My 2022 World Cup Group Stage Predictions: What do you think?

What's coming up next from my part?

I will soon give my grade list of all 32 teams. And I will publish my temporary odds for who wins the World Cup. Stay tuned.

 

Denmark are coming into this World Cup on fire. It's a huge gamble to not pick them to advance.

 

Any prediction is too soon given the odd circumstances the tournement takes place in. It's in the middle of a club season with no time for any injured players to recuperate at all.
Anything can happen to essential players in league/confed club tournements matches.
On top of that the star studded teams come with a crew that's coming in after a bucket load of demanding UEFA cup matches and league matches, so not rested at all.

 

I prefer the percentage method than to simply posting who I think will qualify. This tells much more, because it shows the likelihood of an upset rather than just the teams which "should qualify"

My percentages from after the last window are above.

Holland 80%
Senegal 55%
Qatar 35%
Ecuador 30%

Holland up 5% Senegal down 5%

England 65%
USA 50%
Wales 45%
Iran 40%

England down 15% US down 5% Wales up 5% Iran up 15%

Argentina 90%
Mexico 45%
Poland 40%
Saudi Arabia 25%

Mexico down 10% Poland down 5% S Arabia up 15%

France 75%
Denmark 75%
Tunisia 30%
Australia 20%

France down 5% Denmark up 5%

Spain 75%
Germany 65%
Japan 50%
Costa Rica 10%

Germany down 5% Japan up 5%

Belgium 60%
Croatia 60%
Morocco 45%
Canada 35%

Belgium down 10% Morocco up 5% Canada up 5%

Brazil 80%
Serbia 55%
Switzerland 45%
Cameroon 20%

Serbia up 5% Switzerland up 5% Cameroon down 10%

Portugal 70%
Uruguay 60%
Ghana 40%
S. Korea 30%

No change


None of my most likely 2 qualifiers have changed from last window.

None of my group leaders have changed though France/Denmark and Belgium/Croatia are now even.

Group H is the only group where no percentages have changed.

Highest stock Risen both Iran and Saudi Arabia have gone up 15%

Biggest stock loss England down 15%

 

According to my numbers the most likely "big team" to go down is either Belgium or Croatia, likely at the hands of Morocco, but with Canada also likely to play spoiler.

Next up are England, with any 2 of US, Wales, Iran to do the damage

And Germany at the hands of Japan.

Group F in my opinion is the low key group of death.

 

Statistically the two old European sides in Group F in Belgium and Croatia should be at high risk of disappointing. But because of the schedule and the match up styles it's still hart to see past them. I believe Morocco are more likely to take off points from Croatia and Belgium. However I favour Canada over Morocco when both teams will face each other on matchday 3. That all makes for a group where the point gap will be close between all teams but the favourites will go through eventually.

 

The former Chelsea scout Piet Visser said about the Qatar striker that he's an amazingly skilled player.

 

Another thing that is very interesting to predict is which match ups of the group stage will produce blowouts. I'm also thinking about that as well as my finalised prediction will have scorelines of all 48 group stage games.

In modern times where most underdogs have improved their defense lopsided scorelines are getting less common at World Cups. So, I refer to a bloweout already a win by 3 goals. It should be 4 to be honest but then we would look at a very limited number of games I think.

 

Morocco best style matchup is against Croatia. They are the most similar in style.

I expect Morocco to dominate possession against ALL teams in their group. Canada and Belgium players who can counter very quickly which will be the biggest threat to Morocco's style. They matchup worst against efficient quick counter attacking teams.

The key is if Morocco can finish their chances and be more decisive in the final third, but also have to recover quickly from loss of possession, which is how they were exposed against the US.

 

You're right, I also noticed that some non-European leagues are going to stop in literally 2 weeks, so the national teams players can be together, this is true in the case of Mexico, Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia (teams that have many of their players in their local leagues) and I don't know if it's going to have any (positive?) effect due to them being working together for more than one week before the wc.

Cause as things stand right now in the top European leagues, most players are going to be released one week before the world cup, which is probably going to overall lead to some clumsy first matches.

 

Three people here didn't pick any CONCACAF side to advance.

The last time we had no CONCACAF representation in the knockouts was in 1982.

It would be an highly unfitting time for CONCACAF to disappoint given the next World Cup is going to take place in the USA, Mexico and Canada.

 

I've picked 2, but it's mainly because they are in relatively easy groups, both courtesy of undeserved 2nd seed births.

 

I think the Belgium-Croatia match will be almost a friendly, as both teams will probably have already qualified for R16 when they play, and whether it's Germany or Spain as the next opponent they probably don't care too much. In fact, the only difference between finishing first and second in Group F I can see is that Brazil will be the likely quarter-final opponent for the second place team, assuming they get that far.

 

In those circumstances the teams that play an established system players are confident and comfortable with as a base, are in a favourable position.

 

I keep going with Australia being a 0 point finisher in Qatar. After this intl' break I add also Cameroon among the teams who will lose every single game keeping the trend of always a CAF side going home empty-handed since 2006.
I see also Costa Rica at high risk of finishing with three losses.

The rest of the teams (yeah! including Qatar and Saudi Arabia) will pick up points.

 

I mean the Australian fan on this forum said he would give his team a 'C' grade if they got 1 point total... and an A+ for knock out stage. Expectations are not high for Australia.

 

I just want some upsets and surprises. Maybe a team like Morocco makes the jump and makes a run.

 

I've been following World Cups closely since 2002. I never saw such a weak Australian team like this one. My prediction for them is that they' ll lose to France in a respectable way (openers are often cagey), then they'll come up just short to Tunisia and on the final matchday I see them receiving a drubbing on the hands of Denmark. Denmark might want to win big because it could come down to goal differential who tops the group. I see something like a 3-0 or 4-0 win for Denmark.

Will Australia score a goal? Probably.
Only Saudi Arabia 2002 and China 2002 failed to so in the 32 team era.

The reason I'm hesitant or even a bit reluctant to pick Costa Rica as a 0 point finisher is that I see more fight in them.
Costa Rica are an underrated proud footballing nation. Even in 2018 when I was completely down on them they didn't do as badly as I thought. They picked up a draw against Switzerland and lost to Brazil only due to two goals in stoppage time.

 

Morocco are a decent shout for a surprise. They have at least potential. The question is whether they'll play up to their potential and score the chances they get.

 

excellent point which means the teams i the later groups will have more time to work before their first games. The first couple of groups could have some matchday 1 surprises.

 

I think it's more likely that two teams get 7 points and two teams get 1 point.

 

Possibly, but rarely do WC groups go perfectly to script like that. All it takes is for either Canada or Morocco to steal 1 point in one of their first two games and there will at least be something to play for on the final day (this is why I like the goal difference tiebreaker over the head-to-head).

Also, its almost impossible that both Spain and Germany are safe after two matches (unless they win by lopsided margins in the first round of games). So it won't be simply a question of Spain or Germany in the R16, there will still be a possibility of facing Japan or Costa Rica in R16 as a reward for winning Group F.

 

Well, they won't dominate possession against Croatia, surely.

 

Looking at my stats and considering also the form shown in recent friendlies if there is a ROW team making a quarterfinals run Japan and Morocco look to be the best choices. One of them will eventually defy the odds and make some noise. Before this window I thought maybe the USA but not so much anymore. They might still make it out of the group though.

I sided with Japan for now but nothing is set in stone ....

 

Remind me that Morocco were the best team in their group in 2018 World Cup.

For the group of death, i think Germany and Japan will advance.