Top 16 seeds Vermont Virginia Princeton Maryland SMU Indiana Georgetown Portland San Diego High Point Bryant Stanford Connecticut Akron NC State Furman 1st round matchups Hofstra at Syracuse Western Michigan at Clemson Grand Canyon at UCLA UC Irvine at Denver Washington at Oregon State Lindenwood at Kansas City Lafayette at Cornell North Florida at North Carolina Fairleigh Dickinson at Duke Notre Dame at Michigan Siena at Seton Hall Saint Louis at Saint Louis Florida Atlantic at UCF St. John's at West Virginia Cleveland State at Marshall Elon at UNCG
Who are the three biggest snubs and three lucky to be in selections this year? And three biggest head scratchers for seeded teams and/or are hosting but should be on the road, and vicaversa.
I didn't publish it here, but my metric predicted two teams to get elevated into the NCAA Tournament from below the RPI cut line: St. John's (rpi = 42) and VCU (43). They would replace Kentucky (39) and either Syracuse (37) or Gardner-Webb (39). I got St. John's and Gardner-Webb correct. But Kentucky made the field and so did Notre Dame (44), while Georgia Southern (34) was snubbed. The Eagles won 7 road games vs. UND's 2, had a better non-conference RPI than Notre Dame (47 vs. 66). GSU, however, lost its last 4 matches vs. Q1/Q2 and did lose at home to Kentucky. I'm not going to lose sleep over VCU not making it with an RPI of 43, but its non-conference RPI was 27 and SOS was 5 (the Rams played 6 teams that are in the Tournament and won at Clemson). As far as national seeds, it was kind of strange to see Bryant all the way down at 11. Perhaps the Bulldogs don't care, given they are 9-1-1 on the road this season. The most interesting thing to me was the seeding of Portland and San Diego. USD was the WCC champ, but Portland won the head-to-head matchup at home. Seems rather intentional given the looming 8/9 matchup. To (partially) answer a question above, Syracuse hosting Hofstra is a stretch.
1st-round times all times EST 1:00 PM: Fairleigh Dickinson at Duke 5:00 PM: UC Irvine at Denver 5:00 PM: Lafayette at Cornell 5:00 PM: Siena at Seton Hall 5:00 PM: Elon at UNCG 6:00 PM: Hofstra at Syracuse 6:00 PM: Western Michigan at Clemson 6:00 PM: North Florida at North Carolina 6:00 PM: Notre Dame at Michigan 7:00 PM: Lindenwood at Kansas City 7:00 PM: Florida Atlantic at UCF 7:00 PM: St. John's at West Virginia 7:15 PM: Cleveland State at Marshall 8:00 PM: Kentucky at Saint Louis 9:00 PM: Washington at Oregon State 10:00 PM: Grand Canyon at UCLA
I'll let @gauchodan attempt a conference breakdown, but despite @Sandon Mibut's many posts lamenting the ACC teams' overall performance this season, nine ACC teams made it in. Five Big East teams are in - a surprise to me - as are the B1G's final four. What seems different/curious to me is the concentration of ACC teams: (Syracuse + Clemson; Duke + ND; Stanford + SMU; NC State + Virginia; only UNC is apart) - in five sections, leaving three sections entirely ACC-free. I would have spread the ACC teams out a bit more. There was some conversation on the women's side that, in addition to many conferences down-sizing their conference tournaments this year, travel costs in NCAA selections/placements were a greater factor this year.
The 4 SBC teams are highly grouped together, all on the same side of the bracket, and Marshall/WVU/UCF all possibly meeting the Third Round or Quarterfinals. I do consider Georgia Southern a fairly big snub at 34 in RPI. Both Georgia Southern and St John hosted Marshall this year - GS throughly dominated Marshall and posted a big win. Marshall escaped St. John's with a 1-1 draw but played down a man for most of the match, and I think Marshall was disappointed with that draw. Georgia Southern's downfall is other than beating Charlotte in the opener, they didn't play a challenging OOC schedule. Statistically, the SBC was down a bit in the ratings this year and perhaps didn't want to put 5 SBC teams in.
3 rematches in the first round. Notre Dame at Michigan (1-1 Draw at Michigan) Washington at Oregon State (2-1 win for OSU in Oregon) Elon at UNCG (0-0 Draw at Elon) Anyone have any concept of how common this happens?
They've been doing that travel thing ever since COVID. It's worse on the West Coast, where there aren't a lot of options. If the same teams get in, they're going to have the same matchups every year. For me, the one team in the ACC that got in that I would have left out was Notre Dame. They didn't finish strong, they didn't schedule that hard and they didn't have a lot of success at the top end of their schedule. I'm not sure what was so extraordinary about UND that they had to be leapfrogged into the Tournament.
Agree on Georgia Southern, although I can see reasons for them getting left out. Eagles had a non-con SOS of 154 and earned just 6 points in Q1/Q2 games. Notre Dame's SOS numbers were better (non-con SOS = 69), but at some point you have to beat someone, don't you? Notre Dame's last victory over a team with a winning record was Oct. 7 (Green Bay). The Irish lost twice (granted, on the road) to non-Tournament teams (NIU, Wake Forest) down the stretch and were a 1st-round washout, at home, in the ACC Tournament. The conference WAS down this year, so there should be less deference to the "they're in the ACC" trope. Teams like UND get oodles of chances to show they are a Tournament team. UND went 1-4 in its last 5, getting outscored 11-3. They don't look like a Tournament team to me. Now watch, they'll make a run.
The surprise of the day for me was the inclusion of SH / SJ both of whom did not figure in the BET. It isn't that i did not consider them but just concluded that it was a three section league in '25. One of the snubs may have been Dayton. I think they lost the A-10, in a shootout. I'm not saying they deserved in, but it might be an easier sell than SJ or SH. I'll have to really look at what factors made it the league's tourny winner (SLU) only, to advance.
I have this sneaking suspicion Dr. Dave (64 in January) is hanging up the whistle after this season and the NCAA was throwing him a bone for years of loyal service.
You may very well be right - but to what benefit for the NCAA selection committee? "Throwing a bone" to someone retiring doesn't exactly guarantee a return favor does it?
39 years of coaching at the NCAA level including 35 at Division I. Proving that an inner-city school can win a national championship and being one of the toughest outs in the NCAA almost every year. Until Vermont, the only team to play on synthetic turf and win a championship. I think he earned his chips and paid them forward.
American and collegiate soccer is definitely better because of Dave Masur. Whatever issues the sport has, if there were more Dr. Daves in college soccer, there'd be fewer issues.
For the record, I do believe he has earned his flowers and has had a great career if/when he decide its time to walk away. Hes earned the right to stay at St Johns for as long as he wants. But to give him a place in the tournament because of what he has done for 35 years? I dont agree with that when sports are one of the few remaining things in the world that is a true meritocracy. Maybe a naive way of thinking but if thats one case, you could easily poke holes in other choices for the selection committee. For one, i don't agree Syracuse should be hosting Hofstra. Should Syracuse be hosting someone else? perhaps. But to host a team that is 10 points above you in the rpi is just wrong if were using that as the measuring stick for college soccer still.
Also, I hadn’t thought about the inner-city angle but it’s definitely true. No team from an inner-city campus has won a national title since and it hadn’t really happened in the decade prior, either. Beautiful, bucolic college towns: Vermont, Clemson, Notre Dame, Indiana, North Carolina, Connecticut, Duke Pretty suburban campuses: Stanford, Maryland, Santa Clara, SIU-Edwardsville Small/mid-size cities: Syracuse, Marshall, Akron, Wake Forest, Wisconsin Beautiful sea-side town: UC Santa Barbara Pretty, urban campuses but definitely NOT inner city: Georgetown, UCLA, San Francisco Inner City: St. John’s You could argue that Howard was inner-city when it was a national power but it certainly isn’t now that it’s surrounded by 7-figure rowhouses and condos. And Saint Louis, while in the city that bears its name, is arguably closer to St. John’s than it is to Westwood or Georgetown. (It’s been a while since I’ve been on that campus; my memory is of a pretty campus but not a pretty surrounding neighborhood but that could be a flawed memory because, old.) The only other schools to have won national titles – Michigan State, West Chester and Navy – are hardly inner-city, either.
I agree with all of this. But, as Chris Rock says, if it's a tie... If it came down to, say, St. John's and Gardner-Webb and/or Georgia Southern, San Francisco and Rutgers for the final spots, the Masur factor might have made a difference. That, and SOS. 34. Georgia Southern - 123 35. Gardner-Webb - 151 41. Rutgers - 41 42. St. John's - 35 44. Notre Dame - 23 Of the 5, SOS made the difference. And St. John's or Rutgers, well, that's probably the Masur factor. Again just a guess.
Have you attended a match @ Cub Cadet Field in Akron? Nestled in near East Akron, one can see the old rubber factories, Goodyear to the east, Firestone (faintly) to the south. Akron is most definitely urban, if not inner-city. I guess we need to strictly define those terms. I like your narrative and I do not mean to mess it up. But Wake Forest is a much (way) nicer place than east Akron.
I have not been to Akron and based by assumption on the size of the town. Clearly, that was a mistake by me. My bad.
Akron’s soccer stadium is well above average, but the actual pitch is first in class, pristine, blue ribbon winner. The field really sticks out on a typical urban campus situated in the extraordinarily ugly post-industrial Akron. I love it.
I was thinking the same about others. Couldn’t pay me enough to live in South Bend. Sure…Notre Dame is awesome, but that’s the only good thing about that area.
LOL. We went up for the girls' game last Saturday. My 8yo daughter says "Dad, I love South Bend! Can I go here instead of Stanford?" Uh, hunny, you love ND's campus (actually, the Five Guys and athletics complex). You must not have been looking out the window as we drove through the city.