Granted its early to talk about this, but I could easily foresee NASL eventually passing MLS in terms of quality and ambition. With the lack of restrictions and the ever increasing deeper pocket owners coming into the mix it is not beyond reason to think NASL could surpass MLS in a short period of time. Granted MLS has laid the groundwork to build the "soccer" brand in this country, but its not completely out of the question that a few rich owners could come into the USA landscape and make a better product by buying better players. Remember the old NASL basically built up that league in a matter of a few years, and with the popularity of soccer now in this country what they got wrong last time might be a formula to get it right this time? Granted its a long shot, but if your Garber you certainly have to be a bit worried, and especially with the outspoken folks over at the Cosmos who have adamently declared their disdain for the MLS model. There are quite a few Sheikhs out there that don't mind throwing a little money around. Throw in the owner of the Orlando side, and who knows what could happen..
And playing where? MLS is already in most of the top markets, and most of those markets couldn't support a second team. Yeah, they'll have the Cosmos and they could put a team in Miami, Atlanta, maybe LA, but the rest of the league is going to play in places like Indy and San Antonio, not exactly the major markets they need to get sponsorship and TV revenue to pay for those players.
I mean, the thing that's not really ever discussed in these crazy NASL threads is that the "restrictions" put on MLS are put on MLS by MLS, and MLS can just as easily remove that restriction. If NASL demonstrates that American soccer can thrive with a $50m salaray cap, does anyone really think that MLS sticks to its low-cost guns?
Since NASL does not have to follow MLS you must also assume they could in theory put a team and stadium closer to downtown in Chicago, Dallas, LA, etc.. again I'm not saying its all that unlikely, but it is worth considering. And to say its never going to happen the Cosmos just signed a Spanish international who as recently as he 2010 Euros was on that side. Granted its not a Beckham signing, but there are players around the world that would come solely for money. I hope it doesn't happen because instead of wrecking 1 league it could destroy 2 leagues with complete reckless abandon. If and this is a big if the NASL were able to land some big, big marqee names I understand that, but at the same time if MLS is already surpassed they may be too late to the party..
That's a lot of expenditure for a team that most likely won't get enough support to pay for it, since there's already a well-established dominant team in those markets, and with the exception of NY and LA (and maybe Chicago) there isn't enough of a fanbase to support two teams.
I should let this go because I know it's a troll, but the premise here is insane. As an ownership group, MLS' owners have dumped billions of dollars into the sport and continue to invest. I fail to see how that equates to low ambition. The league has grown from 10 to 19 and now 20 teams. All but a handful of teams have their own or will have their own stadiums. I haven't seen anything indicating that any NASL are even playing in the same financial league as smaller MLS investors nor have I seen any indication that NASL or it's owners are interested in starting a financial arms race with MLS. It wouldn't even make sense.
The whole premise of this thread lacks historical perspective. Every major league in North America has had competition from an upstart and every one has either existed in parallel with or absorbed the upstart and then has become an even better league because of it. If NASL becomes the AL or AFL of soccer then we should be celebrating, not freaking out.
the one thing you don't have to worry about is the two leagues destroying each other. nasl deserves some discussion and it's worth 'gaming' some scenarios. but tbh, i don't think the approach you've taken leads anywhere. for one thing, other than ny imo nasl has no intention of going head to head in markets. if anything it may go head to head on some players, given that the mls cap is so low.
I think the Cosmos -- and this really is about the Cosmos, not the other teams IMO -- is going to be an interesting test, one that in many respects wouldn't be possible within the confines of MLS. For years we've been discussing whether some of MLS more restrictive rules on spending, put in place to safeguard the young league, might actually be counter-productive, especially in some of the bigger markets. MLS isn't about to toss out those rules that have served it well, but if the Cosmos are serious they can pursue a different path to see if it really makes a difference. Nothing prevents the Cosmos from signing a more expensive roster, doing their own media and sponsorship deals and keeping much of that money for themselves. If that's not enough, they can run as big a deficit as ownership will allow. It will be interesting to see if they do so.
go check some of the teams the (real) cosmos were selling out (75k) at old giants stadium. you think the memphis southmen weren't a snooze? almost every cosmos home game was against vastly inferior competition.
best thing cosmos have going for them is the mls salary cap. that's not a very high hurdle to go up against. the mls salary structure makes it easier for some competitor to start with a fairly reasonable (and encouraging) idea of the financials involved in mounting a challenge. like you, i have no idea how aggressive the cosmos might be. but i'd keep an eye also on some of the other teams, including minnesota, and of course the southeastern markets in the nasl that must interest mls (and maybe one or two others that might surprise, indy being an early possibility). imo that's the other leg of this nasl experiment.
As stated before. This looks like nothing more than a push for eventual MLS membership/merger. The parallels with the 1960's AFL are pretty obvious.
are you suggesting that if the cosmos were outdrawing mls at the gate, mls would just shrug and wait for them to go away?
This is all hypothetical and years down the road. How long who knows. But if, and it's a big if, the Cosmos have success, enough that larger crowds start turning out and without the salary restrictions they bring in some bigger name players, and I wildcard is doing well in USOC and possibly going to CCL, it would be interesting if other foreign investment groups with a lot of money decide to invest in NASL and attempt to go this route as well. That's the thing, it's not just how good Cosmos may or may not end up being, but the more important question to me is do they have enough success and is that success tempting enough that other big money investment groups find the route they're taking attractive. And I don't buy the argument that MLS already has a foothold in key markets so the NASL is out of luck. A number of MLS markets, even big markets they supposedly have a hold of aren't doing well, whether it's Chicago or NE or others. And frankly, if a big ownership group came in, invested and put a product out there similar to what the Cosmos might have in 3-5 years, that would provide some interesting competition, especially if some MLS markets aren't fixed in the near future. It's not like the level of a few MLS teams is that hard to reach, and if you add some star flavor to the mix, I could see a number of fans having their interest turned. All hypothetical though, I wouldn't say near likely either, just a possibility and there's a lot which would have to play into it from tv contracts to stadiums. But I'm not so sure if Cosmos did start outdrawing some MLS teams at the gate and pulling in decent revenue that they'd want in MLS, as at that point their team salary probably doesn't fit into the cap. I think it could be just as likely foreign investors see the success Cosmos might have at that point, attempt to do the same and go after a decent tv contract. And despite MLS on NBCSN and ESPN, if Cosmos or other NASL teams down the road start drawing well at the gate and bringing in some bigger name players, even 1/3 of what the previous edition of Cosmos did, I'd expect tv networks to take interest. You'd have one league built on parity and another built on stars. Many disagree with me on this, but I'm not convinced MLS has some permanent stranglehold on the top division in this country. They might technically be the top division and right now they aren't challenged, but the parity and low salary cap environment makes it easier for a 2nd division to challenge them one day if it has owners willing to invest without worrying about losses here or there. It's not like a big league in Europe where you needs tens, if not hundreds of millions to compete with the top teams and there's no pro/rel to ensure the better teams simply move into the top division. A few owners willing to build a stadium and invest 10M in a roster can change the soccer landscape quickly, and tv networks would take interest in that. And a wildcard is the MLS expansion fee. Would foreign investors if they do take interest in NASL down the road and have success choose to pay a 50-100M+ expansion fee, or instead attempt to pump some of that into star players? And if they pump even a fraction of that into their roster, that could really cause an interesting scene. Again, I wouldn't say likely though.
Honestly, I like what NASL is doing; but, I don't think they'll succeed. The Cosmos have been unsuccessful in of their main intents, getting a franchise in the city. What the Cosmos should legitimately ask for is some type of groundshare with NYCFC if there's any public financing. This could be a legitimate argument that could be played in the court of public opinion on the grounds that if they weren't included it's basically the city of New York picking winners and losers. However, if Man City just feels like dumping a bunch of money into their franchise (and pay for a stadium themselves), Cosmos will probably become more irrelevant than they already are.
The neo-Cosmos won't be fielding the biggest names in soccer like they were in the late-70s and early 80s and it was those names that people were coming out to see. Once Warner cut off the original Cosmos from their bankroll, the attendance took a serious dip. Without the big names, the new-Cosmos are going to be fielding MLS castoffs and aging internationals that MLS and the Middle East aren't interested in... They might be the best team in NASL, but they'll still be putting subpar quality out on the field and, ultimately, they'll see a dip in attendance as well... That's assuming they get great attendance from the start. Yup.. Just like they did with the Rhinos.