Children come here so I can't say.. If MLS's plans work out and the league gradually improves... and there is some real TV revenue coming in 15 years or so down the road.. nobody can say for sure MLS won't be up there... Well some will say it but that's just as much speculation as guessing it will be a top league then.. So much has to go right.. The new stadiums popping up are surely a good start.. We may get a few more billionaire soccer fans on our side down the road too who want to help. The top players want more than just money, however, so there's got to be some "glory" for them over here too.. That's quite a ways off at this point, as is the top money. Of course top league needs some definition.. Top ten? Top five? Top ten could be very possible in 20 years or maybe less.. We'll just have to wait..
Of course Santa is real. He's flat mates with the Easter Bunny. But seriously, even if its not, ill still be watching. maybe.
If the league continues under the single entity structure, no. If they rapidly abandon the single entity structure, the league will fall apart. This is the dilema the league faces. Pretending to believe the league will steadily grow into a major league that will attract stars in their prime may be helpful in attracting long term sponsors (which is needed). However, the fact is that regular american sports fans who invest so much of their hearts and souls into teams from other sports aren't just going to give up their passion for teams who play a sport that they don't understand. A good amount of ticket sales comes from marketing to parents of youth players. This is great exposure, but it doesn't translate into the kind of fanbase large enough (or passionate enough) to demand the coverage neccessary for a "major" league. Just look at how playoff attendance in LA dropped off for the game with SJ. They just didn't have the time for a sales push. That wouldn't be neccessary if it were becoming a major league. Do I think MLS is doomed? Nope. I'm happy that the league is safe and growing off the field. I just don't think it will become a major league the way MLS executives think it will. I'd be extremely happy if MLS were to achieve a strong "niche" status like hockey.
Nice analysis, but why did you write this particular sentence? Suppose MLS had SEM and a team salary cap of $30 million. Wouldn't that be enough to attract "world-class" players?
Yes, it would be enough to attract "world-class" players. But would these "world-class" players be enough to generate $30 million in attendance and in TV viewership for the teams... here in the US... and on a consistant basis? Is the fandom here enough to make it feasible? It's uncertain. And the amount of $30 million is too much risk for this level of uncertainty.
Top league ??? No... IF MLS follows their policy, no way... To be a top league you need a huge fan base, a huge interest in american media, a big tv contract and most of the very best players in the world (and a lot of great american players)... In 10 years, MLS has still not reached the level of the MLF... But I trully believe that MLS will become a niche league... Just like the NHL... It will take a lot of time, maybe 30 years... But I seriously doubt MLS will be a major league in USA, because MLS does pretty much nothing to convert the non soccer fans in USA...
I tihnk you mean MFL. And this is a typical thing that is said about our league, that it isn't anywhere near the MFL. Let me ask, how long has the MFL been going. Got it? Now compare that to how long MLS has been going. I think you'll find that in ten years MLS has come such a long way, probably further than many expected. It's growing still, and will continue to do so. 15-20 years? Who knows, it would be unwise to say no. Who thought the national team would get to the 1/4 finals of the last WC, they were among the favourites to lose every game. Now they're up there among the so-called bigger teams. MLS will eventually become bigger within the States, give time though.
Good points, but I was responding to the original question... My point is If MLS has still not reached the MFL level in 10 years, I don't see how this league would be one of the top leagues in the world in 15 years or 20 years... Top league to me means amongst the Seria A, the EPL, la Liga, the BundesLiga, and the League 1... Those leagues have a lot of money and average way more people than MLS in the stands... The top teams in those leagues average more than 60000 people per game... It looks impossible to reach this level in US... The way MLS grows up, it seems impossible... But I trully believe that MLS will start to produce some very good american players in the next 20 years...
A general comment about the NHL - While it is perhaps a "niche" league in terms of followers in the U.S. it does have the best players in the world getting paid the best of any hockey league in the world... simply put - In hockey there is no bigger/better/more major league than the NHL. All other big sport U.S. leagues are the best leagues in the world for their respective sports (NBA, NFL, and MLB), in this way the NHL is just like those other leagues (it is the best in the world at its sport). Hence it gets a tremendous amount of respect globally and nationally from followers/fans of hockey and media. I don't think it likely that MLS will ever be on par with the NHL (or the Big 3 in the U.S.) in terms of it being the best league in the world at its sport. However, it should strive to be a respected, top league in the world (if not in the top 4-5, then in the top 10) and this is something I think is possible within the next 20 years... We truly do not know what impact the revenues form the stadiums will do for MLS - it's a whole differently game when the average team salary can be in the $10-20 million range. If owners choose to reinvest money into the product on the field (salaries), eventually the talent will rise.
The very fact that in a single entity structure, it would have to be every team spending $30 million. Since the league pays the players, this would bankrupt the league.
Can't see it myself. It doesn't have the fanbase to generate the revenue and therefore to bring in the best players. Nor does America have the culture and the participation to generate the top-class players. When you're having teams moving around, that's just going to kill the fanbase. Having more teams in the league might initially spread the talent too thinly, but it'll get more fans in and thus generate more of a footballing culture and so generate more money and revenue in the future.
While the league is always compared to the Big 3 sports, you have to compare them to when they were starting out. Back in the day the NFL was not the huge crowds when it started. The NBA wasn't sold out arenas and the MLB was huge stadiums with thousands of people. When these leagues began they only had a small fanbase until they made an impact on the country. So before you go and compare the MLS to the Big 3 and NHL first compare them to when they first began.
In USA i think NFL will be always the #1 sportto play. MLS will be the secondary sport in USA. but mls will catch up to the standards of A GOOD LEAGUE. I think the league will take about 35 yrs to get to be a top league because: 1 .MLS crowds will have to grow and some teams will get sell outs for every game(like lagalaxy, dc united because they got thee best attendance in MLS right now) 2 .USA and CONCACAF devolops better players with lots of skill. 3 .every team has a soccer specific stadium.
What do you mean the US doesn't have participation. Tell that to the 17,000,000 kids that play that. Maybe not all 17,000,000 will go onto play that sport later in life but I guess that a few million will.