Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

No way we leave imo. The Eurosceptics are loud so I think there is a tendency to think they are more prevalent than they actually are. A bit like the Scots and the no campaign.

 

@Jenks
pound sterling tumbled 5 cents to a 7-year-low.

so it all begins

 

#thelifeofbrexit

 

Old news. It's already slowly recovering. Good luck finding an economist anywhere that doesn't expect it to bounce back. This sort of thing, albeit to a lesser extent, happens regularly where the City of London is concerned. The pound also fell during the Scottish referendum, and even when there's a prospect of a leftist major in the City. It's nothing to worry too much about. Besides, outside of the EU, with the ability to control our own trade deals, we'd be able to take advantage of a weaker pound as an export stimulus.

It will all depend on how we handle it. We could slip a percentage in GDP or so if we're complacent, or we could continue on course to overtake Germany and Japan in the next half century. Either way I'd rather our fate was in our own hands and we take the ambitious, outward-looking route of global trade, rather than opt for the stifling security blanket of the EU. Better to get out now before the collapse.

A lot will depend on the state of the continent come the referendum. It could well be the case that Germany and Sweden are in crisis mode as another couple of million 'refugees' arrive, and if the Germans keep trying to pressure EU states into cleaning up their mess then public opinion might well be on our side.

 

An ill-advised try to rewrite history.

 

His excuse has always been that the EU is the reason he can't control migration figures, without that excuse he'll at least either have to do something, or face the electorate. In truth, nothing will much change until UKIP become a more serious threat, because as things stand Labour and the Conservatives are both pro-mass-migration, whether they admit it or not.

 

@Jenks
Brexit would spark decade of ‘economic limbo’, claims top Tory

Europe minister says under EU rules UK would be cut out of single market before it could negotiate new deals

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/27/brexit-decade-economic-limbo-top-tory

Hey you didnt say that with swift new trade deal you meant a whole decade!

 

>something bad will happen if the uk leaves the eu, claims politician who doesn't want the uk to leave the eu

“With so many gaps in the ‘out’ case, the decision is clearly one between the great unknown and a greater Britain.”

“It would be our children’s futures on the table if we were to roll the dice.”





For someone who wants British people to vote to leave you have a strange way of showing it I have to say. This reads more like trolling/loneliness.

 

Well, there's you. And there's your Europe minister with unusual 6 years experience with Brussels.

Who, I ask you, who will turn out to be right?

 

We'll have to wait and see.

Show Spoiler Hide Spoiler

me

 

So why are you not in this job but some other numpty?

 

@Jenks
Why Frankfurt is about to rival London as Europe's new financial capital

 

If that is the case, it makes you wonder why they want to buy it, just wait until the exit and you may get it for cheaper.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b77d95c-da33-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#axzz41bXm89YA

 

Well they also own NYSE and with the uncertainty of not knowing if they will stay in or out it is not bad for both sides to be prepared for each scenario. If London stays in, it's going to be an even bigger Europe's wallstreet. If not, it will regress over time and the main stock exchange will be based in Frankfurt.

London has now 700k bankers. Thats about the population of Frankfurt. A conservative guess says Frankfurt banking jobs will grow from 60k to 80k in the first 5 years alone. Other experts say even more. And the word on the street is that JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others are already searching for office space upply in Frankfurt because it is so small. Why Frankfurt, not Paris or Amsterdam? "ECB" thats why.

 

They always say that, Frankfurt was used as an argument in the late 90's for us joining the Euro.

 

Possible. But this time an 340 mil people eurozone already exists and together with the EU has settled and is far more integrated. Also: not joining the Euro but staying in the EU is a different animal than leaving entirely.

 

I just dont see it. So much infrasctructure already present. And lets be honest Frankfurt is a much smaller and less desirable city. London will be fine as always it's the rest of the UK that worries me.

 

That is all true. And of course it is not going to happen in an instant. What is 20k jobs for the city? It is costly to move office space and thousands of workers and then there's what you said: culture and language. But in the long run you cannot be the financial capital of the continent when you are not part of the 500 mil market and/or the 340 mil common currency. Trade deals will not make up for this cause they can be broken or ended. Especially when your trade partners are at the same time your competitors.

And it is likely that not all jobs will go to Frankfurt but to have your headquarters there is practical and almost a must because of SSM. ECB now also does banking supervision. Especially once Britain has left and the only European big player outside the euro but in the EU is gone. That is why not so much Paris or Amsterdam. Or what about Dublin? English speaking yes, potential customers in form of big companies like in Germany? No.

 

Anyone seen any recent polls regarding this election?
Which is the most trustworthy institute measuring opinion in the UK?
I´m from Sweden so looking with interest at the upcoming elections.
A Brexit will probably break the EU concept.
A good thing if you ask me..but that is just my personal opinion.

 

This German guy has been doing the rounds on my FB, very funny.

 

We wont leave. We're having this referundum because the power tha be are very confident, just like the AV and Scottish independence votes. All the major parties are in favour of staying. Only people quite far to the right and the angry poor are very keen Euro-sceptics. Kind of similar to the Trump crowd.