It's now tournament time with a few shake-ups to end out the regular season. Creighton dropped two games to a middle of the table (I'm talking about the standings, not talent) SMS squad, then a lower level Evansville team. Drake beat SMS to shake things up, then lost to Evansville. Seeing that Evansville won two games this past weekend, does that mean they're a darkhorse to win the tournament? Or was it just luck? Who is going to take the tournament? Also, what kind of performance do the NCAA bubble teams need to put out in order to get into the NCAA tournament without winning the MVC tourny outright? SMU is a lock for the NCAA tournament, I would say Creighton is also. I'm thinking the rest of the field would have to win the tournament to get into the "Big Dance." Tulsa could get in on a wildcard if they destroy their quarter and semifinal opponents and show well in the final, but if not I'd say they're going to be home early also. Drake, Bradley, Vanderbilt, Evansville and SMS all need to win the tournament to get in. Let's hear your thoughts.
Creighton will get their act together and beat Evansville. Tulsa over SMS. SMU over Vandy. Bradley at home over Drake. Semis - Creighton beats Tulsa. SMU over Bradley. Finals - Creighton gets revenge over SMU. Creighton and SMU gets into the tournament - everyone else starts thinking about next year. Both Creighton and SMU will get to at least the final eight.
The only teams in the Valley getting in without a win in the tournament are Creighton and SMU. Everyone else needs to win the tournament to get an NCAA birth. Tulsa's schedule strength won't get them in without a win in the tournament. They have one decent win over Kentucky lost to all of the other ranked teams they played including two 4-0 whippings by Creighton and SMU. Throw in losses to SMS and Wisconsin and Tulsa needs to win the tournament. As for the tournament SMU over Vandy Creighton over Evansville Tulsa over SMS Bradley over Drake Semis - Bradley gets better results against SMU than any other Valley school (3-3-1 in SMU's affliation) and the canceled game means that SMU hasn't seen them yet which should make for a more interesting match. SMU generally dominates statistically but rarely are the games decided by more than one goal (or PKs like the last two tournament meetings). That said, SMU is the favorite going in but don't be shocked if BU pulls the upset. I'd have to imagine that the Creighton fans would be in BU's corner against the Mustangs which may/may not help. Either way I'd expect a close match based on the history of the two teams. As for Creighton/Tulsa. After seeing Tulsa's improved play in the past three outings I'd say Creighton will have its hands full. Lawson Vaughn is playing really well for the Golden Hurricane and will cause problems in the midfield for Creighton if they don't keep track of him. Going in I'd still give Creighton the nod based on the previous result and home field. The Bluejays shouldn't get 4 in this one and I look for this to be another tight game in the 2-1 range. Finals - Who knows...SMU is again the favorite but of the last six title games, three have gone to OT, one to PKs, and the other three one goal matches. SMU and Creighton have split the last 6 titles with BU being the opponent in 4 of the last 5. Only Creighton, SMU and Bradley have been in the final in the last 5 years with BU being in four, Creighton and SMU in three each.
I'll be attending the SMU game tomorrow against Vandy. I haven't seen them since early in the season so it'll be interesting to see how the players have developed in the interim.
If you really look at it, what did Creighton have to prove when they took that trip east. Regardless of the opponent it is always hard to win on the road. All you have to do is look at the stats over the years. Most upsets of top teams do not come at home, they take place on the road for the most part. As far as lower ranked conference teams upsetting the upper ones, anything can happen, but will it? Evansville has had two problems all year, scoring and stopping the other team from scoring. Giving up 50+ goals happened for a reason. Usually those type of things don't go away all of a sudden. Sure if you had your keeper out most of the year, or your best defender gone, but that has been the case for them. Creighton, SMU, Tulsa and a toss up for the 4th team in the semi's.
Re: If you really look at it, what did Creighton Chuckling. One of these days I'm gonna pay for a membership just so I can sig something like this.
Tulsa isn't a lock for the semis. SMS did beat them earlier this year. I'd say Creighton, SMU and toss up for the other two spots - leaning toward Tulsa/Bradley. Tulsa hasn't been that good in the MVC tournament in their time in the league. For some reason they have a tough time winning the quarter-final game. Last year they drew SMU after SMU struggles early in the regular season and lost, the year before they lost at SMS in 2OT, in 2001 Bradley beat them behind Gavin Glinton and Hamid Mehreioskouei goals.
Creighton gets revenge and beats Evansville 3-1 this evening at Michael G. Morrison (MGM) Stadium. More details to come. The Jays now advance to the MVC semi-finals next Friday in Omaha at the MGM.
SMU wins 2-0 over Vanderbilt in a not very convincing performance. Vandy was a header off the line away from leveling the match late in the 2nd half.
Creighton will be without #11 Biggerstaff, who received a red card for punching an Evansville player. (Or I think it was #11--at first, the ref tossed #16, then changed it to #11, so who knows how who will end up penalized. ) I don't know how long his suspension will be for this particular infraction--does the college only instituted one-game bans, or can it be longer?
The Jays win behind an early goal from freshman Tim Bohnenkamp and then two goals from Soph. Jarod Tarver to secure a 3-1 victory. As mentioned, Brian Biggerstaff received a red card, in addition the ref gave out 6 yellow cards. When it gets to be the end of the season for some teams, the play can get chippy since there's nothing to lose. Jays will next face either SMS or Tulsa next Friday. Omaha World-Herald Game Report CU Athletics Game Summary
Evansville - what is their score record for goals allowed? Giving up 57 has to be close, if not a school record. Could be worst, they could've been Bowling Green (0-19, 76 goals against and 19 for) or Lipscomb (0-17, soon to be 0-18 with 74 goals against and just 7 for). Ouch that had to hurt. Was it coaching? Were the players the "daddy"? One more year of that crew! After everything was said and done looked like a very bad recruiting year as well. Not much to build on. Someone is going to have to do a reall good selling job. How would you like to be the recruiter for Bowling Green or Lipscomb? "Excuse me, are you still breathing?" may be the best recruiting line.
Not that I told you guys...but, I told you guys. BU plays SMU tighter than any MVC side. here we go to PKs again...
Neadham (sp.) converts, 5-3 SMU. Ponies advance. SMU is now 14-3-1, Bradley is on the bubble at 10-6-3.
In the 37th minute, Tulsa leads Creighton 1-0 on a 33rd minute goal by Todd Goodard. http://livestats.www.collegesports.com/livestats/data/m-soccer/252037/gt_index.html
Thanks. I was trying to get it posted before the next round of PKs started and didn't have time to look it up.