Within the AFC, there are no A category team still. The B category teams would be Japan (#20 per FIFA rankings), Iran (#22 per FIFA rankings), Australia (#27 per FIFA rankings), and Saudi Arabia (#54 per FIFA rankings). While Japan to me is a level above the rest, earning a B+ (87) in my book, the team that you would place next in line to me is debatable despite Iran still being ranked pretty well by FIFA. For me, none of the rest would earn better than a B and I give all of them basically the same grade B-/B (83/84). The next level teams in the AFC still need to be tested. The highest ranked teams in the next category according to FIFA are Qatar (59), Iraq (70), UAE (72), Oman (73), Uzbekistan (74), China (80) and Jordan (82). While I would list and rank them differently, I also consider these teams to be the next category sides in the AFC, putting most of them in the C/C+ range. Among them, I would give Uzbekistan a C+ and see them arguably a cut above the rest even if Qatar is still presumptively a C+ side in my book as well. Oman's stock declined in my eyes after their lackluster and poor showing in a recent tournament (CAFA) they were invited to and I would not give them more than a C/C+ or 86 right now. Jordan, China and the UAE arguably rate slightly better than Iraq for now but all are probably in the same C/C+ range. Below them, for the rest of the AFC teams, until you get below N. Korea (currently ranked #115), they are presumptively in the lower C categories, either Cs or C-s. The main difference between CAF and the AFC to me is that I see CAF having many more teams at the cusp of being internationally competitive. The top C level teams in the AFC such as Uzbekistan and Qatar are more or less dime a dozen in CAF. And these kind of teams can always upset and get a result of sorts against a next level team in the lower or mid B categories, whether in their own region or outside. The difference is that they still won't do so consistently enough and need to be lucky to be at their best form when it counts the most (i.e., in a major tournament) to see their standing rise. And the latter is a point that I feel needs to be borne in mind and emphasized: like players, the form teams show varies slightly in each and between tournaments. If you really want to understand how a side is doing, you should never look only at how they looked or did in a particular tournament. Overall results teams get are still your best guide.
They were unintentionally deleted as I was editing my post. They rank #28 by FIFA (#4 in the AFC) and are definitely one of the B category sides in the AFC at around the level of the rest of the teams I mentioned (Iran, Australia, and Saudi Arabia).
I absolutely agree that CAF has incredible depth. It gets highlighted in my ranking. 16 CAF sides cracked my top 70 which is kinda the holy grail as top 70 translates for me to being competitive at a 48 team World Cup. Regarding your view on the pecking order of the AFC. I agree with you that Oman's stock has fallen after their poor CAFA Nations Cup showing. I was actually pretty high on them but I was forced to adjust my opinion on them after they were handily beaten by Uzbekistan and didn't look convincing against some very lowly ranked sides. I think Asia will see in the next years some sort of a paradigm shift. Uzbekistan will become stronger and stronger. At this moment of time I give Uzbekistan the best chance among the 2nd tier sides to establish itself as a future powerhouse in the AFC. I think their football is progressing nicely. Elsewhere I see some of the West Asian nations without much ressources and without a strong league like Syria, Lebanon, Palestine falling behind. South East Asia I regard as one of the fastest growing regions in the world. I've put 3 ASEAN sides in my top 100. I think this is a region on the rise and we might see these teams doing reasonably well at the next Asian Cup and possibly in WCQ as well. I see in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia good potential to stir up the pecking order of Asian football. In West Asia there is also Bahrain who I rate among the best 2nd tier sides in Asia. They had some regional success in 2019 when they won the Gulf Cup and the WAFF tournament. They were decent in last WCQ but fell short eventually. I don't know if you saw my AFC WCQ predictions but I picked Japan, Australia, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, UAE and Bahrain to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. I handed out my playoff spot to Iraq. If you don't mind I would like to see your picks as well. So, I think South East Asia will have to wait until 2030 to see one of their teams at the World Cup. I just think this cycle comes a little bit too soon for the ASEAN region but expect some surprises by them at the Asian Cup and a steady rise in the next years.
When looking at one match in a vacuum, yes. But collecting, say, 11 points in a full qualifying campain is better than getting 9 points. Period. And If I was constructing a ranking formula, I would structure it accordingly. I.e. I wouldn't care if the team getting 9 points beat a pot 1 team while the one getting 11 only beat the teams ranked below them.
I suppose one could just give every tournament that national teams play in a weighting and just award them ranking points based on the number of points they accumulate in said tournaments. For confederational tournaments, determine the weighting based on a coefficient taking into account the results of, say, the last two World Cups, i.e. the Euro and Copa America should obviously have more weighting than the Gold Cup or the Asian Cup. The only confusion would be what to do with friendlies, unless we choose to discard them altogether (I wouldn't have a problem with that tbh).
This only works with teams in the same group. I hope you aren't seriously meaning to use this method to compare other teams in different groups.
No, I mean across groups (in the same confederation) also. Since these groups are drawn from a seeded draw, the difficulty of one's opponents is already built in. Of course, I wouldn't just use one qualifying campaign to base my entire ranking on. I would probably use results from over the last 4 years (weighting recent years more heavily), including also nations leagues and other competitions, as applicable.
I honestly think it is too early for me to give anything more than wild speculation regarding which teams will qualify for the next World Cup from the AFC. But right now, subject to whatever changes we see the pecking order in the AFC in the next couple of years, I think the main contenders for the allocations from the AFC are roughly as follows below in my post. In this regard, I should emphasize that a team's present odds of qualifying for the World Cup involves IMO more than present team strength: the stability of your football program as a whole, and the underlying conditions, is also significant in picking which teams have the best odds looking at the issue this far in advance. Iran, by ways of example on this point, is still among the very best teams in the AFC, ranking 2nd by FIFA and top 4-5 regardless of whatever matrix you look at. But given Iran's conditions, it lacks the stable foundation to garner the same odds as a side that might not be necessarily as strong today if Iran were to meet them on the football pitch tomorrow. A) Virtual Show-ins (90%+): 1- Japan 2- S. Korea 3- Australia B) Strong Favorites (70%+): 4- Saudi Arabia 5- Iran C) Favorites (51%+): 6- Uzbekistan D) Seriously Hopeful (near 50%): 7- Qatar 8-UAE 9- China 10- Jordan 11- Iraq 12- Bahrain E) Possible Dark Horses (25-30%): 13- Oman 14- Vietnam 15- India 16- Thailand 17- N. Korea 18- Kuwait 19- Syria 20- Lebanon
Given the quite forgiving qualification system I would be extremely surprised, even shocked, if one of those 5 failed to eventually qualify. I also think its too early to mention who else I think may make it but the rest of your list is as good as any. The last 3 teams and the playoff side should come from those teams. PS Good to see you back and posting
From now on I'll list for each intl' break's competitive games where FIFA Rankings and my ranking show divergence in terms of which team is higher ranked. A huge sample size of games will eventually prove which ranking outperforms the other. I couldn't figure out to come up with a calculation method in order to create winning expectancy for each team of a game. I'm not a mathematician after all. My ranking will for the time being compete only against the FIFA Rankings as FIFA ranking gets updated monthly (like mine)
So, there is a total of 8 competitive games scheduled for this month showing divergence between my ranking and FIFA Rankings in terms of which team is higher ranked. For comparison here again my ranking and FIFA Rankings: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZUq8Y70yRYR1xdL4LNIFciWoss3rai3VB1fvtIzjCJ4/edit?usp=sharing https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id14079 September fixtures (in barckets my rating for the team) => The higher ranked team by me is written in bold. Angola (74) vs Madagascar (56) Congo (59) vs Gambia (69) - on neutral ground Serbia (78) vs Hungary (81) Luxembourg (70) vs Iceland (65) Romania (73) vs Israel (74) Kazakhstan (69) vs Northern Ireland (68) Sweden (78) vs Austria (82) Venezuela (75) vs Paraguay (73) The way this works is that the winner will get a point. A draw voids the contest. Home and away statistics and overall record will be updated after each international break. So, predicted winners by my ranking are Angola, Gambia, Hungary, Luxembourg, Israel, Kazakhstan, Austria and Venezuela. Predicted winners by FIFA Rankings are Madagascar, Congo, Serbia, Iceland, Romania, Northern Ireland, Sweden and Paraguay. 4x home advantage for 'my' teams 3x home advantage for 'FIFA' teams 1x game on neutral ground
Update Angola 0-0 Madagascar Serbia 1-2 Hungary Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland Romania 1-1 Israel My ranking leads in the series with a 2-2-0 record thus far over the FIFA Rankings.
Update Angola 0-0 Madagascar Serbia 1-2 Hungary Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland Romania 1-1 Israel Kazakhstan 1-0 Northern ireland Gambia 2-2 Congo My ranking leads in the series with a 3-3-0 record thus far over the FIFA Rankings. With only two games left FIFA can't catch up anymore with me for the September window. The final score will be settled with Sweden - Austria and Venezuela - Paraguay.
Looking at some of this month's results it's definately very clear that my ranking needs adjustments. Not so much in the top 100 but in the outskirts of the top 100 and further down. Especially the ratings of these teams must be rectified. The main flaw my ranking has at the moment is that the gap between 2nd and 3rd tier sides in UEFA, CAF and even in the AFC is overstated. That's why I gotta increase ratings for teams outside of my top 100. Ideally I should find a formular that the 150th ranked side has a 55 or maybe even 60 rating and not 51.
Summary September Contest Angola 0-0 Madagascar Serbia 1-2 Hungary Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland Romania 1-1 Israel Kazakhstan 1-0 Northern ireland Gambia 2-2 Congo Sweden 1-3 Austria Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay Kamtedrejt ranking win with a 5-3-0 record. 4 home games for Kamtedrejt 3 home games for FIFA 1 game on neutral ground (Gambia - Congo) Wow! It's a resounding victory for me over the FIFA Rankings. My teams stood undefeated in eight games!
I'm working on a calculation format to create winning expectancies for any game containing two top 150 teams ranked by me. The only way I can fully prove the superiority of my ranking over the FIFA Rankings is by letting it measure itself for all games and not only for a number of selected games where my ranking shows divergences to the FIFA Rankings.
My updated ranking is out. Very detailed spreasheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZUq8Y70yRYR1xdL4LNIFciWoss3rai3VB1fvtIzjCJ4/edit?usp=sharing
Breakdown by tier Highly competitive in the intl' sphere - Top 50 24x UEFA 11x CAF 7x CONMEBOL 4x AFC 4x CONCACAF
Breakdown by tier Competitive at a 48 team World Cup - Top 70 33x UEFA 16x CAF 9x CONMEBOL 8x AFC 4x CONCACAF
Breakdown by tier Borderline competitive in the intl' sphere - Top 100 40x UEFA 26x CAF 14x AFC 10x CONMEBOL 9x CONCACAF 1x OFC
I prepared a document that explains my ranking's prediction methodology. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zl9fx8sdQC6aSeeY6sd2hNkMJk_ztE6GPf12Ib-T7F8/edit?usp=sharing I will next week give also what the most likely outcome is for each and every competitive game of the upcoming intl' break. It's still not possible for me to create exact winning expectancies but the format I present now is a step in that direction
My updated ranking for October has been made available. Here it is: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZUq8Y70yRYR1xdL4LNIFciWoss3rai3VB1fvtIzjCJ4/edit?usp=sharing
I can announce now which nations will conclude 2023 in my top 20 (ordered by confederation) UEFA - 11 Teams France 89.5 England 88 Spain 87 Portugal 87 Italy 84.5 Netherlands 84 Belgium 84 Croatia 83.5 Austria 82 Denmark 81.5 Hungary 81.5 CONMEBOL - 4 Teams Argentina 88 Uruguay 84.5 Brazil 84 Colombia 83 CAF - 3 Teams Morocco 83.5 Senegal 83.5 Egypt 81.5 AFC - 2 Teams Japan 84.5 South Korea 81.5 Changes to last month Out Germany USA Ecuador In South Korea Egypt Hungary