Sorry for the short notice. GTA IV along with all else that life has to offer/demands is cutting things thin a bit. "Sleep isn't one of the 4 major food groups" -One of my college buddies a long time ago. DC United vs. Chicago 2.30 l 3.42 l 3.44 I'll take CHI. DC has largely been crap and CHI's only loss in the last umpteen regular season games was to KC 1-0 in what looks more and more to be a fluke. DC also has a long injury list. Big value on a nice chase number with CHI having mostly a full roster. This is one of those where you purposely take the short end as the odds demand it. IF you lose, well, you can't feel that bad about it. Barring another fluke, it's the Chicago Best Buys to win CHI@3.44 Houston vs. Colorado 2.10 l 3.30 l 3.75 Salt Lake vs. Dallas 2.80 l 3.25 l 2.50 San Jose vs. Columbus 3.10 l 3.25 l 2.30 Los Angeles vs. New York 2.25 l 3.30 l 3.15 Chivas vs. New England 2.45 l 3.25 l 2.90
Home team in CAPS. Games listed in order of confidence: LOS ANGELES (2.15) over New York (3.20) – The Red Bulls are crap on the road, and both Beckham and Donovan are hot right now. That just about settles it. Bodog sets the over/under at 2 ½ goals for every game – Los Angeles has gone over in every contest but one this season. Columbus (2.20) over SAN JOSE (2.90) – I’m nervous about this one. Adam Moffat will miss the game because of knee surgery (he’s out for a couple of weeks), and he’s been a big key to the Crew’s early season fortunes. The real question here is: How bad is San Jose? The answer? Two goals in six games. The squad did tie FC Dallas at home last week and blew a couple of golden opportunities to get a point against Chicago in the season home opener, though. Might be a good pick for the under – San Jose has not allowed more than two goals in an MLS match thus far. Would not be too surprised by a scoreless draw here, but I think Schelotto is good for a point somehow, and the Crew escapes with a road win. HOUSTON (2.10) over Colorado (3.20) – Houston looked much improved against Chivas USA last week, and only a fantastic effort from Guzan kept the Dynamo off the board. Colorado leads the Western Conference, which is kind of like being the least drunk at the 9 am intramural games in college. Colorado is 1-2 away from home and was severely outplayed against New England (outshot 17-4, 9-2 in shots on goal, etc.) in the team’s lone road win. The number is tempting to chase for Colorado, but betting on the Rapids on the road is usually a good way to lose money. Chicago (3.25) over DC UNITED (2.10) – There are reasons to take DC here; United is traditionally good at home, Chicago played on the road last week as well, etc. But 3.25 for the second best team in the league? Watch the injury wire here, as well: Fred could miss this match for DC, and he’s been United’s most dynamic player in 2008. Without him, I don’t know who picks up the slack. REAL SALT LAKE (2.60) over FC Dallas (2.45) – Probably the second biggest toss up of the week for me. RSL has one win on the season, over a tired, depleted (and crappy) DC United squad at home. But the squad has looked improved. FC Dallas, meanwhile has not lost on the road, tying at Houston and San Jose, and beating Chivas at the Home Depot Center. Espindola looks to be carrying a slight strain, but is likely to play. When in doubt, bet on home teams who play on horrible artificial surfaces, especially when they’re getting 2.60. New England (2.70) over CHIVAS USA (2.40) – Chivas will be missing half of its starting backline – Vaughn to injury and Suarez to red card suspension. Two of the Revs’ three 2008 wins have come on the road – at Kansas City and at Dallas. Chivas has already dropped one home game this year. Chivas’ attack should be improved, with Razov and Galindo both looking healthy and Kljestan looking strong behind them, but I can’t seem them stopping too much, if Nicol decides to attack.
Always nice to have 24.4 in the bank come the weekend. Even moreso as it comes at the expense of DC. Now if Blanco would just find a way to rupture 3-4 tendons... I'm pretty much in agreement with Freestyle mostly for the same reasons. Anyway, latest odds: Houston vs. Colorado 2.05 l 3.50 l 3.90 COL is crap away is a great rule. That HOU is only missing Davis and is way way way overdue for a blowout win is another. HOU@2.05 Salt Lake vs. Dallas 2.75 l 3.25 l 2.55 RSL had been playing over their heads especially at home for some time, that has wained recently. Dallas is 3-2-1 at RSL, not bad...explains much of the odds and does a bit to lessen the worry over turn and lack of O2. Betting slight road favorites is dangerous, but I like DAL to put some of the overcoming of pre-season and early season injuries behind them by beating an inferior team at altitude. Toja at 100% or close improves your team at every position. Toja and Cooper have nothing stopping them. DAL@2.55 San Jose vs. Columbus 3.20 l 3.25 l 2.30 Freestyle mentioned SJ can't score. CLB can and will. 2.3 on a road team is rare, pay attention to it. Plus I think that might be an overvalue on CLB, seriously. CLB@2.3 Los Angeles vs. New York 2.25 l 3.30 l 3.15 LA at home with Becks and Donovan picking people apart? Hmmm. I view this as a streak that must be played out until the end regardless of opponent. The only caution is that Angel is overdue. The confidence comes in that Angel can have a whale of a game and LA still might win by two. LA@2.25 Chivas vs. New England 2.45 l 3.25 l 2.90 Chivas is hurt, short, and flailing a little. NE good enough away vs anyone to win. 2.9 is big odds for the Revs anytime. NE@2.9 Good luck.
BIG big week thus far. 4-1 (plus I hit a three-team parlay for $140 - I know, I know, bad odds, but still fun). In addition, New England is looking like an even better bet today - Bornstein is out six to eight weeks for Chivas after a training injury, so only one regular backline starter for Chivas will open the match against the Revs. RS
Congrats on the parlay. Fantastic win! The best thing you can do from here foreward is to never make another bet on one ever. I know I'm lecturing, but for everone else... 3 possible results in a game (W, L, Draw) over 3 games is an effetive 26-1 all things being equal - 26 losing outcomes and only one way to win. All things being equal (they never are, but humor me), the above parlay paid 13-1, a $10 bet got back $140 or maybe netted $140 if miswritten. Either way, paying a volluntary 40% or above vig is impossible to overcome in the longrun. Even if the odds were taken on favorites within the parlay and the 26-1 melts to, say 16 or 17-1, it's still a huge vig (house advantage) that goes well and beyond any "house table game" you might find in your local casino or Vegas. Here's how sportbooks actually look at things...and therefore how you should also, BTW: 'Books want you to win. No seriously. They structure all numbers so that money is as equivalent as possible on every side of whatever number. Books must, as they are also vulnerable to sports being manipulated juut like everyone else. Better for them to leave the speculative risk to everyone else and be vollumn players. They, the 'Books, count on the vigorish or profit from all "equalized" money or equavalent money on both sides of a bet...or in soccer's case all three sides. The numbers will move or vary according to actual money bet to reflect equalization of sorts according to the math. The 'Books understand that the wins will cancel out the losses on equalized money and they the 'Books cash in on the 9% or more vigorish taken from all winning bets. On the rare occasions where money can't be equalized or overcome, then they find other outlets to accept the speculative risk left over. 'Books want you to win, it's the ONLY way they make money long term. Not only do most winners come back and make more bets thereby increasing the total vig (even if they continue to win), but often winners will annouce the win to people. 'Books want you to win and they don't care about one win here or there, they want high vollumn that leads to high vig. This is exactly why 'Books offer parlays in the first place. Seductively big return for the better. For the 'Book, they exchange that for a bigger losing end and a bigger vig on the winning bets as well. Great deal for them. That said, if you hit it, fantastic! You've overcome the world. Be cautious attempting it again. On to this week. 4-2 for me. I usually make money in weeks without draws. LA reverted to charitable form. Houston got a little lucky with the red to Colorado and the late pk to cash in. I'll take it. RSL is apparently pretty good on the literal home turf. Wow. CLB scores at will and wins. All they do is beat you by 1 unless they beat you by 2 late, regardless of circumstances. The schedule will get harder. Chicago has just one loss in its' last 15 league games; the Blanco Era everyone...love a green rat today... Overall 23-25 on the season straight with the 1 unit/game results and +8.3 units overall. Not spectacular by any stretch, but positive. About a 17% return to date. Beats the market lately... I've been admittedly a little fortunate late int he game to snag a result every week and I can't say I've devoted alot of time here either and I've definitely dropped some details occasionally. That's worrisome. But, again, it's good to be wary as risk is high. You want safe? Buy investment grade life insurance... KC, DAL, and LA have been difficult to peg week in and week out. Chivas' constant injury problems on Thursday and Friday (read: after the report goes out) have been expensive also. Draws have been about 24%, the low end of a normal range. Good luck next week.
Don't listen to your mother, kids...have cake for breakfast. Seriously - I buy the occasional lottery ticket, too. Putting a couple of bucks on parlays (and I actually made a LOT of money on parlays last season, thanks to a highly predictable summer) is fun. You're right - as I said in my original post, the odds suck. But if I spend $60-70 per week on straight bets, then place $5 or $10 on a parlay, I'm not going broke. And since this is not my sole source of income, this is fun. Remember, you don't gamble to win. You gamble for more gambling time. RS
Yeah, a buck on powerball is worth it evertertainment wise and I drink occasionally. Other people smoke or eat a fast food diet. I'm not judging, just setting out other info for people who may not have your (or my) particualr set of sensibilities. For whatever else, the lure of easy money because someone else did it is constant. Gambling is dangerous. Not having a handgun in your home with children dangerous, but still. I'd only suggest to anyone entertaining parlays that they keep track of every single parlay wager WITH corresponding odds to like bets on the single games. This to both see if more money is made one vs the other (for each individual's choices, not mine) and if any money is being made at all. Craps, poker, sports betting, investments, whatever, same deal. Winners keep score. Bottom line, a no-brainer simple annuity WILL net 6% or so devoid of anytaxation while growing, without ANY risk whatsoever. It ain't sexy, but money is money. Gotta do better than 6% or why bother?