likes of Placar continued to see JC14 as the best in the world (when he played in Brazil, against all star teams), his prominence was less accentuated in the second half of the 70s (certainly by younger generations, on first sight).

    4) I actually don't think Maradona and Cruijff (despite his high shooting accuracy, strong finishing) would score 50 goals in a similar situation. At the same time, don't think either a Michels-Messi collaboration would get the same result (or better), too. Bit like how Lebron isn't the scorer Jordan was (and is statistically inferior by any metric, including things as VORP and PER) but could carry poor and great teams alike; excel in four of the five court positions.
     
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  15. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
  16. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
    Messi with all stars like Ronaldinho, Deco, Eto'o, Henry, Alves, Xavi, Iniesta, Neymar, Suarez and now Griezmann and De Jong had unmatched and unprecedented luxury and contributors for his performances at Barcelona. Of course his contribution is much more all-rounded than someone like Cristiano Ronaldo (specially after 2014), but facts are facts. Santos from Pelé is not comparable with Barcelona 2005-2019.

    Just take Neymar impact in PSG as a example:

    Neymar en Ligue 1 en 2017 2018
    20 Partidos, 69 Goles (Promedio 3,45)
    PSG sin Neymar en Ligue 1 2017 2018
    18 Partidos, 39 Goles (Promedio 2,17)

    Neymar en Ligue 1 en 2018 2019
    17 Partidos 55 Goles (Promedio 3,23)
    PSG sin Neymar en Ligue 1 2018 2019
    21 Partidos 50 Goles (Promedio 2,38)

    That's the average Goal For of PSG in all Ligue 1 history: https://www.thefinalball.com/team_season.php?comp_id=13&epoca_id=0&ond=&id=127&o=

    Pelé never had someone like Neymar playing in his Santos time.
     
  17. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
    Another point: Pelé was raised in the arguably best team in his time of Brazil OK, but he instantly overshadowed the main names of Santos as early as 1957 and 1958 (17 years old).

    That is not the case with Messi at Barcelona, that is not the case of Cristiano at United, that is not the case of Mbappe at PSG (Neymar being ranked higher than him in the last two years according L'Equipe and France Football) and maybe that wasn't the case with Di Stefano at River Plate (on loan at Huracan with 19/20 years old).
     
  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #7593 PuckVanHeel, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
    No, instead of that he played with Toninho who outscored him in some years... ;) (despite being supposed to be the main scorer)

    It's superfluous to say again but Pele had both lesser team mates as lesser opponents (a less stratified development of football, less stratified football pyramid). He played a number of games against amateurs after all.


    This is true but we have to conscious too it were subjective impressions and the possibilities to asses contribution were different at the time.

    Pele was like Mbappe instantly a goalscorer, and that might have been more helpful back in the day, given the status of Santos as already successful team.
     
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  19. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    #7594 Bavarian14, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
    I've seen it before. It completely ignores a key point which is the competitiveness of the game. With him Argentina might lose a world cup final to Germany but end up winning a friendly without him. Also the World Cup Qualifiers comes in mind. Making a fair analysis like this thread might be helpful

    Thanks for pointing this out.
     
  20. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
    Despite being a very competent striker, he wasn't at Neymar level and his role of course was more limited than of the Neymar, probably even more limited than Suarez when he outscored Messi. :thumbsup:

    The only player who had a similar level of Neymar was Garrincha (you can argue about others) in the Brazilian NT, and the record of Brazil with Garrincha and Pelé playing was 36W, 4D, zero defeats in 40 matches where Pelé scored 44 Goals and Garrincha 11.
    https://www.cbf.com.br/selecao-bras...brasileira-jamais-perdeu-com-garrincha-e-pele
     
  21. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    The above analysis is based on the below methodology, although the way in which the % is calculated is a bit different in the above -
    NT Win% Analysis (open)
    Consider this, a team has three or four good players and one great player. So how would you measure how important that particular player is as compared to those other three or four good players especially if your best player is not your highest goalscorer?

    Well I gave some thought to that and arrived at this conclusion. If there is one player among the team who is more important for the team than the rest, then his individual record with the team (as in wins, draws and losses for the team when he is playing) would be slightly better than the individual records of his contemporaries who are all also good players but who are just not as (for the lack of a better word)effective in improving the team's fortunes as him. I also think that the accuracy of such a measure of performance would increase with the number of matches being played by a player, since it is quite possible that a player might get lucky for the initial few games and not play well yet win, but that such a trend could hardly continue throughout a long career ending while playing with a different set of teammates to the ones you began with.

    The results that I have obtained (source -http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/century.html) are mostly as predicted, with players like Pele, Beckenbauer, Cruyff having higher percentages of wins and draws, while contemporaries like Djalma Santos, Berti Vogts, Neeskens having a slightly lower percentage while playing a similar number of games over the same era. Here are some of the results I have obtained where percentage is calculated as percentage = (Wins*2+Draws*1)/Total games played. * marked players are still active with their clubs atleast.


    1) Argentina -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    Oscar Alfredo RUGGERI 1983-1994 97 59.79
    Diego Armando MARADONA 1977-1994 91 62.09


    2) Brazil -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    NÍLTON dos SANTOS 1949-1962 75 80.00
    Waldir Pereira "DIDI" 1952-1962 68 77.94

    DJALMA dos SANTOS 1952-1968 98 75.51
    "GILMAR" Gylmar dos Santos Neves 1953-1969 94 75.53
    Edson Arantes do Nascimento "PELÉ" 1957-1971 92 80.43
    Manoel Francisco dos Santos "GARRINCHA" 1955-1966 50 92.00

    Jair Ventura Filho "JAIRZINHO" 1963-1982 81 77.78

    Eduardo Gonçalves de Andrade "TOSTãO" 1966-1972 54 79.63

    Arthur Antunes Coimbra "ZICO" 1971-1989 72 84.02

    Cláudio André Mergen TAFFAREL 1987-1998 101 74.75
    José Roberto Gama de Oliveira "BEBETO" 1985-1998 75 77.33
    ROMÁRIO de Souza Faria 1987-2005* 70 80.00


    Marcos Evangelista de Morais "CAFU" 1990-2006* 142 74.30
    ROBERTO CARLOS da Silva 1992-2006* 125 76.40
    RONALDO Luís Nazário de Lima 1994-2006* 97 80.41
    Nélson de Jesús Silva "DIDA" 1995-2006* 91 74.73
    Ronaldo de Assis Moreira "RONALDINHO" 1999-2007* 82 76.83
    "RIVALDO" Vito Borba Ferreira 1993-2003* 74 75.68



    3) Germany -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    Franz Beckenbauer 1965-1977 103 76.21
    Hans-Hubert Vogts 1967-1978 96 70.83
    Josef Dieter Maier 1966-1979 95 72.63
    Wolfgang Overath 1963-1974 81 70.99
    Gerhard Müller 1966-1974 62 79.84


    4) Hungary -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    József BOZSIK 1947-1962 101 74.75
    Gyula GROSICS 1947-1962 86 76.74
    Ferenc PUSKÁS 1945-1956 85 80.59
    Nándor HIDEGKUTI 1945-1958 69 82.61
    Sándor KOCSIS 1948-1956 68 84.56


    5) Netherlands -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    Ruud KROL 1969-1983 83 68.07
    Willem VAN HANEGEM 1968-1979 52 71.15
    Johan NEESKENS 1970-1981 49 70.41
    Johan CRUIJFF 1966-1977 48 73.96
    Rob RENSENBRINK 1968-1979 46 72.83

    Ronald KOEMAN 1983-1994 78 66.03
    Hans VAN BREUKELEN 1980-1992 73 60.96
    Frank RIJKAARD 1981-1994 73 61.64
    Ruud GULLIT 1981-1994 66 67.42
    Marco VAN BASTEN 1983-1992 58 66.38


    6) France -

    Name First/Last Caps Percentage

    BOSSIS Maxime 1976-1986 76 66.44
    PLATINI Michel 1976-1987 72 63.19

    PAPIN Jean-Pierre 1986-1995 54 71.29
    CANTONA Eric 1987-1995 45 72.22

    DESCHAMPS Didier 1989-2000 103 77.18
    BLANC Laurent 1989-2000 97 76.80
    PETIT Emmanuel 1990-2003 63 71.43

    THURAM Lilian 1994-2008 142 77.81
    DESAILLY Marcel 1993-2004 116 78.45
    ZIDANE Zinedine 1994-2006 108 81.02
    LIZARAZU Bixente 1992-2004 97 79.38
    DJORKAEFF Youri 1993-2002 82 76.83
    DUGARRY Christophe 1994-2002 55 73.64

    VIEIRA Patrick 1997-2008 105* 73.81
    HENRY Thierry 1997-2008 102* 75.49


    Considering that the results for most previous NT legends are in-line with expectations, I think the methodology itself has quite a bit of merit.

    As for your example, I think when Argentina lose the WC final vs Germany, most of the other key attackers are also playing hence they are also penalised. Conversely, when Messi is injured or suspended and Argentina struggle for qualifying to the 2018 WC, Messi does indeed get a pass while the others who are called up and under perform, do get a hit because of the situation. So the picture is not as one-sided as you are trying to paint it to be. Especially since it's not like the others are all present for friendlies against the likes of Nicaragua, like Messi was.
     
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  22. Tropeiro

    Tropeiro Member+

    Jun 1, 2018
    #7597 Tropeiro, Jul 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  23. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    Garrincha higher than Pele?
    Ronaldinho higher than Rivaldo?
    Bossis higher than Platini?
    I'm not sure about the accuracy of this methodology.

    Di Maria wasn't playing in the World Cup final. Your memory seems a bit off. Also please remind me which important game Higuain decided for Argentina outside of that World Cup goal against Belgium?
     
  24. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    - I was aware DiMaria missed the final, that's why I said most of the other attackers and not all the other attackers.

    - Higuain can help decide games by smart movement, pulling defenders off to create space for other attackers to score, not simply through his direct contributions to scoring. It's an underappreciated aspect of any striker's game IMHO.

    I think the point is that, Messi as he is seen by his fans, and the other Argentina attackers as they are seen again by his fans, are supposed to be in such different leagues that a result like what I found when comparing their win% is IMHO completely surprising.


    - Garrincha received the advantage of having his career coincide with that Brazilian squad's peak, which is not exactly the case for Pele. Having said that, Garrincha for Brazil was a monster in his own right.

    - Ronaldinho and Rivaldo are again not an exact match in case of when they started and when they finished playing for Brazil. The method works better when you compare players across the same timeframe.

    - Bossis and Platini, is something which I have wondered about myself as well, so that's a valid catch. I would have preferred to get the details for more players from that France team to understand the circumstances further.

    Anyway, it's fine if you don't believe in this method as it is a significantly different way to compare players, as opposed to the regular goal and assist analysis. I started using this since the goal and assist method didn't really work for comparing offensive players with defenders and goalkeepers. Anyway, the strangeness of the method is itself a major mental barrier for most, and its something that I am willing to acknowledge is not for everyone.
     
  25. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    First prize award goes to tropeiro
    The most disingenuous poster that ever lived
     

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